Seguimento América do Norte - 2014

Gore, Virginia. Via Michaela Raines
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@ellieeugenia in Harrisburg-Summerville area in Augusta, trees /lines down up this street a far as you can see.
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Litchfield, PA. Via Carol N John
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The latest view in Mt Pocono, PA. Sent in by Steve Bower Jr
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@WDBJ7: This is what #I-81 looks like at 141 in Roanoke County. I-81 there is at a standstill.
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@chrisjbritt: 93 North of Boston is a parking lot.
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Snow in Hackettstown, NJ. Via Glenn Seckinger
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NY
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Gastonia, NC
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California is experiencing its worst drought since record-keeping began in the mid 19th century, and scientists say this may be just the beginning. B. Lynn Ingram, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California at Berkeley, thinks that California needs to brace itself for a megadrought—one that could last for 200 years or more.

As a paleoclimatologist, Ingram takes the long view, examining tree rings and microorganisms in ocean sediment to identify temperatures and dry periods of the past millennium. Her work suggests that droughts are nothing new to California.

"During the medieval period, there was over a century of drought in the Southwest and California. The past repeats itself," says Ingram, who is co-author of The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climate Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow. Indeed, Ingram believes the 20th century may have been a wet anomaly.

"None of this should be a surprise to anybody," agrees Celeste Cantu, general manager for the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority. "California is acting like California, and most of California is arid." (Related: "Behind California's January Wildfires: Dry Conditions, Stubborn Weather Pattern.")

Unfortunately, she notes, most of the state's infrastructure was designed and built during the 20th century, when the climate was unusually wet compared to previous centuries. That hasn't set water management on the right course to deal with long periods of dryness in the future.

Given that California is one of the largest agricultural regions in the world, the effects of any drought, never mind one that could last for centuries, are huge. About 80 percent of California's freshwater supply is used for agriculture. The cost of fruits and vegetables could soar, says Cantu. "There will be cataclysmic impacts."
Clique para expandir...

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...-record-agriculture-pdo-climate/#.UwJ-6fldWao

Lá vão os preços dos alimentos subir (por motivos reais e devido aos especuladores que vão querer lucrar fácil).
 
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A seca na Califórnia assume contornos mais preocupantes porque tem uma dívida gigantesca. Se ela se prolongar vai ser muito problemático.
 
Chuvas de granizo e ventos fortes são esperados amanhã (19) para parte dos estados de Kansas e Missouri.
As chances de ocorrência de tornados e pequena.
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No dia 20 os estados mais afetados pelas tempestades devem ser Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Geórgia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana e Ohio.
As chances de ocorrência de tornado serão moderadas para as regiões oeste e central do TN, norte e centro do MS, noroeste do AL e oeste e centro de KY.
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No dia 21 tempestades severas e alguns tornados podem ocorrer nos estados de New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virgínia, Carolinas do Norte e Sul, Geórgia e Flórida.
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O vortex polar na origem do fenómeno climático de frio na América do Norte:


[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dI3yUuLEQEw#t=51"]NASA's AIRS Sees Polar Vortex Behind U.S. Big Chill [HD] - YouTube[/ame]

Fonte: NASA\JPL
 
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Primeiro "moderate risk" de 2014.
O "moderate risk" deve-se ao fato da possível formação de uma linha de tempestades, que pode gerar ventos fortes e prejudiciais, afetando principalmente parte dos estados de Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky e Indiana.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK *
* NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
* 0613 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

* VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

* ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
* FOR A SMALL PART OF SRN IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE
* TN...NRN MS AND FAR NWRN AL...

* ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO CNTRL
* GULF COAST...

* --POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVER PARTS OF THE OH
* AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES LATE
* THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT--

* ...SYNOPSIS...

* AN INITIALLY NEUTRAL-TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
* AS OF 12Z WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AS A 100+ KT MID
* LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE SRN PLAINS ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE AND
* SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY
* 21/12Z. THIS PROCESS WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
* OVERALL SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...LEADING TO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
* OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
* EXCEEDING 100-200 M AT 500 MB ALONG THE SYSTEM TRACK.

* AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL KS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
* DEEPENING LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD TO THE
* VICINITY OF THE WI-IL BORDER BY 21/00Z AND THEN LAKE SUPERIOR BY
* 21/12Z WHERE IT WILL HAVE BECOME DEEPLY OCCLUDED. MEANWHILE...THE
* TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY LATER TODAY
* FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX BEFORE SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE
* OH AND TN VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. THE
* MIGRATORY LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A W-E-ORIENTED WARM
* FRONT WHICH WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE POLEWARD
* ADVANCEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED OWING TO THE
* INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER TO THE NORTH OF THE I-70
* CORRIDOR. *

* ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF
* STATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

* THE CYCLOGENETIC CHARACTER OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE A
* MARKED INCREASE IN THE BREADTH AND INTENSITY OF WIND MAXIMA...BOTH
* IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT. THIS IN TURN WILL HASTEN THE POLEWARD
* TRANSPORT OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS BENEATH A RESIDUAL STEEP
* MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AS WELL AS ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
* ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.

* LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER DATA IN
* SUGGESTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OF
* CONVECTION INTO TSTMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE
* OH-MS-RIVER CONFLUENCE SWWD TO AT LEAST N-CNTRL LA. AT THE SAME
* TIME...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE UPSTREAM ALONG THE
* COLD FRONT FROM E-CNTRL MO/W-CNTRL IL TO NWRN LA...AS THE
* FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS COUPLED
* WITH THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL
* TROUGH.

* CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL DATA INDICATE A RAPID
* TRANSITION TO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE/QLCS AS THE TWO INCIPIENT
* CONVECTIVE BANDS MERGE. GIVEN A MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE
* AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPE OF 500-750 J PER KG/ AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
* SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
* 200-400 M2 PER S2/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED
* BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A
* FEW MESOVORTEX-RELATED TORNADOES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FROM
* WRN/CNTRL KY INTO NRN MS/NWRN AL WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
* FORCING FOR ASCENT...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST.

* EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE /AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK/ TO RAPIDLY
* ADVANCE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND
* GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 21/12Z.
* FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MS/AL/SERN LA...THE STORMS WILL PROGRESS MORE
* SLOWLY WITH THE LINE POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO SEGMENTS OR MORE
* DISCRETE CELLS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL INFLUX OF A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY
* LAYER INTO THIS REGION...AN INCREASE IN SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO
* POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z OVER ERN MS INTO WRN AL. AS
* SUCH...FIVE PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED EWD TO
* ACCOMMODATE THIS RISK.

* ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS TODAY...

* A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS AS OF
* 12Z OVER NWRN MO...TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE
* LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE SURMOUNTED BY DCVA AND THE
* DIVERGENT POLE OF A CYCLONIC MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE
* SRN PLAINS. GIVEN THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE UP TO 1000
* J/KG AND STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
* SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. THESE SAME PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED
* TO MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL RISK EWD/NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO
* CNTRL/ERN IA...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY NWRN IL.

* ..MEAD/SMITH.. 02/20/2014
Clique para expandir...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
 
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