# Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Pacífico Leste e Central 2018)



## luismeteo3 (4 Jul 2018 às 20:16)




----------



## rokleon (22 Jul 2018 às 09:20)

Duas perturbações <10% de probabilidade de formação. 

No Atlântico Oeste nada. Anomalia das SSTs pouco elevada ou negativa a 19/7, na zona típica de formação:


----------



## rokleon (26 Jul 2018 às 20:29)

rokleon disse:


> Duas perturbações <10% de probabilidade de formação.



Aumentou para 70% a possibilidade de formação ciclónica dessas duas perturbações. No Atlântico ainda nenhuma perturbação.
Vamos acompanhando...


----------



## luismeteo3 (6 Ago 2018 às 22:28)




----------



## luismeteo3 (7 Ago 2018 às 11:10)




----------



## luismeteo3 (7 Ago 2018 às 11:15)




----------



## luismeteo3 (8 Ago 2018 às 23:04)




----------



## rokleon (9 Ago 2018 às 19:45)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 15:25)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 15:32)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 15:43)

WTPA22 PHFO 211433
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY AND MAUI
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 152.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT


----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 16:17)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 17:57)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 17:59)

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/image...a3a9e141ce6239986b5748f7a788e77ba64307102.gif


----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 18:16)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 18:43)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 19:08)

* MAJOR HURRICANE LANE MOVING WESTEXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY *
800 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
Location: 14.1N 152.6W
Maximum sustained winds: 155 MPH
Moving: W at 9 MPH
Minimum pressure: 940 MB


----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 19:15)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 19:54)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 20:58)

*O furacão Lane acaba de atingir a categoria 5! 934Mb,* *137kts at surface*


----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 21:08)

Excerpt from the Hurricane Watch on the South Big Island. Rainfall poses the highest threat.

Flooding rain
LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect

Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional More than two feet

POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for extreme flooding rain

PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for extreme flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely.

PREPARE: Urgently consider protective actions from extreme and widespread rainfall flooding.

ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic

Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and rescues.

Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.

Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

(http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl... )


----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 21:57)

luismeteo3 disse:


> *O furacão Lane acaba de atingir a categoria 5! 934Mb,* *137kts at surface*


136 knots
(~ 156.5 mph)

931.5 mb
(~ 27.51 inHg)


----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 22:05)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 22:19)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Ago 2018 às 22:32)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 09:40)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 09:55)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 10:41)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 12:09)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 13:02)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 14:33)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 15:45)




----------



## Orion (22 Ago 2018 às 16:21)




----------



## KarluZ (22 Ago 2018 às 16:40)

luismeteo3 disse:


>



Falta uma explicação destas imagens, certo?


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 16:43)

KarluZ disse:


> Falta uma explicação destas imagens, certo?


Não não é certo. É informação útil para quem percebe. Isto é a estrutura interna do Furacão Lane nos vários parâmetros.


----------



## KarluZ (22 Ago 2018 às 16:56)

São seis imagens que colocou, se percebe pode começar a explicar uma a uma, não é para isso que serve o forum ?


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 16:58)

KarluZ disse:


> São seis imagens que colocou, se percebe pode começar a explicar uma a uma, não é para isso que serve o forum ?


Pois, mas eu não percebo. Mas é importante para quem percebe!


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 17:01)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 17:03)

*12Z GFS com landfall em Maui*


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 17:05)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 17:07)




----------



## rokleon (22 Ago 2018 às 17:08)

KarluZ disse:


> São seis imagens que colocou, se percebe pode começar a explicar uma a uma, não é para isso que serve o forum ?


Os títulos e cada gráfico estão em inglês. São secções de latitude fixa (cortes vertivais) em altitude (no caso, em níveis de pressão, pressão essa que diminui com o aumento da altitude). V e U wind são os ventos nas componentes N-S e W-E respetivamente. Mostrados em milhas por hora. RH é humidade relativa em inglês. Potential Temperature é Temperatura Potêncial ( temperatura de uma parcela de ar é definida como a temperatura que a parcela teria se fosse expandida ou comprimida adiabaticamente de seu estado real de pressão e temperatura para uma pressão padrão (geralmente 1000 mb) -- parâmetro útil para identificação de convecção pois o ar sobe aproximadamente sem trocas de calor ou seja, adiabaticamente). Vertical Velocity, velocidade vertical, que aponta para cotas superiores. Maneira muito sintética de explicar, mas não tenho tempo de me alongar.


