# Ciclones Tropicais na Austrália e Pacífico Sul - 2015/2016



## Orion (29 Out 2015 às 21:03)

Temporada começa a 1 de Novembro de 2015 e termina a 30 de Abril de 2016.

Previsões:

*El Niño likely to decrease Australian cyclone numbers*

A less active Australian tropical cyclone season (November–April) is expected for 2015–16.
This outlook is driven by a strong El Niño which typically reduces the number of cyclones observed in the Australian region.
During El Niño seasons, the average date of the first tropical cyclone to cross the coast (second week of January) is later than during neutral years.
El Niño typically reduces the number of coastal crossings, but at least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coast each cyclone season since reliable records began in the 1970s.
Northern Australian coastal regions should still prepare for the cyclone season.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.shtml#tabs=Summary












----






http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/Tropical_Cyclone_Guidance_2015_16.pdf











http://www.niwa.co.nz/news/el-niño-expected-to-produce-severe-tropical-storms-in-the-southwest-pacific

Portais úteis:

- Imagens de Satélite:

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/index.html

http://satview.bom.gov.au/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

- Instituto de Meteorologia Australiano:

http://www.bom.gov.au/?ref=logo

- Outros Institutos em inglês com radar:

http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php (Ilhas Fiji)


----------



## Orion (7 Dez 2015 às 16:19)

Tropical cyclone _Tuni _formed near Samoa on 28 November and developed into the first tropical cyclone of the 2015-16 season in the southwest Pacific region (TC _Raquel_ which formed in July 2015, is classified as forming in the 2014-15 season).  _Tuni_ brought heavy rainfall, some flooding and landslides to Apia, Samoa and the surrounding region, and then tracked toward Niue. The tropical cyclone underwent an extra-tropical transition and dissipated on 30 November before affecting any other islands.

While the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is currently weak, some international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the MJO may strengthen and move near to Australian longitudes in the next two weeks. However, tropical convection in the Australian region is not expected to be significantly enhanced, as the MJO will be of relatively small amplitude and the broader climate drivers (including El Niño) are not favourable for above-average rainfall.

While the MJO pattern is expected to remain weak, forecast models suggest an increase in tropical convection in the central and southwest Pacific (along the South Pacific Convergence Zone) within the next week or two. This increase in activity may be enhanced by other tropical waves in the area.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/


----------



## Felipe Freitas (19 Dez 2015 às 03:05)

Modelos estão mostrando já faz alguns dias a possibilidade de formação de um ciclone no Golfo de Carpentária na Antevéspera de Natal. 
O ciclone poderia impactar o estado de Queensland.


----------



## Orion (22 Dez 2015 às 12:54)

*Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria*
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 22 December 2015
for the period until midnight CST Friday 25 December 2015.

*Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:*
Nil.

*Potential Cyclones:*
At 12:30 pm CST on Tuesday 22 December a tropical low, 1005 hPa, was located over the western Carpentaria District of the Northern Territory, near Daly Waters. The low is expected to move slowly northwest and be located over the northern Top End during Wednesday and Thursday. The tropical low is then expected to move towards the southeast to be near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Friday. At this stage it is uncertain whether the low will be located over water or land, but if it is over water, there is a chance it will be developing into a tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, the monsoon is expected to remain active over the Northern Region this week with heavy rainfall and squally winds.

*Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:*
Wednesday:
Low.

Thursday:
Low.

Friday:
Moderate.

The tropical low is expected to remain near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during the weekend with an ongoing chance that the tropical low will develop into a tropical cyclone. It remains uncertain whether the tropical low will be located over water or the land.

*NOTES: *The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5%
Low: 5% to 20%
Moderate: 20 to 50%
High: Over 50%

http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml

----

A época das monções chegou (em anos de El Niño pode chegar um pouco mais tarde):






Os próximos 2/3 meses deverão trazer as melhores condições para se observar raios em Darwin:


----------



## Orion (23 Dez 2015 às 22:57)

*Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria*
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 23 December 2015 for the period until midnight CST Saturday 26 December 2015.

*Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:*
Nil.

*Potential Cyclones: *

At 1:00 pm CST on Wednesday 23 December a tropical low, 1001 hPa, was located over the southeastern Daly District of the Northern Territory, about 80 kilometres northwest of Katherine and moving north-northwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to continue moving northwards over the Daly District tonight then slowly turn to the east on Thursday. This low will enhance the monsoon over the Northern Territory and surrounding waters, bringing heavy rain and squally, strong to gale force winds. Refer to latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/.

The tropical low is expected to enter the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria during Friday and continue moving southeast over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday. The chances of this low developing into a tropical cyclone increase over the weekend.

*Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:*

Thursday: Low.

Friday: Moderate.

Saturday: High.

------------

*Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region*
Issued at 6:36 am WST on Thursday 24 December 2015 for the period until midnight WST Saturday 26 December 2015.

*Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:*
Nil.

*Potential Cyclones: *

Ratings have been updated for 04U.

