Local mais quente de Portugal ? 50°C é possível ?

[belem]

Re: Looked up july data for several Guadalquivir stations

Exacto, quero ver aonde vão as suas teorias de interpolações agora.


Apenas lhe pedi para fazer interpolações a partir de Córdoba para Puente Gentil.
Já lhe dei as coordenadas ( pode ir ao Google Earth ver) e a altitude.

So? Do it youself... There will be little difference between Ecija and Puente Genil. Simple...

Tinha uma boa oportunidade para provar que estava certo, mas não o fez e quando tentou falhou. Enfim sem resposta.

[But I am not interested in that. I saw the data of Moncorvo and it says 24,2 and 24,4. Now that is 25,8-24,2= 1,6 degrees cooler than Pinhão. And Pinhão is only slightly warmer (0,7 C) than Beja. We have to be carefull however: the period 1931-1960 was somewhat cooler than 1961-1990 and that one againa cooler than 1971-2000 etc.
So Mocorvo will be a bit warmer when we compare to Beja in Tmedia. But the maps we are talking about are maxima...

Mas eu quando comparei ambas só falei em média geral.

[I don't say that. I say my way is crude but does well enough to exclude errors of 5,5 to 8 K. And in general 1 K will be the limit, when it comes to Portugal and western Spain. I believe I already wrote that the Guadalquivir region is somehwat different in that it is open and flat. Now I live in an open and flat country, like I said, and continentallity over here increases much slower (1/5 of the Portugese figures) per km you go inland. The Guadalquivir is not the NW Europe, but it is different from anything found in Portugal everstill. Anyway: my calculations are spot on there also. Little differences...

Sem comentários. Fique lá com a taça.

[It doesn't matter too much in a country where rain is practically inexistent in the months we are talking about at the places we are talking about. Fr example: look at Hornachuelos. Now that station to me is in error. It is nothing special BTW.

It is well known, like I said before, that there are a number of Spanish stations (and anywhere else in the world) that do not measure correctly at all. Certainly older stations. >Which is why many older data have been dropped. Anyway: the warmer Hornachuelos station you point at gets a lot more rainfall than those supposedly dry areas in the Douro, and that is also the case in the two Hornachuelos stations you point me to: the cooler one receives signifcantly less rain than the abnormal warm one. We wonder why one stopped in 1969 and the other was started in 1968...May be because it was placed within the city limits? Looking at the data (coordinates) this might well be the case....

Neste caso pode ter influência, porque estamos a falar de locais quentes do interior.
Claro que mais precipitação ocasionaria mais vegetação, lagos, tudo fontes reflectoras de calor. Com superfícies mais áridas em regiões QUENTES, as condições das superfícies normalmente irradiam mais calor.

Is the Atacama desert the warmest place in Chile or South America? No. Is the driest place in Europe (Almeria) the warmest? Far from. So to deduce any temperature from that, while you have five stations in the Alto Douro region is a bit silly...

Péssima comparação a que deu. Sagres e o Cabo da Roca também são super secos, mas ninguém obviamente ia dar exemplos destas regiões para falar em calor de verão.
Como realcei em cima, estamos a falar de zonas QUENTES

You think so. So you trust these tables blindly, do you. I don't and with good reason. I already knew they existed (forgot about them, so thanks)

How about this one:

This is Badajoz, Talavera la Real. From 1951-1989. Altitude is 185 m. Justlike the other Badajoz La Real we find here:

http://www.ucm.es/info/cif/station/es-tala1.htm

Now it is 1964-1994.
http://www.ucm.es/info/cif/station/es-talav.htm

Oh my god: it is exactly the same place with an overlap of quite some time and yet the temperature all of a sudden jumped from 30,5 to 33,3 C That is a 2,8 C jump. Great. And in august it is 31,2 tot 33,9 C. Almost the same jump. We may expect some differences. But temperatures in that period did not rise by even 0,5 K. So how about that: these maps prove I am wrong?

Well, we have another Badajoz station that measured form 1931-1970 and what does it show:

http://www.ucm.es/info/cif/station/es-bada1.htm

Almost the same values is all others, bar the cool one. The cool on is in error. A big error. It is not difficult to see.

