Seguimento Oceânia - 2025

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Voltando à realidade, lá é Verão. Darwin = Raios

 

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http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR1063.loop.shtml (clicar em weather observations à direita) http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94004.shtml 387+239+273= >899 mms em 3 dias

Com água precipitável nos 70mms, não é preciso muito para haver enormes acumulados https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-t...rl_colors&prod=ausf&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

 

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GFS a ser GFS

 

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/science...n-skin-cancer-australia-ozone-layer/104870806

 

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Na Austrália a escala de intensidade dos ciclones é diferente. Um furacão cat. 1 cá é um ciclone cat. 3 lá.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR163.loop.shtml#skip

>3:25



Relembro que por vezes as previsões no hemisfério sul são uma chatice.

AVNO = GFS; JTWC = centro de previsão da marinha/força aérea dos EUA

Mais recente boletim do BoM:

The forecast track of Zelia continues to be highly uncertain. The system is currently located in a col with mid-level anticyclones to the east and west, and an upper trough to the southwest, providing balanced steering influences.
Ultimately the westward anticyclone will be eroded by the upper trough and Zelia will turn south (leading to landfall). Guidance is split on the timing of this occurrence, with some suggesting weak ridging to the south of the system beforehand, which will drag it further west.

CIMSS upper wind analysis depicts ENE wind shear of around 20 knots over the system. The remaining environmental factors are favourable for development: the sea surface temperatures are extremely warm (above 31C) with very good upper outflow and divergence, particularly on the poleward side. The upper trough to the south will maintain (or increase) this upper divergence and the shear is lower along the forecast track. There is some drier air in the mid-levels to the west of Zelia, though this is generally forecast to stay to the west and is not expected to limit intensification before landfall. Intensification of Zelia at just above the standard rate is forecast, peaking at 95 knots (category 4) before landfall. Periods of rapid intensification are possible which would see a significantly higher intensity achievable, particularly in the scenario where the system moves further west and remains over water until the weekend.

JTWC:

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS RIDGING FROM THE WEST EXTENDS OVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS WEAK, SO THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PROPOGATE WESTWARD AND RIDGING OVER AUSTRALIA WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 60, EAST OF DAMPIER, BUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION ARE POSSIBLE. REGARDING INTENSITY, 17S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 120 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE VORTEX, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, TRACKING THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER WEST, NEARLY TO LEARMONTH. ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN POSSIBLE TRACKS, FANNING OUT FROM THE INITIAL POSITION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS, WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 105 (COAMPS-TC) TO 145 KTS (HAFS-A). THE AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS, CALLING FOR A PEAK OF 120 KTS, WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

 

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FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) CONTINUES TO MOVE LETHARGICALLY BETWEEN TWO DEEP-LAYER RIDGES TO ITS WEST AND EAST, NOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ABOUT 62 NM OFFSHORE OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA.

115 nós, chegando aos 125 nas próximas horas (JTWC) http://satview.bom.gov.au/

As ilhotas do Pacífico agradecem a pasmaceira https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

A temporada de ciclones no Pacífico Sul acaba a 30 de Abril.

Falta o trajeto do Zelia. Ainda devem faltar uns dias para a dissipação do Taliah.