Tropical low (04U) was near 10.4S 110.1E at 4am WST Thursday 24 December and has been moving east southeast at 6 knots. The system weakened overnight and is now only a small chance of developing over the next 24 hours before weakening further on Friday.

*Likelihood this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
*
Thursday: Low

Friday: Low

Saturday: Very Low

A tropical low is developing in the trough near 11S 90E, near the northwest corner of the region. There is a chance the system develops further over the next few days. With the system remaining near 90E, there is also some uncertainty as to whether or not the system will be in the Western Region. The ratings of Low for Friday and Saturday are for this system.

Elsewhere in the region, the monsoon trough is increasing thunderstorm activity north of the Kimberley and is forecast to persist throughout the remainder of the week. At this stage the trough is unlikely to produce another tropical low.

----

Fonte:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/outlooks/index.shtml


----------



## Orion (25 Dez 2015 às 15:55)

*Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm ACST:*

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 132.3 degrees East, estimated to be 40 kilometres north of Katherine and 60 kilometres east southeast of Pine Creek.

Movement: east at 12 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low over the western Top End is expected to move towards the east this morning and enter the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria during Saturday evening or early Sunday morning. It is expected to continue moving slowly east southeast near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast before turning southwards later on Sunday. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday evening if it remains over water.

--- 

Os dilúvios continuam no norte:


----------



## Orion (25 Dez 2015 às 20:36)

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Australia2


----------



## Orion (26 Dez 2015 às 20:58)

*Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am ACST:*

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South 134.0 degrees East, estimated to be 215 kilometres east southeast of Katherine and 110 kilometres southwest of Ngukurr.

Movement: east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low near the base of the Top End is moving slowly east to southeast towards the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone from Monday morning if it remains over water.


----------



## Orion (28 Dez 2015 às 02:11)

O serviço meteorológico australiano falhou brutalmente na sua previsão a curto prazo (ver acima; os australianos usam o ACCESS). A depressão acabou por ficar em terra:






Está em vigor um aviso:



> A low [998hPa] is located over the eastern Carpentaria District and is moving southeast at about 10 kilometres per hour.
> 
> Showers and thunderstorms with peak gusts around 90 km/h are forecast for parts of the Arnhem, Carpentaria and Barkly forecast districts.
> 
> ...



A depressão deverá continuar a afetar a costa norte da Austrália até 4ª feira pelo menos:


----------



## Felipe Freitas (30 Dez 2015 às 21:58)

Felipe F disse:
			
		

> Modelos estão mostrando já faz alguns dias a possibilidade de formação de um ciclone no Golfo de Carpentária na Antevéspera de Natal.
> O ciclone poderia impactar o estado de Queensland.


 A baixa prevista pelos modelos acabou se formando sobre o continente e conseguiu chegar apenas até a força de uma baixa tropical.

No Pacífico Sul 7 distúrbios tropicais se formaram em 2015, sendo que dois chegaram a força de tempestade tropical, Tuni e Una, que está ativa neste momento.

Una está prevista pelos modelos para se intensificar no dia 1º de Janeiro para categoria 3 na escala australiana, com ventos sustentados de 140 km/h.
Nuie, Fiji e Tonga podem registrar chuvas fortes devido a esse ciclone.


----------



## Orion (1 Jan 2016 às 22:43)




----------



## Orion (1 Jan 2016 às 23:31)




----------



## Orion (2 Jan 2016 às 14:23)

Há uma grande inconsistência entre o Wunderground e o instituto meteorológico de Fiji:






---











----

Pelo olho da tempestade, o Wunderground está errado. Nota ainda para o reduzido tamanho do ciclone:


----------



## Orion (2 Jan 2016 às 14:45)




----------



## Orion (2 Jan 2016 às 18:07)

Ripping off roofs of houses and destroying plant crops, what has been described as a ‘very destructive’ cyclone has hit the island nation of Tonga, just north of New Zealand.

Cyclone Ula has unleashed its fury on Tonga with flash floods, heavy rain and thunderstorms and gale-force winds reaching up to 200km/h.

Hundreds of people have been evacuated from their homes in Tonga since the arrival of Cyclone Ula but no casualties have been reported as of yet.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ofs-destroys-crops-furious-winds-200km-h.html


----------



## Orion (3 Jan 2016 às 13:37)

O ciclone Ula deverá agora dissipar-se no Pacífico após ter afetado diversas ilhas:

















Há pelo menos 3 mortos e 4 desaparecidos na sequência de um naufrágio.