Hornachuelos...So you go DOWN 60 m, down and you go 15 km to the south and remain in virtually the same position. And temperatures just plumet 1,5 C, where they at least should rise. The older Hornachuelos station is simply wrong. It is not so difficult to understand that.

Another one: Sevilla San Pablo. Look here:

http://www.ucm.es/info/cif/station/es-sevil.htm

What? 37,22 and 7 W..It is near the city. And for some reason, over the period 1951-1994 it is about 4 C colder there then elsewhere. Someone left the freezer open all the time or what??

These data are absurd and occur throughout the territory.
I did calcalate the last 9 years for Hornachuelos, of which I know they use plantinum 1000 element in a well ventilated (andsometime artificially ventlated abriga). Now the last ten years hav not been very cool. They are the hottest on record. The average temperature fo all those years, with one day missing s....36,3 C.

There work is wrong in cases that we can show clearly. I have said it one haundred times: the Areaof the Guadiana nearBadajoz is s easy as it is so uniform and theyfucked it up bigtime. Using some stations in the field is a good idea, as long itis calibrated and stands tehre for a couple of years. So you get a clue.

MY interpolacoes worj very well, there are no errors to speak of. The weahterstation list you showed me is ridden with errors...Too bad..

Claro que o problema agora seria das estações e não dos seus cálculos.
E mudando de assunto, claro que os professores universitários que trabalham no IM têm muito a aprender com os seus cálculos básicos.

 

[J.S.]

Re: Looked up july data for several Guadalquivir stations

Tinha uma boa oportunidade para provar que estava certo, mas não o fez e quando tentou falhou. Enfim sem resposta.

I am simply not going to do so because you ask. Looking at the map it is a simple one, it will be somehting like Ecija. Judging from the data you show me, it is.

The one at Montoro is funny again: 35,2 C, 35,2 could be correct, but only for the start of the century. May it is higher situated, then it is possible. But these stations back than were really different from those now. A big difference is the use of old sensorshield which are prone to heating up themselves. The currect smaller sensorscreens have little problems with that.
The agrometeo stations in fact use at least in some locations, a ventilator to get rid of any possible problem like that. Unforunately they do not say exactly which one.

Neste caso pode ter influência, porque estamos a falar de locais quentes do interior.
Claro que mais precipitação ocasionaria mais vegetação, lagos, tudo fontes reflectoras de calor. Com superfícies mais áridas em regiões QUENTES, as condições das superfícies normalmente irradiam mais calor.

Yes, that is true. But the problem is that in Portugal in the summer there are many places that are superdry inland. Weather it is Amareleja, Pinhão, Beja, Elvas. They are all very dry in summer. The problem with those place with
300mm precipitation is that they remain dry in winter too. So for the summer, the effect is rather small.

Well...if you trust Hornachuelos with its old values (and I clearly do not), then that much warmer stations is also a lot wetter. Precipitation proves nothing, even not inland.

Claro que o problema agora seria das estações e não dos seus cálculos.
E mudando de assunto, claro que os professores universitários que trabalham no IM têm muito a aprender com os seus cálculos básicos.

The title of "professor" or whatever is no guarantee. The meterologist over here made a big error and the do so on a daily basis for my region. The local, former meteorologist who know has his own company, knows that. We talk to eachother regularly and it is well know. Only KNMI seems oblivious although they are starting totalk to take that station out of function. In the climatic atlas of 1971-2000, the 2 K error exists never the less...

My calculations do not fail in Portugal, simple is that. The influences you talk about are too little to make them go of the mark. You make too much of them. What you conistantly forget is the the 1,0 K rise per 100 m fall is a large number based on extremely dry air. In winter, for example it is only 0,48 or even 0,39 K in the western part of Portugal. So the very dry air is already calculated in it. It works reasonably well, because most parts of Portuga that are hot are also rather dry. Epsecially when we want to measure the average maximum temperatures. For minimumtemperatures, things can and in fact do look different, because tthings of coarse become much more humid.

