Ciclones Tropicais na Austrália e Pacífico Sul - 2015/2016

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Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 117.9 degrees East, estimated to be 630 kilometres northwest of Broome and 700 kilometres north of Port Hedland.

Movement: south at 9 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Friday as it tracks towards the south and approaches the Pilbara coast. It is not expected to cause GALES in coastal areas on Wednesday or Thursday but GALES may develop on Friday.

Even if the system doesn't develop into a tropical cyclone, strong to gale force winds are likely to the north of the system centre.

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A depressão tropical está no noroeste da Austrália:

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Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South 117.7 degrees East, estimated to be 415 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 455 kilometres north of Karratha.

Movement: south at 12 kilometres per hour.

The low is gradually strengthening and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone during Friday as it tracks southwards towards the Pilbara coast. It is forecast to reach category 2 intensity when it makes landfall on Saturday morning between Pardoo and Karratha, including near Port Hedland.

Hazards:
GALES may develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Dampier, including Port Hedland and Karratha, during Friday evening or overnight into Saturday morning. If the system tracks further to the east then GALES may develop as far east as Bidyadanga. If the system tracks further west then GALES may extend as far west as Mardie during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may occur near the centre on Saturday morning and afternoon including in the Port Hedland area.

Tides between Pardoo and Karratha are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and possible flooding of low-lying coastal areas east of the crossing point.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is likely to develop over the Pilbara and far western Kimberley from Friday and extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and a Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment.

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O ciclone não deverá atingir áreas com grandes défices hídricos quer de curto prazo...

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... quer de longo prazo:

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Details of Tropical Cyclone Stan at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South 118.1 degrees East, estimated to be 220 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 290 kilometres north northeast of Karratha.

Movement: south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Stan lies to the north of Port Hedland and continues to track slowly south southeast towards the Pilbara coast. It is expected to reach category 3 intensity (severe tropical cyclone) prior to landfall Saturday afternoon or evening between Wallal and Whim Creek.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Whim Creek, which includes Port Hedland, early Saturday morning. There is the chance that GALES could develop as far east as Bidyadanga and as far west as Mardie during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are likely to develop near the track in coastal parts from around midday Saturday, including Port Hedland and surrounding areas, extending further inland later on Saturday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 170 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre as it makes landfall later on Saturday.

Residents between Wallal and Whim Creek, including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is occurring in parts of the Pilbara and far western Kimberley and will extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and Gascoyne Districts. A Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment, Pilbara Coastal Rivers and Fortescue River Catchment.

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O Stan pode atingir a costa australiana enquanto ciclone severo. Enquanto isso, ainda não aparece no radar:

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Mas os efeitos já são sentidos em Rowley Shoals:

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Não há ainda muita definição no radar. Na imagem também estão representadas as estações meteorológicas. Port Hedland, Bedout Island e Mandora são as mais próximas do local onde o ciclone fará o landfall. Bedout Island está no mar próximo da costa:

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Faltam menos de 8 horas para o Stan chegar a terra:

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Apesar de se prever uma intensificação, não tem bom aspeto:

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O Stan acabou por não chegar à categoria 3:

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Não parece haver muita força. A estação de Mandora, a este de Wallal e supostamente na zona do landfall, mostrava há pouco uma pressão de 994 hPa. Ainda não houve rajadas acima dos 75 km/h. Mas também parece estar um pouco longe do centro muito desorganizado.

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O Stan acabou por não ser nada de especial:

Tropical Cyclone Stan passed directly over Yarrie Station in Western Australia's Pilbara, but station owner Annabelle Coppin says it was nothing to write home about.

Communities dotted throughout the isolated Pilbara region braced themselves as the first major storm of the season made landfall on Sunday morning, but were left underwhelmed by the category two cyclone.

"It was a fizzer, the eye went over us - it went right over the top of us - when the eye goes over you, you think you're going to get more rain but we've only had 18mm so far," Ms Coppin told AAP.
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http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...a/news-story/67a1d56e2d0a9e4220fc9ad71adb11ce

Our WA community felt the impacts of Australia's first tropical cyclone for the 2015/16 season over the weekend. Here's some fast facts about tropical cyclone Stan:

- Crossed the coast near Pardoo on WA's Pilbara coast at 2am Sunday 31 January 2016, as a Category 2 intensity cyclone with estimated wind gusts of 150km/h
- Strongest wind gust recorded was 133km/h offshore at Rowley Shoals.
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https://www.facebook.com/bureauofmeteorology

Também é verdade que aquela zona tem uma densidade populacional muito baixa.

Na Austrália os nomes são seguidos, não havendo um reinício aquando de uma nova temporada.

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Como tal, o próximo ciclone ropical será a Tatiana. Como curiosidade, lá eles aceitam sugestões do público:

Requests by the public for tropical cyclone names

Important Note: All cyclone names are submitted to the World Meteorological Organization Regional Tropical Cyclone Committee for the SE Pacific for final approval. This committee can (and often does) reject or adjust names that are submitted to it and may substitute their own name. The reason for this decision may be:
  • Ambiguity or difficulty of pronunciation
  • Preference of a more common spelling
  • Similarity to other names on the Australian or other country’s list
  • Similarity to the name of a recent cyclones
  • Inappropriate meaning of the name as a word in another language of the Region
The Bureau of Meteorology receives many requests from the public to name Tropical Cyclones after themselves, friends, etc. The Bureau is unable to grant all these requests as they far out-number the number of Tropical Cyclones that occur in the Australian region.

The Bureau will only accept requests received in writing (not e-mail). The request cannot be immediately granted but the name will be added to a supplementary list. When a name is retired of similar gender and initial, a name can be included from this supplementary list (subject to checks to ensure it is not on the Southern Hemisphere retired name list or offensive in any of the languages of our international neighbours.)

Due to popular demand some letters in the supplementary list have at least two names listed for a particular gender. The following will therefore be CLOSED to new requests until further notice:

  • Male: A, B, D, F, J, L, R, S, T, WXYZ
  • Female: A, B, G, J, K, L, M, N, PQ, R, S, T, WXYZ
Note that it can take many decades for a suitable slot to become available, then a further 10-20 years for the names to cycle through, so it is likely to be well over 50 years before your requested name is allocated to a cyclone.
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