----------



## Orion (3 Jan 2016 às 13:46)

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0207 UTC 03-Jan-2016

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

At 03/0000UTC (1pm Sunday New Zealand local time) Tropical cyclone ULA (968hPA, Category 3) was located near 19.8S 178.5W, about 100 kilometres northnortheast of Ono-i-Lau in Fiji Islands. Maximum sustained winds close to the centre is 80 knots (160km/hr). TC ULA is expected to continue moving southwest at 8 knots (16km/hr) and is expected to gradually weaken to a Category 2 cyclone tomorrow.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 04-Jan-2016

At 03/0000UTC (1pm Sunday New Zealand local time) Tropical cyclone ULA (968hPA, Category 3) was located near 19.8S 178.5W, about 100 kilometres northnortheast of Ono-i-Lau in Fiji Islands. Maximum sustained winds close to the centre is 80 knots (160km/hr). TC ULA is expected to continue moving southwest at 8 knots (16km/hr) and is expected to gradually weaken to a Category 2 cyclone tomorrow.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 07-Jan-2016

TC ULA is expected to take a more westerly track from Tuesday, (while located to the far south of Fiji) and is likely to be held off to the north of 25S by a building ridge of high pressure from the south.This ridge will also direct dry air into the system and this may help it to weaken to a Category 1 cyclone on Tuesday.

Some computer models show another tropical depression to form near French Polynesia on Wednesday, then deepen from Thursday while tracking towards the southeast. This system is expected to remain in a favourable environment for further development. The potential for
this to develop into a TC is low till Wednesday, and moderate thereafer.


----------



## Orion (5 Jan 2016 às 21:51)

A ULA resiste:





















-----

SEVERE Tropical Cyclone Ula no longer poses a direct threat to Fiji, says Fiji Meteorological Service director Ravind Kumar.

Mr Kumar said as the category three system moved away from the group, the country would still experience associated showers.

"TC Ula was last located 335kilometres south of Kadavu yesterday and continues to follow a west south-west track at about 7km per hour," he said.

http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=336588


----------



## Orion (6 Jan 2016 às 22:32)

Ainda a Ula:


----------



## Orion (7 Jan 2016 às 22:03)

Já começa a ser ridículo este ciclone:
















Hoje de manhã:



> Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
> ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 07*0841 UTC*.
> 
> *TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F EX-TC ULA CENTRE 998HPA* WAS LOCATED NEAR
> ...



Há pouco:



> STORM WARNING 036 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 07*1904 UTC*.
> 
> *TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2* WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7
> SOUTH 174.5 EAST AT 071800 UTC.
> ...


----------



## Orion (8 Jan 2016 às 19:13)

A Ula sobe para Cat. 3:
















HURRICANE WARNING 040 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 081859 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5 SOUTH 173.7
EAST AT 081800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.5S 173.7E at 081800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.9S 172.9E AT 090600 UTC
AND NEAR 19.4S 171.9E AT 091800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ


----------



## Orion (9 Jan 2016 às 12:41)

Mais uma atualização:








> HURRICANE WARNING 042 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 090700 UTC.
> 
> SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7 SOUTH
> 172.9 EAST AT 090600 UTC.
> ...



Dada a posição do ciclone, é agora possível acompanhá-lo na ferramenta dinâmica do instituto meteorológico australiano (equivalente à ferramenta oferecida pelo Eumetsat; tem menos opções mas mais resolução:






http://satview.bom.gov.au/


----------



## Orion (9 Jan 2016 às 12:48)

*Fears an intensifying Ula may hit Vanuatu's Tafea
*
http://www.radionz.co.nz/internatio...s-an-intensifying-ula-may-hit-vanuatu's-tafea
*
*


----------



## Orion (9 Jan 2016 às 20:54)

A Ula intensifica-se para categoria 4, desafiando novamente as previsões:
















*Ula strengthens to a category four cyclone*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/internatio...03/ula-strengthens-to-a-category-four-cyclone


----------



## Orion (10 Jan 2016 às 11:05)

A parte mais ativa do ciclone falhou por pouco Anatom e Futuna, Vanuatu:






Em termos gerais, a força do ciclone foi prolongada:


----------



## Orion (14 Jan 2016 às 17:20)

*Tropical Cyclone Ula Update 12 Jan 2016*

http://blog.metservice.com/TC-Ula-12Jan2016

*NASA sees Ula go extra-tropical*

http://phys.org/news/2016-01-nasa-ula-extra-tropical.html


----------



## Orion (16 Jan 2016 às 23:09)

Ciclone Victor:











*Category 3 cyclone bears down on Palmerston*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/internatio...7/category-3-cyclone-bears-down-on-palmerston

*Victor from Band 3 Visible*

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...0160116000000/video/20160116000000_victor.gif


----------



## Orion (19 Jan 2016 às 15:58)

*Cyclone Victor changing course*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/294428/cyclone-victor-changing-course










*
*


----------



## Orion (19 Jan 2016 às 18:12)

*Hurricane Victor - Band 3 Visible*

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...0160119000000/video/20160119000000_victor.gif


----------



## Orion (21 Jan 2016 às 21:48)

O Ciclone Victor está com péssimo aspeto. Até o raio de influência é muito assimétrico:


----------



## Orion (27 Jan 2016 às 16:34)

*Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:*

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 117.9 degrees East, estimated to be 630 kilometres northwest of Broome and 700 kilometres north of Port Hedland.