----------



## rokleon (22 Ago 2018 às 17:11)

Cat. 5, com vel. máxima de cerca de 160milhas/h  255 km/h


----------



## rokleon (22 Ago 2018 às 18:03)

[


rokleon disse:


> Os títulos e cada gráfico estão em inglês. São secções de latitude fixa (cortes vertivais) em altitude (no caso, em níveis de pressão, pressão essa que diminui com o aumento da altitude). V e U wind são os ventos nas componentes N-S e W-E respetivamente. Mostrados em milhas por hora. RH é humidade relativa em inglês. Potential Temperature é Temperatura Potêncial ( temperatura de uma parcela de ar é definida como a temperatura que a parcela teria se fosse expandida ou comprimida adiabaticamente de seu estado real de pressão e temperatura para uma pressão padrão (geralmente 1000 mb) -- parâmetro útil para identificação de convecção pois o ar sobe aproximadamente sem trocas de calor ou seja, adiabaticamente). Vertical Velocity, velocidade vertical, que aponta para cotas superiores. Maneira muito sintética de explicar, mas não tenho tempo de me alongar.


*EDIT: os 3 perfis de cima são zonais e os 3 de baixo meridionais, lat constante e lon constante respetivamente


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 18:12)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 18:15)

*HWRF 12Z run. 972 mb Maui*


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 18:31)




----------



## vitamos (22 Ago 2018 às 18:34)

Várias conversas paralelas (e respostas, por consequência) foram eliminadas... Facilitem o trabalho e contribuam para o tópico apenas. Obrigado


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 19:11)

*Isto impressiona!*


----------



## Orion (22 Ago 2018 às 19:19)

luismeteo3 disse:


> *Isto impressiona!*



O mais relevante é a abrangência dos ventos (ficando o resto para a fotografia). Felizmente, o mais severo deve passar ao lado.


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 19:21)

Orion disse:


> O mais relevante é a abrangência dos ventos (ficando o resto para a fotografia). Felizmente, o mais severo deve passar ao lado.


Em princípio os maiores perigos vão ser a grande quantidade de chuva e os deslizamentos de terras...


----------



## Orion (22 Ago 2018 às 19:40)

Com tal dispersão, é inevitável encontrar um ou outro modelo com cenários apocalíticos.

Novamente, a nebulosidade fica para a fotografia (e mesmo no HWRF os ventos mais severos ficam no mar).



luismeteo3 disse:


>


----------



## Orion (22 Ago 2018 às 19:49)

59 mms de água precipitável é muita fruta. Como é habitual, a chuva estratiforme pode, e irá em muitos locais, gerar colossais acumulados.

Resumindo, o acompanhamento pode ser feito em 3 contas  https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu / https://twitter.com/HawaiiNewsNow / https://twitter.com/Hawaii_EMA


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Ago 2018 às 20:00)




----------



## KarluZ (22 Ago 2018 às 20:24)

Beatos, era apenas uma piada, não conhecem a piada do when it's wet it's time to go inside ? 
Décadas depois do salazarismo deveriam bastar para haver algum humor em Portugal mas está dificil



luismeteo3 disse:


> *Isto impressiona!*



Vou então agora tentar novamente sem piadas, porque é que essa imagem impressiona ?


----------



## Orion (22 Ago 2018 às 22:02)

Não deixa de ser interesse a disparidade - que começa a sudoeste da ilha principal - entre o atual GFS (azul) e o novo (castanho) em termos do trajeto (que não se verifica na intensidade).

Muita incerteza ainda na previsão final:


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 09:29)




----------



## Cinza (23 Ago 2018 às 09:41)

*Será fiável de seguir??*


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 09:48)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 09:49)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 09:54)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 10:10)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 11:23)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 11:59)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 14:56)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 15:21)




----------



## Orion (23 Ago 2018 às 18:26)

Há uma boia muito próxima do ciclone  https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51002&uom=M&tz=STN


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 19:37)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 19:45)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 20:11)




----------



## Orion (23 Ago 2018 às 20:17)

luismeteo3 disse:


>



A malta do CPHC explica o porquê:



> The track and intensity forecast are extremely dependent on one another in the current forecast scenario, with Lane expected to move generally toward the north while it remains a hurricane, and generally toward the west once it weakens. Confidence in the forecast is reduced because it is uncertain how Lane's core will be impacted by its potential interaction with island terrain, and the subsequent rate of weakening. Regardless of whether Lane's center moves over one of the Hawaiian Islands, an increasing amount of southwesterly shear along the forecast track will lead to significant weakening. If Lane's core were to move over one of the islands as has been consistently depicted by GFS/HWRF, then the cyclone would weaken even more rapidly. EMX2 is on the left side of the guidance and indicates less interaction with island terrain, and therefore a slightly slower rate of weakening.
> 
> Based on a preponderance of evidence presented by the guidance, the updated forecast indicates a faster rate of weakening than indicated earlier, especially on days 2 and 3. The expectation is that Lane will weaken due to the combined and cumulative effects of debilitating shear and the interruption of the circulation due to proximity to the high mountains of Maui and the Big Island. The official intensity forecast now closely follows IVCN, SHIPS and the ECMWF-based SHIPS. The track forecast anticipates this weakening, with Lane turning sharply toward the west on day 3. Until then, the forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous forecast through Friday, bringing Lane northward and very close to the Big Island and Maui County. This is similar to the multi-model consensus HCCA, which includes GFS and HWRF as weighted members. A slow forward speed is expected as this occurs, with Lane then moving more quickly toward west as it becomes shallow and carried by the low-level trade wind flow.


