Seguimento América do Norte - 2015

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Na segunda tivemos três tornados, na terça nenhum e na quarta dois.
Hoje há risco de tornado no Texas.

Entre sexta e domingo o tempo severo deve ser mais significativo.

Sex
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Sáb
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Dom
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Risco moderado em vigor para oeste e centro do Kansas e Oklahoma, sul de Nebraska e uma pequena área do norte do Texas.

Há risco de muitos tornados, podendo alguns serem fortes e de longa duração.
Granizo grande e ventos fortes também podem ser registrados.

Se a área a frente da dry line conseguir se desestabilizar de forma significativa, poderíamos ter um upgrade para alto risco.

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Devido ao trabalho não irei acompanhar ::sad:
 
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Parece o dia mais instável até agora para o pessoal da Troposfera que está nos EUA

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA
SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS. RISKS WILL INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND SEVERAL TORNADOES -- WITH A FEW LIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANT/LONG-LIVED.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERIOR WRN U.S. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY...TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS AN
EMBEDDED VORT MAX SHIFTS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. E OF THE MS RIVER.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE
INVOF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...A FAIRLY DEEP LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS NEB...WITH THE
TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK AND INTO
NRN/WRN TX. THE EMERGENCE OF THIS POTENT STORM SYSTEM INTO THE
PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE STORMS FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY MAY HAVE
SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE OVER SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION --
AND OVERALL DEGREE OF SEVERE RISK. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...THE
SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWD
ACROSS OK INTO N TX APPEARS OTHERWISE HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. THEREFORE -- DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK APPEARS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS NUMEROUS HIGH-RES
CAMS SUGGEST -- TO VARYING DEGREES -- THAT THE EARLY/ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT
SPREADS EWD ACROSS NEB/KS/OK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY OVER
WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- INVOF THE ADVANCING PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE AND LIKELY TO THE W OF MOST OF THE MORE RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS AND
ASSOCIATED UVV FOCUSED INVOF THE FRONT/DRYLINE...IT APPEARS THAT
EARLY REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WILL OCCUR -- LIKELY
IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME. ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK NWD INTO THE WRN KS
VICINITY...SOME OF THE REMNANT STORMS FARTHER E MAY ALSO REINTENSIFY
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY ONGOING CONVECTION.

AS MENTIONED...THE BACKGROUND KINEMATIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORMS DEVELOPING INVOF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO
RAPIDLY ORGANIZE...WITH RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED. AS STORMS MATURE AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SLY H8 FLOW INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 40
KT...RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED.

SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN ARCING BAND WITH TIME WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS NEB/KS/OK...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS TX
AS STORMS DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT AFTER DARK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/
Clique para expandir...
 
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