Movement: south at 9 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Friday as it tracks towards the south and approaches the Pilbara coast. It is not expected to cause GALES in coastal areas on Wednesday or Thursday but GALES may develop on Friday.

Even if the system doesn't develop into a tropical cyclone, strong to gale force winds are likely to the north of the system centre.


----------



## Orion (28 Jan 2016 às 15:32)

A depressão tropical está no noroeste da Austrália:






---

*Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:*
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South 117.7 degrees East, estimated to be 415 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 455 kilometres north of Karratha.

Movement: south at 12 kilometres per hour.

The low is gradually strengthening and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone during Friday as it tracks southwards towards the Pilbara coast. It is forecast to reach category 2 intensity when it makes landfall on Saturday morning between Pardoo and Karratha, including near Port Hedland.

*Hazards:*
GALES may develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Dampier, including Port Hedland and Karratha, during Friday evening or overnight into Saturday morning. If the system tracks further to the east then GALES may develop as far east as Bidyadanga. If the system tracks further west then GALES may extend as far west as Mardie during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may occur near the centre on Saturday morning and afternoon including in the Port Hedland area.

Tides between Pardoo and Karratha are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and possible flooding of low-lying coastal areas east of the crossing point.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is likely to develop over the Pilbara and far western Kimberley from Friday and extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and a Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment.

---

O ciclone não deverá atingir áreas com grandes défices hídricos quer de curto prazo...






... quer de longo prazo:


----------



## Orion (29 Jan 2016 às 15:53)

*Details of Tropical Cyclone Stan at 11:00 pm AWST:*
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South 118.1 degrees East, estimated to be 220 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 290 kilometres north northeast of Karratha.

Movement: south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Stan lies to the north of Port Hedland and continues to track slowly south southeast towards the Pilbara coast. It is expected to reach category 3 intensity (severe tropical cyclone) prior to landfall Saturday afternoon or evening between Wallal and Whim Creek.

*Hazards:*
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Whim Creek, which includes Port Hedland, early Saturday morning. There is the chance that GALES could develop as far east as Bidyadanga and as far west as Mardie during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are likely to develop near the track in coastal parts from around midday Saturday, including Port Hedland and surrounding areas, extending further inland later on Saturday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 170 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre as it makes landfall later on Saturday.

Residents between Wallal and Whim Creek, including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is occurring in parts of the Pilbara and far western Kimberley and will extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and Gascoyne Districts. A Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment, Pilbara Coastal Rivers and Fortescue River Catchment.


----------



## Orion (29 Jan 2016 às 17:44)

O Stan pode atingir a costa australiana enquanto ciclone severo. Enquanto isso, ainda não aparece no radar:






Mas os efeitos já são sentidos em Rowley Shoals:


----------



## Orion (29 Jan 2016 às 23:39)

Não há ainda muita definição no radar. Na imagem também estão representadas as estações meteorológicas. Port Hedland, Bedout Island e Mandora são as mais próximas do local onde o ciclone fará o _landfall_. Bedout Island está no mar próximo da costa:


----------



## Orion (30 Jan 2016 às 00:06)

---

Ainda não choveu muito este ano na área do _landfall_:


----------



## Orion (30 Jan 2016 às 13:34)

Faltam menos de 8 horas para o Stan chegar a terra:






Apesar de se prever uma intensificação, não tem bom aspeto:


----------



## Orion (30 Jan 2016 às 19:22)

O Stan acabou por não chegar à categoria 3:






Não parece haver muita força. A estação de Mandora, a este de Wallal e supostamente na zona do _landfall_, mostrava há pouco uma pressão de 994 hPa. Ainda não houve rajadas acima dos 75 km/h. Mas também parece estar um pouco longe do centro muito desorganizado.


----------



## Orion (30 Jan 2016 às 20:16)

Atualizando os acumulados... nota para Paraburdoo


----------



## Orion (30 Jan 2016 às 23:08)

Seguimento do ciclone e respetivo impacto:

https://twitter.com/BOM_WA

https://twitter.com/abcnewsPerth

https://twitter.com/9NewsPerth


----------



## Orion (31 Jan 2016 às 15:08)




----------



## Orion (2 Fev 2016 às 01:03)

O Stan acabou por não ser nada de especial:



> Tropical Cyclone Stan passed directly over Yarrie Station in Western Australia's Pilbara, but station owner Annabelle Coppin says it was nothing to write home about.
> 
> Communities dotted throughout the isolated Pilbara region braced themselves as the first major storm of the season made landfall on Sunday morning, but were left underwhelmed by the category two cyclone.
> 
> "It was a fizzer, the eye went over us - it went right over the top of us - when the eye goes over you, you think you're going to get more rain but we've only had 18mm so far," Ms Coppin told AAP.



http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...a/news-story/67a1d56e2d0a9e4220fc9ad71adb11ce



> Our WA community felt the impacts of Australia's first tropical cyclone for the 2015/16 season over the weekend. Here's some fast facts about tropical cyclone Stan:
> 
> - Crossed the coast near Pardoo on WA's Pilbara coast at 2am Sunday 31 January 2016, as a Category 2 intensity cyclone with estimated wind gusts of 150km/h
> - Strongest wind gust recorded was 133km/h offshore at Rowley Shoals.



https://www.facebook.com/bureauofmeteorology

Também é verdade que aquela zona tem uma densidade populacional muito baixa.

