Furacão Ophelia

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Aviso 7...

Intensidade máxima - 70 nós dentro de 48h.

The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on the Ophelia beginning to lift out to the northeast by 72 h, and then gradually accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of an eastward-moving mid-tropospheric trough. The latest model guidance remains tightly packed, but it has also shifted northward, which brings Ophelia closer to the Azores in the 96-120 hour period. However, the new forecast track was not shifted northward and remains along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the NOAA HCCA consensus model and the more southerly ECMWF model.

The GFS and ECMWF models (...) are forecasting more vigorous strengthening after 96 h as Ophelia experiences some baroclinic interaction, especially by 120 hours. The strong baroclinic deepening on day 5 could be overdone somewhat given that the best jetstream dynamics are forecast to be about 300 nmi northwest of the surface low and frontal zone.
Clique para expandir...

tIRUemM.gif


Em termos globais, com o GFS as atenções viram-se para os Açores. Com o ECM resta saber a evolução, ainda incerta, da transição no triângulo ilhas-continente.

Mesmo no trajeto das próximas 24-48h há algumas pequenas divergências entre o GFS e o ECM. A ver se amanhã há mais consenso.
 
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A maior parte das outras saídas do ensemble do GFS mostram, de uma forma ou de outra, a saída operacional. Há exceções:

N7GpTIF.png


0Jmm2u0.png


Ainda faltam 36 a 48 horas para que o ciclone se mexa mais rápido. Muitas saídas e muito suspense :buh:

Não basta ser um calhau no meio do oceano. Muita sorte tem havido já que por aqui são raros os 'landfalls'.
 
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TXNT23 KNES 110606
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 11/0545Z

C. 30.3N

D. 36.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED BY OW YIELDS A DT OF
4.0. THERE ARE NO EYE ADJUSTMENTS. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 4.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...KIM
Yesterday the structure made it hard to determine Ophelia’s true intensity. However, this time the estimates are a unaminous T4.0 from SAB. Eye is clearly visible on IR imagery. ADT is having a hard time pinpointing the center, but it’ll be able to soon.
 
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 110834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 37.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
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