The Guadalquivir basin had an average anomly this year between 2 and 3 C.
My calculation for Hornachuelos for example was 38,43. The average fot the last 9 years is 36,3 C.
For Cordoba, that average for 2001-2009 is now 37,0 and for Sevilla it is 36,1 C over that very period. One would expect Hornchuelos to be much closer to Cordoba, but it is also 20 m higher and 30 km closer to the sea and 10 km to the south. This gets us to 0,2*1+ 2,37*0,3+ 0,6*0,1= 0,614 cooler. Honrachuelos is 0,7 C cooler than Cordoba now. It just all adds up. And I am willing to say that it is + or - 0,5 K and may 1 K. But not more.

The stations with strange values are outliers because station faults.

Any explanation why Talavera la Real in your dat is 3 C warmer in version compared to the other, while it is in exactly the same location? Or Sevilla: more than 4 C colder than all other station.
I knew this because I had an argument about L aPalma del Condado. Teh agrometeo version showed 33,7 C or so at 172 m. The INM one showed 37,2 C just 100 m lower. I said: impossible. But of course some people from Huelva said it was " so hot, I couldn't say that from this and that". One looked it up, in 2004. The INM station was badly situatated in a horrible condition. It was in the citycentre, if I remember correctly...But still, you can find these 37,2 anywhwere. if you just look at Huelva and you now how close La Palma is to the sea and you know how much more inland Corodba etc is, you simply DO know it cannot ever contend with that station. But it are the enthusiasts (some) that insist and insist and insist.

My calculations show a uniform behaviour rhtoughout the Guadalquivir region and the data from agro stations show the same thing. Even though I'd expect a few to show higher temperatures, as those station sometimes are enclosed by trees etc or nearby buildings. I have seen the pictures, you know. But they use very good equipment, it is topnotch.

 

[belem]

Re: Looked up july data for several Guadalquivir stations

I am simply not going to do so because you ask. Looking at the map it is a simple one, it will be somehting like Ecija. Judging from the data you show me, it is.

The one at Montoro is funny again: 35,2 C, 35,2 could be correct, but only for the start of the century. May it is higher situated, then it is possible. But these stations back than were really different from those now. A big difference is the use of old sensorshield which are prone to heating up themselves. The currect smaller sensorscreens have little problems with that.
The agrometeo stations in fact use at least in some locations, a ventilator to get rid of any possible problem like that. Unforunately they do not say exactly which one..

A estação de Montoro fornece dados de temperatura desde 1955 até 1989!
São dados com 35 anos.
Tendo em conta a data dos registos e a duração, não me parece que sejam assim tão sujeitos a erro.

Yes, that is true. But the problem is that in Portugal in the summer there are many places that are superdry inland. Weather it is Amareleja, Pinhão, Beja, Elvas. They are all very dry in summer. The problem with those place with
300mm precipitation is that they remain dry in winter too. So for the summer, the effect is rather small..

Não. Se chove mais durante o inverno,primavera e outono, no verão vai sempre haver mais vegetação e até possíveis charcos temporários. Claro que isto são tudo fontes reflectoras dos raios solares.

Well...if you trust Hornachuelos with its old values (and I clearly do not), then that much warmer stations is also a lot wetter. Precipitation proves nothing, even not inland. .

Na maior parte dos casos tem influência.
Claro que se perto de Hornachuelos houvessem locais muito mais secos e expostos ao calor os valores seriam superiores. Não é porque existem outros locais mais frescos e secos, que se prova o contrário. Para isso até tinhamos a Antártida. Mas é nas zonas quentes mais secas, GERALMENTE, que se observam os maiores valores. Como pode facilmente observar é nas zonas áridas do mundo onde se observam os maiores valores de temperaturas máximas médias, máximas absolutas e até médias anuais.

