# Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/PDO/etc- 2008



## Vince (6 Mar 2008 às 23:10)

Tópico de monitoramento e discussão de Teleconexões em 2008, em especial a ENSO (El Nino-Oscilacao Sul), Oscilação Atlântico Norte (OAN/NAO ) e a Oscilação do Ártico (OA/AO), etc.


*Links úteis:*


*ENSO - El Nino-Oscilação Sul / El Niño-Southern Oscillation*

 NOOA Climate Prediction Center - El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
 BOM Australia Seasonal Outlooks ENSO Wrap-Up


*NAO - Oscilação Atlântico Norte - North Atlantic oscillation*

 NOAA Climate Prediction Center - NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
 North Atlantic Oscillation
 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
 North Atlantic Oscillation


*AO - Oscilação Ártico / Arctic Oscillation*

 Climate Prediction Center - Arctic Oscillation
 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
 Arctic Oscillation (AO) time series


*AAO Oscilação Antártica - Antarctic Oscillation *

 Antarctic Oscillation - Climate Prediction Center


*PNA Padrão Pacífico-América do Norte / Pacific North American Pattern*

 Climate Prediction Center - Pacific/North American Pattern


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## Vince (6 Mar 2008 às 23:11)

*Re: Monitoramento Teleconexões (ENSO/NAO/AO/etc) - 2008*

Evolução nos últimos meses do indíce NAO e previsões até 17 Março.


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## Vince (6 Mar 2008 às 23:14)

*Re: Monitoramento Teleconexões (ENSO/NAO/AO/etc) - 2008*

O último relatório disponibilizado hoje pelo CPC sobre a situação da «La Ninã»



> *Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.*
> 
> Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during February 2008 continued to reflect a strong La Niña. Equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C below average across large portions of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and the corresponding weekly values of the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices remained between -1.6°C and -2.1°C during the month (Fig. 2). In contrast, SSTs in the far eastern equatorial Pacific were above average during February 2008, in association with a warming trend that began in mid-December. The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the oceans between 180° - 100°W) remained below average across the equatorial Pacific during February (Fig. 3), with the largest temperature anomalies averaging -2°C to -6°C at thermocline depth (Fig. 4). Consistent with these oceanic conditions, stronger-than-average low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those accompanying the last strong La Niña episode in 1998-2000.
> 
> ...




*Anomalias*







*Anomalias por Região Nino.*


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## Mário Barros (6 Mar 2008 às 23:30)

*Re: Monitoramento Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

Já está a entrar em terreno positivo ai vem a chuva 

Será que se irão repetir os cenários de 2001 na Europa durante o Verão ?


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## Vince (12 Abr 2008 às 14:55)

*Re: Monitoramento Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

*ENSO*














> *La Niña is expected to continue for the next 3 months.*
> La Niña declined to moderate-strength during March 2008 as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly SSTs are more than 1.0°C below average in areas between 160°E and 120°W (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices warmed during March (Fig. 2), with only the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions having values nearly 1.0°C below average. Above-average SSTs remained restricted to the far eastern equatorial Pacific in association with a significant warming trend that began in mid-December. In the central Pacific, the subsurface temperature anomalies also lessened (averaging -1°C to -4°C at thermocline depth), and became increasingly confined to the surface region (Fig. 3). This evolution led to a significant weakening of the negative ocean heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean; Fig 4). Despite this oceanic trend, the atmospheric conditions continue to strongly reflect La Niña. Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate an ongoing, but weaker, La Niña.
> 
> The recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region indicate La Niña will become weak and persist through May-June-July 2008 (Fig. 5). Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the forecasts, with nearly one-half indicating La Niña could continue well into the second half of the year. Based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends, La Niña is expected to continue for the next 3 months.
> ...


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## Vince (12 Abr 2008 às 14:56)

*Re: Monitoramento Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

A La Ninã continua a enfraquecer, e é possível que fique neutral nos próximos meses.



> *La Niña weakens further, especially in the east*
> 
> The La Niña event in the Pacific basin has continued to weaken during the past two weeks, with the surface of the equatorial Pacific warming by about 0.1 to 0.2°C. While western Pacific surface temperatures remain typical for a La Niña event, eastern Pacific temperatures have now been out of the La Niña range for the last five weeks. Below the surface, the cold water in the eastern Pacific has continued to warm and decrease in volume.
> 
> ...


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


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## Paulo H (20 Abr 2008 às 19:02)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

*Outros links muito interessantes:*

*http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/research/publications/PDF/Primary/NOI.pdf*

Aborda as teleconexões entre vários índices (NOI, SOI, NEP), dando relevância à sua melhor aplicação - fenómenos ambientais, biológicos e flutuações climáticas.