Na Austrália os nomes são seguidos, não havendo um reinício aquando de uma nova temporada.






Como tal, o próximo ciclone ropical será a Tatiana. Como curiosidade, lá eles aceitam sugestões do público:



> *Requests by the public for tropical cyclone names*
> 
> *Important Note: All cyclone names are submitted to the World Meteorological Organization Regional Tropical Cyclone Committee for the SE Pacific for final approval. *This committee can (and often does) reject or adjust names that are submitted to it and may substitute their own name. The reason for this decision may be:
> 
> ...


----------



## Orion (11 Fev 2016 às 14:53)

*Tropical Cyclone WINSTON*











---

*Tropical Cyclone Tatiana*











Ambos os ciclones também estão ser seguidos pela Meteofrance devido à sua proximidade à Nova Caledónia:

http://www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/cyclone/phenomenes-en-cours


----------



## Orion (11 Fev 2016 às 15:59)

* A pair of tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific*

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_of_the_day.asp


----------



## Orion (12 Fev 2016 às 14:55)

Tatiana:






Winston:






A ilha de Matthews é desabitada. O arquipélago das Fiji poderá ser atingido mais para a frente


----------



## Orion (13 Fev 2016 às 14:49)

Tatiana:







Winston:


----------



## Orion (14 Fev 2016 às 14:30)

Tropical Cyclone Tatiana, in the Coral Sea, was reclassifed as a tropical low at 13/1800UTC (7am Sunday New Zealand local time).

---

Winston:


----------



## Orion (16 Fev 2016 às 15:46)

Situação extremamente perigosa relativamente ao ciclone Winston:








> The cyclone is packing winds as high as 130 kilometres an hour at its centre, and the director of the National Emergency Management Office, Leveni 'Aho, said it had already caused some minor damage and flooding in low-lying areas of Tongatapu and Ha'apai.





> Fiji Metservices tropical cylone forecaster Misaeli Funaki said he had also heard reports of damage.
> 
> "Observations are coming in and we have had some phone calls from the islands in the south that trees were uprooted and damages to plantations and even a few houses went down. This was mainly from Ono-i-lau the island which was closest to the centre of tropical cyclone Winston."



http://www.radionz.co.nz/internatio...lerts-as-cyclone-winston-nears-tonga's-vava'u

Mas a previsão tem mudado radicalmente. Anteriormente estava assim:


----------



## Orion (16 Fev 2016 às 21:58)

O Winston não é muito grande. Está para breve a curva de 180º:


----------



## Orion (17 Fev 2016 às 15:18)

*Warmer waters contributing to Winston's unpredictably
*
http://www.radionz.co.nz/internatio...aters-contributing-to-winston's-unpredictably


----------



## Orion (18 Fev 2016 às 16:18)




----------



## Orion (18 Fev 2016 às 20:02)




----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 16:16)

Nas próximas horas a ilha principal das Ilhas Fiji, Viti Levu, deverá ser atingida diretamente:











Parte do ciclone já aparece no radar:






EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 120 KNOTS
BY 191800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,

AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

---

*Cyclone Winston now a category 5, heading straight for Fiji
*
http://www.radionz.co.nz/internatio...n-now-a-category-5,-heading-straight-for-fiji

*Despite some damage, Tonga escapes the worst of Winston
*
http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=342283
*
*


----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 16:20)

FOR VANUABALAVU, YACATA, MAGO, CICIA, TUVUCA, NAYAU, KORO, GAU, VANUAVATU, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA, OVALAU, WAKAYA AND SOUTHERN VANUA LEVU:

EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 205KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 285KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

https://www.facebook.com/FijiMetService/


----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 16:35)

*3. Fiji's capital doesn't see tropical cyclones all that often*
Although records don't date too far back for Fiji's tropical weather, meteorologists know it's fairly rare for a tropical cyclone to hit the country's capital city.

"According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks database, only 12 tropical cyclones of at least Category 1 equivalent intensity have tracked within 100 miles of Fiji's capital and largest city, Suva, since 1972," said Erdman. "The last one to do so was Evan, just over a week before Christmas 2012."

---

*5. Officials fear the storm could spread disease in Tonga*
Aid agencies are very worried Winston will further spread the Zika virus in the wake of the storm. According to a Reuters report, officials are concerned that the lack of mosquito control during the recovery period will allow the mosquito population to explode, putting citizens at a higher risk of contracting the virus.

As a result, aid groups have spent extra resources spraying areas that may be impacted by a mosquito population boom, removing larvae from water tanks and distributing nets – especially to pregnant women – the report also said.