The title of "professor" or whatever is no guarantee. The meterologist over here made a big error and the do so on a daily basis for my region. The local, former meteorologist who know has his own company, knows that. We talk to eachother regularly and it is well know. Only KNMI seems oblivious although they are starting totalk to take that station out of function. In the climatic atlas of 1971-2000, the 2 K error exists never the less...
My calculations do not fail in Portugal, simple is that. The influences you talk about are too little to make them go of the mark. You make too much of them. What you conistantly forget is the the 1,0 K rise per 100 m fall is a large number based on extremely dry air. In winter, for example it is only 0,48 or even 0,39 K in the western part of Portugal. So the very dry air is already calculated in it. It works reasonably well, because most parts of Portuga that are hot are also rather dry. Epsecially when we want to measure the average maximum temperatures. For minimumtemperatures, things can and in fact do look different, because tthings of coarse become much more humid.
The Guadalquivir basin had an average anomly this year between 2 and 3 C.
My calculation for Hornachuelos for example was 38,43. The average fot the last 9 years is 36,3 C.
For Cordoba, that average for 2001-2009 is now 37,0 and for Sevilla it is 36,1 C over that very period. One would expect Hornchuelos to be much closer to Cordoba, but it is also 20 m higher and 30 km closer to the sea and 10 km to the south. This gets us to 0,2*1+ 2,37*0,3+ 0,6*0,1= 0,614 cooler. Honrachuelos is 0,7 C cooler than Cordoba now. It just all adds up. And I am willing to say that it is + or - 0,5 K and may 1 K. But not more.
The stations with strange values are outliers because station faults.
Any explanation why Talavera la Real in your dat is 3 C warmer in version compared to the other, while it is in exactly the same location? Or Sevilla: more than 4 C colder than all other station.
I knew this because I had an argument about L aPalma del Condado. Teh agrometeo version showed 33,7 C or so at 172 m. The INM one showed 37,2 C just 100 m lower. I said: impossible. But of course some people from Huelva said it was " so hot, I couldn't say that from this and that". One looked it up, in 2004. The INM station was badly situatated in a horrible condition. It was in the citycentre, if I remember correctly...But still, you can find these 37,2 anywhwere. if you just look at Huelva and you now how close La Palma is to the sea and you know how much more inland Corodba etc is, you simply DO know it cannot ever contend with that station. But it are the enthusiasts (some) that insist and insist and insist..

Não está aqui em discussão os dados dessa estação agrometeorologica mas entendo o seu ponto de vista.
Gostaria também de saber a sua opinião sobre isto: de que forma acha que capacidade de retenção calorífica se via aumentada, se no Alto Douro, um local de cerca de 140 metros de altitude ficasse numa encosta baixa entre montes de grande altitude rodeando este local por todos os lados?

My calculations show a uniform behaviour rhtoughout the Guadalquivir region and the data from agro stations show the same thing. Even though I'd expect a few to show higher temperatures, as those station sometimes are enclosed by trees etc or nearby buildings. I have seen the pictures, you know. But they use very good equipment, it is topnotch.

JS, na minha opinião, a combinação de dados no campo com a teoria, é o ideal e será aquilo que sempre valorizarei mais. Não há teoria por si só, que possa contrariar isto. Espero que respeite e entenda isso. O trabalho do IM, não é uma certeza absoluta é uma aproximação e no entanto até foi baseado tanto na prática como na teoria.
Assim, não há teoria, por mais correcta que pareça, que possa pretender apresentar resultados mais exactos que esses.
E a meu ver, nada substitue uma colecção séria de informação em dados sobre as zonas mais quentes para depois colocar algumas estações meteorológicas que preencham os requisitos necessários para um funcionamento correcto.

 

[J.S.]

Re: Looked up july data for several Guadalquivir stations

A estação de Montoro fornece dados de temperatura desde 1955 até 1989!
São dados com 35 anos.
Tendo em conta a data dos registos e a duração, não me parece que sejam assim tão sujeitos a erro.

Well, to me they are. They are too cold. If I look at Adamuz, I see that. But it is well within 0,5 K difference I told you so not interesting to discuss these values. Oke.

Não. Se chove mais durante o inverno,primavera e outono, no verão vai sempre haver mais vegetação e até possíveis charcos temporários. Claro que isto são tudo fontes reflectoras dos raios solares.

They absorb warmthand reradiate it. Reflecting warmth best is sand (after snow). That is why woods are a bit warmer than open land. The snowcover has become longer in the alps in various places because they cut down woods.