"5. Conclusions

The NOI and SOI time series are generally similar, but provide distinct perspectives on a range of climate variations. Their disparities result mainly from differences between tropical and Northern Hemi-sphere extratropical variability on interannual scales, which are the result of such things as differences in the proximity and strength of major energy sources for climatic variations (e.g. western tropical Pacific warm pool, Asian monsoon region, subtropical jets, NEP ocean temperature anomalies). A number of studies have shown that the SOI is strongly correlated with many environmental and biological parameters in the NEP. This correspondence may be more a product of the general correlation of SLP in the Asia-Pacific region to the NEP (cf. Fig. 2a) than to a direct physical link. Both the NOI and the SOI have merits, but for the NEP, the NOI appears to be equal or superior in terms of statistical correlations, and a more relevant index of the physical mechanisms responsible for environmental variability.
The NPH is a major link between the atmosphere and ocean in the NEP. Because of the role of the NPH in the H-W circulation, its variations are a good indicator of the impacts of large-scale climate change on the NEP. NPH variations also summarize the regional mechanisms responsible for oceanic anomalies in the NEP, since they are linked closely to the surface winds that drive oceanic processes. Thus an index based on the NPH is likely to be well correlated with climate change events over the North Pacific-North American region, including a wide range of upper ocean changes in the NEP. Because the ocean in the NEP responds to regional atmospheric forcing as well as to teleconnections from the tropical Pacific, the NOI embodies both local and remote forcing mechanisms, and therefore represents more sources of variation in the NEP than a purely tropically or extratropically based index (e.g. the SOI or NPH alone). Climate processes known to have large physical and biological impacts on the NEP are well represented by the NOI. The encouraging relationships between the NOI and a variety of physical and biological data series suggests this index may be a reliable indicator of climate fluctuations in the NEP, and provides insights on the mechanisms linking the physical environment to marine resources."
_*in "The Northern Oscillation Index (NOI): A new climate index for the northeast Pacific F.B. Schwing a,∗, T. Murphree b, P.M. Green c"*_


*http://www.metsul.com*

Ver também: http://www.metsul.com/secoes/?cod_subsecao=57


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## Vince (30 Abr 2008 às 18:08)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

Bem, cabe-me dar a boa nova destes dias aos amantes do frio. Resta saber se são mesmo boas notícias para a alimentação mundial e os preços já inflacionados da energia.

A NASA chegou à conclusão que apesar da La Ninã estar a enfraquecer o alastrar de águas mais frias no Pacífico indicam que estamos possivelmente perante algo que tem sinais de parecer a entrada na fase fria de um padrão chamada *Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico (PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation)*. 
Este padrão é menos falado porque temporalmente pode durar 2 ou 3 décadas ao contrário dos Ninos/Ninas que duram de 6 a 18 meses. A confirmar-se e daquilo que se sabe pode ter implicações no clima mundial pois está relacionado com frio, La Ninãs mais intensas e El Ninos mais fracos e curtos. A última vez que se entrou numa fase fria desta oscilação foi em 1946 que se manteve até aos anos 70.

Ainda não há certezas absolutas pois em 1998 (e noutras ocasiões) no fim de uma La Ninã também houve sinais de entramos numa fase destas que não se manteve, tivemos até um El Nino muito poderoso logo em cima disso.









> *La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cool the Pacific*
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> ...





> *Larger Pacific Climate Event Helps Current La Nina Linger*
> 
> PASADENA, Calif. – Boosted by the influence of a larger climate event in the Pacific, one of the strongest La Niñas in many years is slowly weakening but continues to blanket the Pacific Ocean near the equator, as shown by new sea-level height data collected by the U.S.-French Jason oceanographic satellite.
> 
> ...


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## Vince (18 Jun 2008 às 15:05)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

Continua a tendência para uma fase neutral do ENSO e o fim próximo da La Ninã mas que ainda inflencia o padrão de ventos. O CPC/NCEP não prevê que entremos num El Nino pelo menos até ao final do ano.



> *ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
> Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
> *16 June 2008
> 
> ...





Os australianos tem a mesma opinião:



> *ENSO Wrap-Up
> A regular commentary on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
> *CURRENT STATUS as at 18th June 2008
> 
> ...


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## Mário Barros (28 Jul 2008 às 03:24)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

O Atlântico estara bem instável nos próximos tempos  devido há NAO  mas depois alguma estabilidade a partir de dia 1.


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## Mário Barros (17 Ago 2008 às 19:54)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

Parece que estamos no pico da estabilidade da NAO, a qualquer momento ela começará a entrar numa fase mais negativa  e já sabemos no que isso pode resultar   provavelmente ao longo dos próximos tempos iremos assistir a uma diminuição não só do tamanho do AA como o seu consequente enfraquecimento.


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## Mário Barros (20 Ago 2008 às 15:52)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

A relação entre o jet stream e a NAO 









Fonte


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## Agreste (19 Out 2008 às 18:43)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

Altura de actualizar os dados. Parece que os próximos 15 dias serão *Cold & Dry*...


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## psm (9 Nov 2008 às 10:22)

*Re: Monitorização Teleconexões ENSO/NAO/AO/etc- 2008*

Venho apresentar uma das variaveis para nós termos uma situação não muito favoravel para condições de instabilidade. A temperatura da água do mar no Atlantico norte

Aqui poderemos ver a variação entre os valores negativos em relação à normal e positivos, com a média da temperatura da água do mar, a nivel mundial.






No 2º podemos ver a temperatura como se apresenta na sua forma normal.






ps: Devo salientar, que nesta situação de bloqueio anticiclonico agora presente, tem como principal razão estar a acontecer nos altos niveis da atmosfera.


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## Vince (11 Dez 2008 às 15:54)

*pdo:*



> *oscillation rules as the pacific cools*
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