An outbreak was declared in Tonga earlier in the month after five cases of Zika were confirmed and another 259 were suspected, Reuters added.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/cyclone-winston-impacts-preps


----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 16:45)

O modelo australiano não parece ser grande coisa. A previsão para logo é de uma depressão de 995 hPa. Nada condizente com um ciclone cat. 4/5:






Mesmo imediatamente após a saída do modelo, a previsão era desconcertante:






Curiosamente, o serviço meteorológico da Nova Zelândia faz referência à NOAA que, para a previsão dos possíveis caminhos do Winston, usa o... ECMWF.


----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 18:23)

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [920HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2 SOUTH 178.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120KM NORTH OF LAKEBA OR ABOUT 320KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 5AM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 25KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 220KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 315KM/HR.


----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 21:54)

Uma das ilhotas do arquipélago está no olho do ciclone. Uma calma que daqui a pouco acabará:






Estações meteorológicas em Fiji:

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=fiji

Com especial destaque:











O seu movimento muito lento irá certamente aumentar a destruição:


----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 22:05)




----------



## Orion (19 Fev 2016 às 23:47)

*Catastrophic Cyclone Winston bears down on Fiji’s main island in worst case scenario*

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-on-fijis-main-island-in-worst-case-scenario/




Mais aqui:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/winston

---


----------



## Orion (20 Fev 2016 às 00:09)




----------



## Orion (20 Fev 2016 às 16:21)

Pelo menos 1 morto aquando da passagem do Winston. Fotos e reportagens diversas aqui:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/winston?src=rela

Nota ainda para isto:



> With the weather office stating that Hurricane Winston carries a maximum wind speed of 325 km per hour, the Fiji Times team during one of their rounds saw members of the public running around the streets enjoying the heavy downpour.



http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=342511

Nas próximas horas o Winston afastar-se-á do arquipélago das Fiji... pelo menos por agora.


----------



## Felipe Freitas (20 Fev 2016 às 20:54)




----------



## Felipe Freitas (20 Fev 2016 às 20:57)

Olho do ciclone Winston sobre a ilha de Koro, Fiji.


----------



## Orion (20 Fev 2016 às 21:11)

O ECM modela o ex-Winston a atingir a ilha norte da NZ daqui a alguns dias:


----------



## Orion (20 Fev 2016 às 21:16)

O Winston ainda afeta as ilhas Fiji:


----------



## Orion (20 Fev 2016 às 21:24)




----------



## lserpa (20 Fev 2016 às 23:06)

Living Earth


----------



## Orion (21 Fev 2016 às 17:21)

*Waves sounded like a "747 jet"*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/297046/waves-sounded-like-a-747-jet

*Fiji devastation revealed from air*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/297092/fiji-devastation-revealed-from-air

*Death toll climbs in cyclone ravaged Fiji*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/297059/death-toll-climbs-in-cyclone-ravaged-fiji*

*


----------



## Orion (22 Fev 2016 às 19:29)

*Winston death toll rises to 29*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/297194/winston-death-toll-rises-to-29






*The life of Tropical Cyclone Winston - Band 13 IR*

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...160222000000/video/20160222000000_winston.gif


----------



## Orion (22 Fev 2016 às 19:38)




----------



## Orion (23 Fev 2016 às 19:05)

Tendo em conta a posição do Winston, vários centros estão a fazer o acompanhamento (com diferentes prioridades): Austrália, Nova Zelândia, Fiji, Nova Caledónia e Vanuatu.

A ilha de Norfolk, com uma população por volta de 2200, está de sobreaviso:






*Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston at 11:00 pm NFT:*
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.9 degrees South 174.1 degrees East, estimated to be 1100 kilometres northeast of Norfolk Island.

Movement: south southeast at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Winston is expected to continue moving south for another 24 hours or so, and should then turn to the west southwest on Wednesday night.

The cyclone is expected to pass to the north of Norfolk Island late Thursday or early Friday, however there is some uncertainty associated with this forecast track.

*Hazards:*
Damaging winds with gusts over 90 km/h may develop about Norfolk Island later on Thursday, and continue through Thursday night and early Friday. These winds may be stronger with wind gusts in excess of 120 km/h if the cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tides are expected to be higher than normal on Thursday night and Friday, and large waves will develop about exposed beaches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to develop on Thursday night and continue into early Friday.


----------



## Orion (23 Fev 2016 às 21:52)




----------



## Orion (24 Fev 2016 às 00:34)

*Fiji death toll from Winston rises to 36*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/297310/fiji-death-toll-from-winston-rises-to-36



> The death toll is expected to increase as remote areas of the country believed to have been hard hit by the category 5 storm have yet to be contacted.
> 
> At least two people are confirmed missing.


----------



## Orion (24 Fev 2016 às 15:51)

*Details of Tropical Cyclone Winston at 11:00 pm NFT:*

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 24.6 degrees South 173.8 degrees East, estimated to be 760 kilometres northeast of Norfolk Island.

