HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016
The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier
today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the
cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby
high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and
some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's
circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once
Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the
hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some
weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the
wind shear.
Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from
Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees
at about 8 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow
around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global
models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the
hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the
waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.