Azorean Storm Buster
Cumulus
Também tive essa sensação ao fazer animação de satélite esta tarde...
Seguimento Açores e Madeira - Janeiro 2016
- Thread starter Thomar
- Data de início
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Wessel1985
Cumulonimbus
Ponta Delgada , 14 de Janeiro de 2016
Governo dos Açores decide encerrar todos os serviços da administração regional nos grupos Central e Oriental
Face ao agravamento previsível do estado do tempo nas ilhas dos grupos Central e Oriental do arquipélago dos Açores para sexta-feira, 15 de janeiro, o Governo Regional, por despacho do Presidente, decidiu o encerramento de todos os serviços e organismos localizados naquelas ilhas.
Ficam excecionados, segundo o mesmo despacho, os serviços considerados urgentes e essenciais, nomeadamente hospitais, centros de saúde, serviços de proteção civil, assim como os demais considerados pelos respetivos diretores regionais da tutela.
Governo dos Açores decide encerrar todos os serviços da administração regional nos grupos Central e Oriental
Face ao agravamento previsível do estado do tempo nas ilhas dos grupos Central e Oriental do arquipélago dos Açores para sexta-feira, 15 de janeiro, o Governo Regional, por despacho do Presidente, decidiu o encerramento de todos os serviços e organismos localizados naquelas ilhas.
Ficam excecionados, segundo o mesmo despacho, os serviços considerados urgentes e essenciais, nomeadamente hospitais, centros de saúde, serviços de proteção civil, assim como os demais considerados pelos respetivos diretores regionais da tutela.
Snifa
Furacão
( aumentei um pouco o contraste da imagem no photoshop para se ver melhor )
Última edição:
Alguns navios, incluindo um grande navio guindaste, estão a posicionar-se na costa oeste da ilha de São Miguel. Mas não deverá ser muito fácil abrigar-se de uma componente forte de leste/sueste. Imagino que sejam condições atípicas nos Açores, pelo que alguns portos poderão ter problemas temporariamente.
Imagino ondulação de leste/sueste de 10 metros no porto do Funchal (que conheço bem ao contrário dos portos açorianos) e imagino como algo terrível...
Imagino ondulação de leste/sueste de 10 metros no porto do Funchal (que conheço bem ao contrário dos portos açorianos) e imagino como algo terrível...
Para quem tiver curiosidade, num artigo em inglês, em que se explica como se forma uma furacão.
Interessante...
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/anatomy-of-a-hurricane
Já deu para explicar alguma coisa a minha pestinha de 8 anos! Obrigada! Agora vamos esperar que dentro do possível corra tudo bem! Boa sorte Açores
Wessel1985
Cumulonimbus
Boa Noite
Por aqui com o cair da noite veio a chuva embora ainda fraca mas puxada a vento ... Nada de muito significativo mas talvez um primeiro sinal que o Alex vem se aproximando ...
Por aqui com o cair da noite veio a chuva embora ainda fraca mas puxada a vento ... Nada de muito significativo mas talvez um primeiro sinal que o Alex vem se aproximando ...
Jodamensil
Cumulus
StormRic
Furacão
Não me parece a mim. Pode ser uma ilusão criada pelo fluxo de nuvens altas a norte do furacão e que se dirige para ENE, incutindo assim uma ideia de componente oeste no movimento de Alex, que de momento não existe.
Azorean Storm Buster
Cumulus
Postei 2 vídeos do estado do mar (ainda relativamente calmo, mas com algumas vagas) ao fim da tarde em Lagoa, São Miguel.
http://azoreanstormbuster.blogspot.pt/
http://azoreanstormbuster.blogspot.pt/
Primeiros sinais de aparente enfraquecimento, alguma erosão na parede sul do olho. Mas é preciso esperar algum tempo a ver se é temporário ou início duma tendência.
17:30 vs 19:30 utc
17:30 vs 19:30 utc
Continua a tendência. A chuva mais gravosa tende a evitar as ilhas. O vento mais severo afeta o G. Oriental:
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Última edição:
Azorean Storm Buster
Cumulus
Ia comentar isso mesmo agora. Sei que pode ser uma loucura do GFS e WRF, porque não são modelos feitos para este tipo de eventos. No entanto, tanto um como outro apontam para uma dispersão da precipitação em relação ao núcleo. Isto apesar de o GFS prever um aumento dos movimentos verticais em torno do núcleo à medida que se aproxima do grupo central. Será o furacão a adquirir características subtropicais novamente?Primeiros sinais de aparente enfraquecimento, alguma erosão na parede sul do olho. Mas é preciso esperar algum tempo a ver se é temporário ou início duma tendência.
17:30 vs 19:30 utc
Aviso das 21h
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY
EARLY FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 27.8W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central
Azores
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 27.8 West. Alex is moving
toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is expected by Friday
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions
of the Azores Friday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day
or so, and Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on
Friday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over
portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
to spread over the central Azores by early Friday.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of
Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016
Alex has been maintaining a fairly impressive appearance on
satellite imagery, with a well-defined 15-20 n mi diameter eye
embedded within cold cloud tops. Recent images do suggest some
warming/erosion of the tops over the southwest quadrant. Dvorak
T-numbers remain near 4.5 so the current intensity is held at 75
kt. Sea surface temperatures are now below 20 deg C and should
continue to cool along the path of Alex. This, along with a little
increase in southwesterly shear, should result in gradual
weakening. However, Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength
while passing near or over the Azores. In 24 hours or so, the
global models show a distinct warm front over the northeast portion
of the circulation. This suggests extratropical transition, and the
official forecast reflects this. Later in the forecast period, the
global models show the system merging with another extratropical
cyclone over the northern Atlantic.
The initial motion is slightly east of due northward or 015/19.
There is essentially no change to the track forecast reasoning.
Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave
mid-tropospheric trough that has been rotating around a broader
trough to its northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone
to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over
the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models are
in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and
the official forecast is near the consensus of these models. This
is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction.
Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it nears and makes the
extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based
primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 33.6N 27.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 36.4N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 41.8N 27.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/0600Z 49.5N 29.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1800Z 56.5N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
Forecaster Pasch
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY
EARLY FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 27.8W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central
Azores
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 27.8 West. Alex is moving
toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is expected by Friday
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions
of the Azores Friday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day
or so, and Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on
Friday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over
portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
to spread over the central Azores by early Friday.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of
Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016
Alex has been maintaining a fairly impressive appearance on
satellite imagery, with a well-defined 15-20 n mi diameter eye
embedded within cold cloud tops. Recent images do suggest some
warming/erosion of the tops over the southwest quadrant. Dvorak
T-numbers remain near 4.5 so the current intensity is held at 75
kt. Sea surface temperatures are now below 20 deg C and should
continue to cool along the path of Alex. This, along with a little
increase in southwesterly shear, should result in gradual
weakening. However, Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength
while passing near or over the Azores. In 24 hours or so, the
global models show a distinct warm front over the northeast portion
of the circulation. This suggests extratropical transition, and the
official forecast reflects this. Later in the forecast period, the
global models show the system merging with another extratropical
cyclone over the northern Atlantic.
The initial motion is slightly east of due northward or 015/19.
There is essentially no change to the track forecast reasoning.
Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave
mid-tropospheric trough that has been rotating around a broader
trough to its northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone
to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over
the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models are
in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and
the official forecast is near the consensus of these models. This
is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction.
Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it nears and makes the
extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based
primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 33.6N 27.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 36.4N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 41.8N 27.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/0600Z 49.5N 29.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1800Z 56.5N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
Forecaster Pasch