# Ciclone Tropical DEZASSEIS (Atlântico 2019 #AL16)



## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 16:15)

* ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... *


Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Oct 2019 14:27 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.


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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 16:18)




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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 16:19)




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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 16:21)

000
WTNT31 KNHC 171456
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida


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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 19:20)




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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 19:58)




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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 20:03)




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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 21:49)

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico described
in the previous advisory continues to evolve. Recent
scatterometer data shows that the tropical disturbance in the
southwestern Gulf has a circulation elongated north-northeast to
south-southwest, with winds of 30-35 kt occurring in the
southwestern quadrant. However, the system currently has neither
sufficient convection or a well-enough defined center to be
designated a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The disturbance
remains in close proximity to a mid- to upper-level low moving
across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico and a frontal system
over the northern and northwestern Gulf. One change from the
previous global model guidance is the the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off of their forecasts of a separate baroclinic low to the north of
the disturbance. Instead, the global models are in reasonable
agreement that the disturbance, along with whatever vorticity
centers form along the front, will be part of a large low pressure
area that will affect portions of the northern Gulf coast and the
southeastern United States.

The initial motion of the disturbance is now 020/8. There is little
change in the forecast track philosophy, the track guidance, or the
NHC forecast track. The system should soon turn northeastward in
the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track
model guidance agrees on a continued northeastward motion through at
least 72 h. The forecast track, which is in best agreement with the
HCCA corrected consensus model, brings the system across the
southeastern United States between 36-72 h, and then has it moving
into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence
caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear.
Based on this, the intensity forecast again calls for gradual
strengthening until landfall in agreement with the global model
forecasts. While it remains unlikely that the system will develop
into a classical tropical cyclone, the ECMWF and GFS models suggest
enough organized convection will develop before landfall to make the
system a tropical or subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the
cyclone is forecast to become fully extratropical and gradually
weaken.

Regardless of the exact evolution, portions of the northern coast of
the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy
rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are
expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern
United States Saturday and Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the
southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to
the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 18/1800Z 26.9N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 37.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN


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## luismeteo3 (17 Out 2019 às 23:18)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 13:01)

7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18

Location: 25.1°N 91.2°W

Moving: NE at 21 mph

Min pressure: 1004 mb

Max sustained: 40 mph


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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 14:05)

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

*...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...*

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 14:27)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 14:29)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 14:39)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 14:50)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 15:20)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 15:49)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 15:59)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 16:27)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 17:08)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 17:11)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 18:01)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 18:38)

*Tempestade tropical Nestor agora...*

*...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...*
1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 18
Location: 26.3°N 89.5°W
Moving: NE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 18:43)

_Satellite imagery and ship and buoy data indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure system has become better defined,
and the disturbance is now Tropical Storm Nestor._

_At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Nestor is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later
today and tonight and move inland across portions of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday._

_Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, with weakening
forecast after Nestor moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose
tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday._


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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 18:54)




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## luismeteo3 (18 Out 2019 às 19:42)




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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 10:37)

...WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA...
*...NESTOR GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...* 

4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19
Location: 29.0°N 86.0°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 12:38)




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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 12:40)




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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 12:44)




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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 14:32)




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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 14:33)

Updated October 19, 2019 at 12:00 UTC

Remnants of NESTOR
Located at 29.5°N, 86.8°W
Minimum Pressure: 996mb
Maximum Wind: 45kt
Recently renumbered from Invest 96L


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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 19:06)




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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 19:08)




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## luismeteo3 (19 Out 2019 às 19:09)




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