Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2017)

[Orion]

Há quem diga que os danos, diretos e indiretos, em PR vão chegar aos 30 MM. Ainda não li valores dos danos nas ilhotas mas devem ser muito superiores ao PIB.

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Lee, aviso 27:

The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

Retiraram a possibilidade de o Lee se tornar num C2 forte. Por agora pensam que continuará como C1 muito forte/C2 fraco.

 

[luismeteo3]

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK.

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[rokleon]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...

(...)

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Maria is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday
night.

 

[lserpa]

A última saída operacional, quer do GFS, quer do ECM, faz com que ambos os modelos estejam mais ou menos em consenso relativamente à futura trajetória das duas tempestades.
As quais deverão passar a NW dos Açores a uma distância segura e já em transição.


Enviado do meu iPhone usando Tapatalk

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

Russ Adams‏@patpend 11 minHá 11 minutos
Russ Adams retweetou AutismMommie

Mandatory evacuation of Ocracoke NC in Outer Banks.

 

[Orion]

“There will be no food in Puerto Rico,” Mr. Rivera predicted. “There is no more agriculture in Puerto Rico. And there won’t be any for a year or longer.”

In a matter of hours, Hurricane Maria wiped out about 80 percent of the crop value in Puerto Rico — making it one of the costliest storms to hit the island’s agriculture industry, said Carlos Flores Ortega, Puerto Rico’s secretary of the Department of Agriculture.

The island suffered a loss of $780 million in agriculture yields, according to the department’s preliminary figures. Hurricane Georges in 1998 wiped out about 65 percent of crops and Hurricane Irma, which only grazed the island, took out about $45 million in agriculture production.

Puerto Rico’s Agriculture and Farmers Decimated by Maria

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[Orion]

Lee, aviso 31:

Little Lee has weakened a little since the previous advisory. Over the past few hours, the previously clear 10-15 nmi diameter eye has become cloud filled, briefly becoming completely obscured. An average of the available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT, UW-CIMSS SATCON, and NHC AODT is 75 kt, and that is initial intensity used for this advisory.

The modest southeasterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting Lee today is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global models to abate shortly, and remain at less than 10 kt for the next 48 hours or so. As a result, some slight strengthening will be possible when the cyclone moves over warmer 28 deg C SSTs in 36-48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 30.5N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 30.4N 51.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 30.5N 53.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 31.0N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 31.8N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

Quanto muito o Lee pode voltar a C2 fraco tendo por base a última previsão.

Não obstante o sossego previsto nos próximos dias, a temporada ainda não acabou. Outubro pode trazer um máximo secundário.

Excetuando alguma surpresa anómala, Setembro deve acabar com 13 tempestades nomeadas, 4 furacões e 4 furacões Major.

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]