----------



## rokleon (23 Ago 2018 às 20:23)

Cinza disse:


> *Será fiável de seguir??*


Talvez mas não sendo uma entidade como NOAA, p. exemplo, a reportar pode não ser totalmente fiável...

---
Do Public Advisory #36A do NHC:


> (...)
> HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
> ----------------------
> WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
> ...


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 20:36)




----------



## Orion (23 Ago 2018 às 23:12)

> This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
> The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the 12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be in better agreement with the ECMWF.



Novo aviso, mesmo raciocínio.


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 23:15)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Ago 2018 às 23:22)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 00:24)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 10:34)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 10:37)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 11:58)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 12:10)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 20:04)

O furacão Lane em aproximação ás ilhas do Hawai praticamente parou naquela posição o que vai aumentar a precipitação...


----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 20:07)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 20:09)

WTPA62 PHFO 241857
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
900 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE CRAWLING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

The poorly defined eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both
the North Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

A summary of peak winds will be issued later this morning.

As 840 am HST
Lahaina, Maui 37 MPH(59 KM/H) Gusts 54 MPH (85 KM/H)

Radar based location of the low level center of Lane is
unreliable. This will be the last location based on radar, unless 
development occurs. The previous location follows.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W 
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII 
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H 
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Lau


----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 20:38)




----------



## luismeteo3 (24 Ago 2018 às 22:32)




----------



## luismeteo3 (25 Ago 2018 às 09:42)




----------



## luismeteo3 (25 Ago 2018 às 12:13)




----------



## luismeteo3 (25 Ago 2018 às 16:50)




----------



## luismeteo3 (26 Ago 2018 às 20:53)




----------



## luismeteo3 (26 Ago 2018 às 20:54)




----------



## rokleon (27 Ago 2018 às 20:52)

Lane é resiliência em "pessoa" 
Atualmente como TT, mas irá inevitavelmente para Norte e dissipará rapido, de vez.





(nhc)


----------



## luismeteo3 (29 Ago 2018 às 20:42)




----------



## luismeteo3 (30 Ago 2018 às 13:46)




----------



## luismeteo3 (30 Ago 2018 às 13:47)

226 
WTPZ31 KNHC 301230
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norman Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
530 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

...NORMAN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 117.7W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


----------



## luismeteo3 (30 Ago 2018 às 14:08)




----------



## luismeteo3 (30 Ago 2018 às 16:00)

Norman has rapidly strengthened during the past 12 to 24 hours,
with the development of a well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye and a thick
ring of cold cloud tops of -70 to -85C. Dvorak constraints have
limited the amount of increase in the subjective and objective final
T-numbers, but the most recent raw data T-numbers are between T6.5
and T7.2, which yields an initial intensity estimate of 130 kt.
Norman's intensity has increased an estimated 70 kt from 1200 UTC
yesterday morning to 1200 UTC this morning- the fastest in the
basin since Patricia in 2015. Norman has become the 5th category 4
hurricane in the eastern Pacific in 2018 and is also the strongest
hurricane in the basin so far this season.


----------



## luismeteo3 (31 Ago 2018 às 20:40)




----------



## luismeteo3 (2 Set 2018 às 15:46)

*973 
WTPZ31 KNHC 021437
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

...NORMAN HAS MADE A REMARKABLE COME BACK AND BECOMES A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 129.1W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES*


----------



## luismeteo3 (2 Set 2018 às 15:57)




----------



## luismeteo3 (4 Set 2018 às 21:55)

*...OLIVIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...*

2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 4
Location: 16.9°N 119.2°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph


----------



## luismeteo3 (6 Set 2018 às 13:25)




----------



## luismeteo3 (6 Set 2018 às 22:00)




----------



## luismeteo3 (6 Set 2018 às 22:09)




----------



## luismeteo3 (7 Set 2018 às 13:36)




----------



## luismeteo3 (7 Set 2018 às 15:15)




----------



## luismeteo3 (7 Set 2018 às 19:09)




----------



## luismeteo3 (7 Set 2018 às 20:01)




----------



## luismeteo3 (9 Set 2018 às 00:17)




----------



## luismeteo3 (10 Set 2018 às 14:26)




----------



## luismeteo3 (12 Set 2018 às 21:55)




----------



## luismeteo3 (15 Set 2018 às 22:22)




----------



## luismeteo3 (19 Set 2018 às 17:21)




----------



## luismeteo3 (19 Set 2018 às 18:20)

~

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 110.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this motion is expected to become more north-northeast
tonight with a similar forward motion until the system dissipates on
Thursday. On the forecast track the depression is forecast to move
inland over northwestern Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant strengthening is expected before the system moves
inland over mainland northwestern Mexico, then steady weakening is
forecast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this
disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of
flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Set 2018 às 14:25)




----------



## luismeteo3 (27 Set 2018 às 19:57)




----------



## luismeteo3 (30 Set 2018 às 16:47)




----------



## luismeteo3 (1 Out 2018 às 16:26)




----------



## luismeteo3 (1 Out 2018 às 21:25)




----------



## luismeteo3 (1 Out 2018 às 21:48)

WTPA31 PHFO 012040
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

*...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WALAKA STILL INTENSIFYING FAR SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...*

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


----------



## luismeteo3 (2 Out 2018 às 20:15)

Hurricane Sergio Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1145 AM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018

.*..SERGIO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...*

Satellite imagery indicates that Sergio is quickly strengthening,
and maximum sustained winds have increased to an estimated 115 mph
(185 km/h), with higher gusts. This increase in intensity will be
reflected in the intensity forecast issued in the 2 PM PDT (2100
UTC) advisory package.

SUMMARY OF 1145 AM PDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 114.7W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCH


----------



## luismeteo3 (4 Out 2018 às 15:04)




----------



## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2018 às 13:21)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Out 2018 às 19:55)

*Furacão Willa*

12:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 21
Location: 16.8°N 106.9°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 105 mp


----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Out 2018 às 20:00)




----------



## luismeteo3 (21 Out 2018 às 20:09)




----------



## Orion (21 Out 2018 às 23:07)

Está quase, o aniversário do _landfall_.


----------



## Éire (22 Out 2018 às 07:19)

E agora ha Willa, Cat 4, possivelmente 5 antes do landfall em México amanhã.


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 14:17)

8 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018
Position 18.7 N 107.3 W
Maximum Winds 155 mph Gusts 190 mph
Movement N at 6 mph
Minimum Pressure 931 mb


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 14:24)

*Hurricane WILLA
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 22, 2018:*

Location: 18.7°N 107.2°W
Maximum Winds: 140 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 925 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 14:38)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 15:57)

*Furacão Willa já é oficialmente Furacão Categoria 5!

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES




*


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 16:25)




----------



## Éire (22 Out 2018 às 17:23)

Willa é o terceiro Cat 5 deste ano nesta região.


----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 17:31)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 19:04)




----------



## luismeteo3 (22 Out 2018 às 19:18)




----------



## Éire (23 Out 2018 às 07:03)

Willa enfraqueceu durante a noite e, seguendo o SHIPS LGEM, o landfall será 90-95 nós (Cat 2-3). Menos severo, mais ainda severo.

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an
SSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the
northern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over
the past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt
based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from
TAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and
that moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is
expected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast
through landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24
hours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the
forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-
threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas
Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on
Tuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
Moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread
northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a
swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

The initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to
gradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge
centered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the
northwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly
left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and
lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA
consensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed
of the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast
remains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED


----------



## Éire (23 Out 2018 às 07:09)

Willa enfraqueceu durante a noite e o landfall, segundo o SHIPS LGEM, será 90-95 nós  (Cat 2-3). Menos severo, mais ainda severo. 

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an
SSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the
northern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over
the past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt
based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from
TAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and
that moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is
expected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast
through landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24
hours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the
forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-
threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas
Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on
Tuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
Moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread
northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a
swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

The initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to
gradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge
centered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the
northwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly
left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and
lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA
consensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed
of the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast
remains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Out 2018 às 12:54)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Out 2018 às 13:40)




----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Out 2018 às 14:57)

*Hurricane Willa*
6:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 23
Location: 21.1°N 107.1°W
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph


*FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS*

INIT 23/0900Z 20.8N 107.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Out 2018 às 16:37)




----------



## Éire (23 Out 2018 às 16:47)

Observações sa superficia ao vivo...

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom...wind,rh,gust,slp&obs_popup=true&obs_density=1

Aircraft recon, dados Mission 2 ao vivo


----------



## luismeteo3 (23 Out 2018 às 19:12)




----------



## luismeteo3 (1 Nov 2018 às 21:44)




----------

