Ciclones Tropicais na Austrália e Pacífico Sul - 2015/2016

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O ciclone Ula deverá agora dissipar-se no Pacífico após ter afetado diversas ilhas:

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Há pelo menos 3 mortos e 4 desaparecidos na sequência de um naufrágio.
 
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TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0207 UTC 03-Jan-2016

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

At 03/0000UTC (1pm Sunday New Zealand local time) Tropical cyclone ULA (968hPA, Category 3) was located near 19.8S 178.5W, about 100 kilometres northnortheast of Ono-i-Lau in Fiji Islands. Maximum sustained winds close to the centre is 80 knots (160km/hr). TC ULA is expected to continue moving southwest at 8 knots (16km/hr) and is expected to gradually weaken to a Category 2 cyclone tomorrow.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 04-Jan-2016

At 03/0000UTC (1pm Sunday New Zealand local time) Tropical cyclone ULA (968hPA, Category 3) was located near 19.8S 178.5W, about 100 kilometres northnortheast of Ono-i-Lau in Fiji Islands. Maximum sustained winds close to the centre is 80 knots (160km/hr). TC ULA is expected to continue moving southwest at 8 knots (16km/hr) and is expected to gradually weaken to a Category 2 cyclone tomorrow.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 07-Jan-2016

TC ULA is expected to take a more westerly track from Tuesday, (while located to the far south of Fiji) and is likely to be held off to the north of 25S by a building ridge of high pressure from the south.This ridge will also direct dry air into the system and this may help it to weaken to a Category 1 cyclone on Tuesday.

Some computer models show another tropical depression to form near French Polynesia on Wednesday, then deepen from Thursday while tracking towards the southeast. This system is expected to remain in a favourable environment for further development. The potential for
this to develop into a TC is low till Wednesday, and moderate thereafer.
 
A ULA resiste:

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SEVERE Tropical Cyclone Ula no longer poses a direct threat to Fiji, says Fiji Meteorological Service director Ravind Kumar.

Mr Kumar said as the category three system moved away from the group, the country would still experience associated showers.

"TC Ula was last located 335kilometres south of Kadavu yesterday and continues to follow a west south-west track at about 7km per hour," he said.

http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=336588
 
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Já começa a ser ridículo este ciclone:

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Hoje de manhã:

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 070841 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F EX-TC ULA CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S 175.1E AT 070600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 04
KNOTS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE WEST AND
WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 300
HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Clique para expandir...

Há pouco:

STORM WARNING 036 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 071904 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7
SOUTH 174.5 EAST AT 071800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 174.5E at 071800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING NW AT 04 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.6S 174.0E AT 080600 UTC
AND NEAR 18.6S 173.4E AT 081800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 035.
Clique para expandir...
 
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A Ula sobe para Cat. 3:

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HURRICANE WARNING 040 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 081859 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5 SOUTH 173.7
EAST AT 081800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.5S 173.7E at 081800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.9S 172.9E AT 090600 UTC
AND NEAR 19.4S 171.9E AT 091800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
 
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Mais uma atualização:

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HURRICANE WARNING 042 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 090700 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7 SOUTH
172.9 EAST AT 090600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 172.9E AT 090600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.3S 171.9E AT 091800 UTC
AND NEAR 20.2S 171.0E AT 100600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
Clique para expandir...

Dada a posição do ciclone, é agora possível acompanhá-lo na ferramenta dinâmica do instituto meteorológico australiano (equivalente à ferramenta oferecida pelo Eumetsat; tem menos opções mas mais resolução:

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http://satview.bom.gov.au/
 
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