Movement: south southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Winston has been moving in a generally southerly direction today, and should turn to the west southwest overnight tonight.

The cyclone is expected to pass to the north of Norfolk Island late Thursday or early Friday. The tropical cyclone will possibly undertake extra-tropical transition during Thursday. However, it is expected to retain an intense wind structure, particularly on its southern side, and could still have similar impacts to a Category 1 tropical cyclone over Norfolk Island.

*Hazards:*
Damaging winds with gusts over 90 km/h may develop about Norfolk Island during the day on Thursday and continue into the early hours of Friday. These winds may be stronger with wind gusts in excess of 120 km/h if the cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tides are expected to be higher than normal on Thursday night and Friday, and large waves will develop about exposed beaches.

Heavy rainfall and squally showers will possibly develop on Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning.

---

*Fiji death toll from Winston rises to 42
*
http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/297310/fiji-death-toll-from-winston-rises-to-42


----------



## Orion (24 Fev 2016 às 19:27)




----------



## Orion (25 Fev 2016 às 00:07)

Algumas ilhas da Polinésia Francesa já têm aviso para mau tempo:


----------



## Orion (25 Fev 2016 às 00:19)




----------



## Orion (25 Fev 2016 às 17:04)

O Winston já não existe. Foram lançados avisos para a ondulação em Queensland e na ilha de Norfolk.



> Tropical Cylone Winston was re-classified as a tropical low at 25/0000UTC (1pm today local time, Thursday) and lies southeast of New Caledonia.





> EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON TO IMPACT NORFOLK ISLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
> 
> Weather Situation
> At 11pm NFT, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Winston was located within 90 kilometres of 27
> ...



---

Ciclone Yalo:











À direita (imagem com cor natural; clicar na imagem para melhor definição):


----------



## Orion (25 Fev 2016 às 21:52)

ex-Winston:






*Cyclone Winston continues - True Color*

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_of_the_day.asp

--- 

Yalo:


----------



## Orion (26 Fev 2016 às 16:20)

Ex-Ciclone Tropical Yalo:


----------



## Orion (26 Fev 2016 às 17:27)

*Record-breaking Tropical Cyclone Winston devastated parts of Fiji when it hit the archipelago in February.
*
http://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Images/ImageLibrary/DAT_2959288.html


----------



## Orion (15 Mar 2016 às 16:07)




----------



## Orion (15 Mar 2016 às 20:00)




----------



## Orion (15 Mar 2016 às 21:49)




----------



## Orion (16 Mar 2016 às 20:04)

A tempestade não chegou a categoria 1. Nota para o reduzido tamanho:


----------



## Orion (4 Abr 2016 às 23:07)




----------



## Orion (5 Abr 2016 às 15:33)

Mantém-se o aviso relativo à formação de um ciclone tropical a sudoeste das Fiji. 

Aviso máximo no referido arquipélago. Formou-se o ciclone tropical Zena:






O arquipélago das ilhas Vanuatu está a ser afetado:






As cheias nas Fiji já causaram 1 morto (1 homem de 70 anos). Uma rapariga de 19 anos está desaparecida.


As chuvas devem continuar antes da chegada do ciclone.


----------



## Orion (5 Abr 2016 às 21:20)

Foi cancelado o aviso para o surgimento de um TC a sudoeste de Fiji. O serviço meteorológico deste arquipélago ainda não atualizou as previsões. O IM de Vanuatu dá um cenário perigoso em que o ciclone fica quase estacionário:






Já Fiji considera que o ciclone já é Cat. 2:



> STORM WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 051916 UTC.
> 
> TROPICAL CYCLONE ZENA CENTRE 988HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5
> SOUTH 170.6 EAST AT 051800 UTC.
> ...



Vanuatu já sofreu o pior:






Já Fiji não sabe quando é que vai acabar:













> Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY FIVE FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 4.00AM on WEDNESDAY the 06TH of April 2016.
> 
> ...
> 
> ...


----------



## Orion (5 Abr 2016 às 22:12)

Atualização de Fiji:






O caminho previsto deve ser tido com uma pitada de sal. Alterações drásticas não seriam novidade. Os anteriores ciclones também tiveram rotas estranhas.

Ula:






Winston:






Devido aos eventuais impactos do ciclone na ilha de Wallis-et-Fortuna, a MeteoFrance, divisão da Nova Caledónia, emitiu um aviso:



> Situation actuelle : A 5 heures locales ce mercredi 6 avril 2016, la dépression tropicale forte "ZENA" se situait par 16.7° Sud et 170.4° Est, soit à environ 250 km dans l'est nord-est de Port-Vila (Vanuatu). Sa pression au centre est estimée à 988 hPa. "ZENA" se déplace rapidement vers l'est sud-est à environ 45 km/h. Elle génère des vents moyens proches de 95 km/h près de son centre, avec des rafales de l'ordre de 130 km/h.



O ciclone Zena não é muito grande e mistura-se com a restante faixa tropical:


----------



## Orion (6 Abr 2016 às 03:50)

O cenário ficou mais severo:












A chuva acalmou um pouco...






