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Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
Kirk remains a large, powerful hurricane with an impressive
satellite presentation. The hurricane has a clear, circular 20 n mi-
wide eye that is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The latest subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are
T6.0/115 kt, while the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates are
around 125-130 kt. A blend of these values supports holding the
initial intensity at 125 kt. The wind radii of Kirk were made
slightly larger based on an earlier ASCAT overpass.
A subtropical high to the northeast of Kirk is steering the
hurricane northwestward (310/9 kt), but a northward turn is expected
on Saturday while the hurricane moves between the western extent of
the subtropical ridge and a shortwave trough approaching from the
west. Then, Kirk is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the
mid-latitudes on Sunday through early next week, ahead of a
deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic. The track
guidance agrees on this recurvature scenario, and the NHC prediction
is very similar to the previous one with only slight left-of-track
adjustments to follow the multi-model consensus trends.
Satellite intensity estimates peaked overnight, and there is
evidence of some restriction of Kirk's upper-level outflow to the
west of the hurricane in recent satellite images. The shear is
expected to increase over Kirk during the next few days, along with
the potential for intrusions of dry air that could disrupt the
hurricane's convective organization. So while small short-term
intensity fluctuations are possible, the overall forecast trend is
for gradual weakening through Saturday, with more steady weakening
into early next week. As Kirk moves over cooler waters and into a
more baroclinic environment, it is expected to lose tropical
characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone by
96 h over the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast
closely follows the latest HCCA aid.
Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 22.3N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.6N 49.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 28.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 35.8N 46.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 39.8N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 29.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 47.0N 14.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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