Na maior parte dos casos tem influência.
Claro que se perto de Hornachuelos houvessem locais muito mais secos e expostos ao calor os valores seriam superiores. Não é porque existem outros locais mais frescos e secos, que se prova o contrário. Para isso até tinhamos a Antártida. Mas é nas zonas quentes mais secas, GERALMENTE, que se observam os maiores valores. Como pode facilmente observar é nas zonas áridas do mundo onde se observam os maiores valores de temperaturas máximas médias, máximas absolutas e até médias anuais.

No: Arica is not the warmest place in the world, nor south America. Almeria is not the warmest place in Europe, but it is the driest. Campo Maior is one of the warmest in Portugal, but not the driest (Faro is).
In general it is: least influence from the sea, low lying, as much to the south (in Europe) is most important. Dry air helps and a dry soil helps to get it. But it is rather indirect.

BTW: Moncorvo weatherstation is located at 415 m. So that is not much higher than Beja, I told you so...I found it out in....my book. And it is only a graph, but in the graph they wrote the altitude and the precipitation: is 562,2 mm per year. Period is likely 1901-1930 or 1931-1960.
I tell you what: where does that 300 mm data originate from? Any station? The driest station I currently know of is probably Faro at about 400 mm?

The driest air warms up 1 C /100 m as a maximum. Less dry, less warming. Moist air still warms up with 0,4 to 0,5 K though. But fohn is extremely dry and warms up by 1 K. 1,0 K is the maximum reached in Portugal. It is not like that everywhere, but if it is less and less, the higher places would do better in my calculations and the lower elevations (which we are looking for) do even worse. It is possible that it is 0,8 or 0,9 K for instance...But that wouldn't help your case.

Não está aqui em discussão os dados dessa estação agrometeorologica mas entendo o seu ponto de vista.
Gostaria também de saber a sua opinião sobre isto: de que forma acha que capacidade de retenção calorífica se via aumentada, se no Alto Douro, um local de cerca de 140 metros de altitude ficasse numa encosta baixa entre montes de grande altitude rodeando este local por todos os lados?

The maximum temperature rise per 100 m lower altitude would approximate 1 K. If you think this enclosed area would be very continental, then I would expect winters to be colder....
Now you said I was wrong with my calculations. I think the opposite is true. My calculations can show you which stations are in error (most likely), at least in Portugal and the Guadalquivir valley. I show you how.

Lets look at Hornachuelos (the one you choose, while you said I was cherrypicking), the nail to the coffin of my calculations....Explain this...
With 38,5 C in july it is 2,2 C warmer than Hornachuelos Agro (which is lower!), it is 2,3 C warmer than Cordoba, which is lower and more inland, it is warmer than Lora del Rio, 30 km to the west and 154 m lower.
So is it because of something special my calculations did not pick up. It is, but my calculations pointed me to this peculiarity...And that is this.
In winter, even though it is higher up and supposedly more continental, it is warmer still! 20 km to the east, at 150 m we find Alomodovar del rio. Which is 2 K colder (8,7 C). In summer, Almodovar is 2,7 K cooler..Cordoba Aeropuerto is also cooler in winter: 1,2 C COOLER). Lora del rio, 30 km closer to the sea and 140 m lower is still 0,7 K cooler. In winter.

And all stations with acceptable, similar sumertemperatures also have wintertemperature that vary little. And in all cases they are clearly colder than those warm winter, "continental" station in the same neighborhood.

Puente Genil (200m) you referred me too: same story. The place with 37,1 in july is 1,7 K warmer in summer than Puente Genil (the second) which is at
170 m. So lower and cooler??? In winter, the warmer one is 1,5 K warmer still. Both are before the warming period (data ending before 1990).
Montijo, Badajoz: look it up. Summer AND winter are much warmer (more than 1 C in winter and more than 3 in summer) . If continentality is the issue, we would not expect it.
Coria (caceres): more 39 C in july! Yes, sure..At 270 m. And also, funny, it is also 1,7 K warmer in winter than Badajoz, which is much 122 km to the south and less "encaixada" and 100 m lower altitude. Any credbility??
La Palma del Condado: clearly warmer than Gibraleon and Escacena in summer and winter. Etcetc.