... mas não fará muita diferença porque já há inundações severas e o ciclone está a pouca distância.

Os acumulados prévios são brutais (entre as 12h de 3ª e as 9h de 4ª; hora local):



> NADARIVATU: 255.5mm
> LAUTOKA: 210.0mm
> MONASAVU: 139.0mm
> RARAWAI: 190.5mm
> NACOCOLEVU: 136.5mm



Aviso:



> TROPICAL CYCLONE ZENA CENTRE 983 HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 172 DECIMAL 4 EAST OR ABOUT 535 KM WEST OF NADI AT MIDDAY TODAY. POSITION FAIR. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 120KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 170KM/HR.



O JTWC, às 21 UTC enquanto o ciclone estava em categoria 2, apontava para ondas máximas de 18 pés ou 5.5 metros.

A temporada acaba no final deste mês. Será certamente inesquecível para os habitantes das ilhas Fiji.


----------



## Orion (6 Abr 2016 às 15:14)

O ciclone passou pela ilha principal das ilhas Fiji, Viti Levu hoje de manhã. Não obstante a intensidade elevada, não parecia ter um olho bem definido. O seu reduzido tamanho deve ter diminuído os eventuais impactos:


----------



## Orion (6 Abr 2016 às 15:26)

As predicted yesterday, *the tropical low in the north of the country became a named cyclone, Zena, overnight* near Ambae. It ‘wobbled’ further south than anticipated by Vanuatu Meteorological Services, passing directly over northern Santo and south Pentecost as a category 1 cyclone. Damage to weak structures, flooding and downed trees have been reported in Santo, Ambae, Maewo and Pentecost. Seas remain rough. Cyclone Zena will move out of Vanuatu’s zone of meteorological responsibility this evening and into Fiji’s.

https://vanuatudaily.wordpress.com/...-wants-stronger-relations-with-new-caledonia/

---


----------



## Orion (6 Abr 2016 às 21:02)

O ciclone não tem uma forma consistente:






A ilha de Tonga está a ser neste momento afetada:


----------



## Orion (7 Abr 2016 às 15:38)

O corpo da mulher de 19 anos anteriormente desaparecida nas enchentes foi encontrada. Há estradas fechadas mas o público já se pode mover livremente. Os voos vão voltar à normalidade. Não parece haver fatalidades decorrentes do ciclone. Mesmo em Fiji o ciclone teve um menor impacto do que o esperado.


----------



## Orion (16 Abr 2016 às 21:07)

Fiji está a ser afetada por mais uma depressão tropical. Aviso:

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/TD17F_2.pdf


----------



## Orion (20 Abr 2016 às 16:27)

Ciclone tropical Amos:


----------



## Orion (21 Abr 2016 às 16:58)




----------



## Orion (22 Abr 2016 às 16:21)

> Le 23/04/2016 à 00h00 locales, le cyclone tropical AMOS se trouvait par 12.4°Sud et 176.3°Ouest, soit à environ 90 km dans le nord de Wallis et 290 km dans le nord-est de Futuna. Sa pression au centre est estimée à 965 hPa et il génère près de son centre des vents moyens proches de 140 km/h, avec des rafales à 200 km/h. A Wallis, qui est relativement éloignée du centre, le vent reste beaucoup plus modéré avec des rafales observées de 60 à 80 km/h.



http://www.meteo.nc/wallis-et-futuna/cyclone/phenomenes-en-cours


----------



## Orion (22 Abr 2016 às 23:04)

Na única estação oficial da ilha de Wallis (sudoeste do ciclone) não tem feito muito vento:

http://www.meteo.nc/wallis-et-futuna/observations/dernieres-24h?ville=Hihifo

A Samoa Americana será atingida nas próximas horas.

---

Estações oficiais na SA:

http://www.weather.gov/ppg/observations


----------



## Orion (23 Abr 2016 às 15:00)

O ciclone Amos está a afetar a Samoa enquanto categoria 3. Não há olho óbvio:






O centro de Fiji indica que os ventos estão a norte, primariamente no mar:






Pago Pago, capital da Samoa Americana, já está a ser afetada.


----------



## Orion (23 Abr 2016 às 19:54)

Fotos da passagem do Amos pela Samoa:

https://twitter.com/DMO_Samoa

https://www.facebook.com/DMOSamoa/



----


----------



## Orion (23 Abr 2016 às 22:02)

*Amos not as severe says Samoa meteorology service*

http://www.radionz.co.nz/internatio...-not-as-severe-says-samoa-meteorology-service






Tal como a Samoa, parece que também a Samoa Americana foi poupada ao pior.


----------



## Orion (24 Abr 2016 às 15:07)




----------



## Orion (26 Abr 2016 às 19:25)

*3 cyclones mark slowest tropical season on record for Australia*

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/3-cyclones-mark-slowest-tropic/56967800

A temporada irá terminar a 30 de Abril.


----------

