Furacão Vince (Atlântico 2005)

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Esta foi a trajectória final seguida pelo Vince antes de se esfumar completamente:



Não admira que tivessem tido tanta precipitação pelo sul de Espanha...
 
Já tentei, mas surge à mesma na página! :o
Já agora Fil, não dá para actualizares a hora, pq parece o meteored :w00t:
 
por exemplo, são neste momento 12.32 mas, a hora que vai aparecer no post é de 14.32 :wacko: :wacko: :w00t:
 
Última edição:
Re: Furacão Vince

Só para acrescentar a este tópico antigo sobre o furacão Vince uma imagem interessante que descobri num forum espanhol, onde se ainda veem os restos dos "braços" em espiral sobre o Portugal e as nuvens convectivas que ainda largaram muita água no sul de Espanha.


Alta resolução:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?Europe_3_01/2005284

E os excelentes artigos na RAM sobre o Vince:

http://www.meteored.com/ram/numero35/ciclon-vince.asp (Parte I)
http://www.meteored.com/ram/numero36/ciclon-vince.asp (Parte II)
http://www.meteored.com/ram/numero37/ciclon-vince.asp (Parte III)


E o estudo do INM:

“Consideraciones sobre el ciclón “Vince”: sus efectos sobre la península Ibérica”
http://www.inm.es/web/sup/ciencia/divulga/pdf/estudio_vince.pdf
 
Re: Furacão Vince

Encontrei neste site informação actualizada sobre o nosso furacão amigo Vince www.tiemposevero.es eu quero um furacão este ano no Algarve :D:D
 
Efeméride do «nosso» Furacão :D
Faz hoje dois anos que o NHC finalmente decidiu (a custo) dar nome ao ciclone tropical que se tinha formado na véspera nas nossas águas, tendo sido baptizado com o nome de "Vince". Se já foi dificil aceitar que se tinha formado uma Tempestade Tropical naquelas condições, mais tramado foi terem que aceitar que se tinha intensificado para furacão. Para recordar o evento, deixo aqui as 2 primeiras e a última discussion, algumas delas com algum humor e boa disposição bastante rara neste tipo de análises, com uma frase na 2ª que ficou famosa no NHC: «IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS...»

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE. SINCE SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR
SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL
STORM YESTERDAY. VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.0N 19.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 34.7N 18.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 36.3N 16.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 39.1N 13.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
Clique para expandir...


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS
VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND
995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING
THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT
20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP
CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN
IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE
FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN
EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS
STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE
23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.

VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT
045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE
NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO
COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 34.2N 18.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.4N 17.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 37.6N 14.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 40.5N 11.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
Clique para expandir...



ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

VINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT...
WITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT
00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE
SECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS...
BUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
QUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED. VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY. WITH NO DATA T
NUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY
LONGER IS UNWARRANTED. AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW
OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF VINCE
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR
ABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO
PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Clique para expandir...
 
Faz hoje dois anos olhando eu uma imagem de Satelite ao momento na TV Digital (Meteoexpress) no Hotbird, quando vi aquela imagem maravilhosa e todo euforico digo á minha mulher "não é possivel um Furacão", e a euforia continuou, passado duas hora na Tv aparece "Noticia de Ultima Hora Furacão Vice forma-se no Atlantico e poderá atingir Portugal", depois foi o que todos sabemos.

Um momento inesquecivel
 
Existe pelo menos um trabalho publicado sobre efeitos da passagem do Vince, estando publicado em português e escrito por portugueses para as Jornadas do Mar da Escola Naval.
 
E há 3 anos, os amantes de situações meteorológicas extremas em Portugal e um pouco por todo o Planeta, nem queriam acreditar no que os seus olhos viam:

200510091545msg1msg1hrvpx7.jpg
[/URL] [/IMG]

Um Furacão às portas da Madeira!!!!!!!!
Faz hoje 3 anos o nosso grande Vince.
O desenlace é sabido por todos.
A História faz-se com todos os detalhes.
Neste dia,há 3 anos fez-se História.

Decerto me perdoará oh Vince, se me antecipei.
Não resisti.
É que sempre que contemplo as imagens de satélite daqueles dias,
invade-me emoção, jorro comoção.
É a minha 1ª efeméride !!! Há um ano atrás ,eu ainda não participava neste forum.
Viva o Vince...
 
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