This has nothing to do with continentallity or being enclosed from marine influences. Winters would be colder too. But in none of those cases with nearby stations, this is the case. The cause are probably:
1) enclosed in a garden or village
2) placed in a city, over stone (not grass)
3) not good maintained station
4) erratic registration (not close to 100% over the period, like Montoro where it never got over 40,0 C over 34 years...Not credible)
5) combination of 1,2, 3, 4 or a combination.

My calculations point me to these odd stations. Even though the calculation is better for Portugese intercomparison, it serves also as an intercomparison for the Guadalquivir basin at least lower inland.

JS, na minha opinião, a combinação de dados no campo com a teoria, é o ideal e será aquilo que sempre valorizarei mais.

As long as you measure according to standards that apply in all places and that are possible. So WMO standards (look 'm up). Many station in Portugal and Spain (and elswhere) have or have had big troubles with this. One of the reasons why 50+ temperatures that were measured were not validated. Quite rightly so.

Não há teoria por si só, que possa contrariar isto. Espero que respeite e entenda isso. O trabalho do IM, não é uma certeza absoluta é uma aproximação e no entanto até foi baseado tanto na prática como na teoria.
Assim, não há teoria, por mais correcta que pareça, que possa pretender apresentar resultados mais exactos que esses.
E a meu ver, nada substitue uma colecção séria de informação em dados sobre as zonas mais quentes para depois colocar algumas estações meteorológicas que preencham os requisitos necessários para um funcionamento correcto.

There I agree. But as there are no stations, so we discuss. And we discuss on what we do know and that is 1) data from nearby stations 2) theory's and 3) we test 'm. So far, even in places the 2,37 K might not apply (Southern Spain for example) at least in the Guadalquivir valley, it seems to do quite well. I can pick out the station that cannot possibly be correct. The errors in my calculations therefor are within 1 K and most of the time within 0,5 K.

I think that in all likelyhood, we wont find any place in Portugal that has a july maximum of 35,5 C. And a summer maximum of 34,0 C at most. But with global warming clearly breaking through the last 20 years in Europe and Iberia, it is a matter of time. Unfortunately...

 

[belem]

Re: Looked up july data for several Guadalquivir stations

Well, to me they are. They are too cold. If I look at Adamuz, I see that. But it is well within 0,5 K difference I told you so not interesting to discuss these values. Oke....

Não estávamos a falar de Adamuz, mas para mim isso tanto faz. O que tinha dizer sobre o assunto já disse.

They absorb warmthand reradiate it. Reflecting warmth best is sand (after snow). That is why woods are a bit warmer than open land. The snowcover has become longer in the alps in various places because they cut down woods....

Estamos a falar dos maiores valores de temperatura máxima, neste caso. É nas florestas onde encontra esses valores ou nos desertos e semi-desertos, em regiões equivalentes climaticamente?
O ar seco aquece mais rapidamente ou não?

First of all, Moncorvo weatherstation is located at 415 m. So that is not much higher than Beja, I told you so......

Sim, eu disse que era mais alto e bem mais a norte. Obrigado por confirmar.

I found it out in....my book (sorry I am late with it, but I bumped on it). And it is only a graph, but in the graph they wrote the precipitation: is 562,2 mm per year. Period is likely 1901-1930 or 1931-1960. In Pinhão it is 664 mm. In Campo Maior, it is (was) 571,5 mm.
I tell you what: where does that 300 mm data originate from. Because I do not even find that amount anywhere in adjacent Spain.

Em Espanha a altitude sobe por isso é normal que os valores sejam mais altos.
O Duero já nos veio aqui falar sobre isso, porque houve quem questionasse sobre qual seria a precipitação no lado espanhol.
Barca de Alva, por exemplo, já desce para 385 mm.
A origem dos dados de menos de 300 mm não sei qual é, mas certamente veio de algum livro, pois parece-me que imagem foi scanada.
Talvez alguém nos possa dizer qual é.
Mas esses dados são muito fáceis de ver, basta usar o google.
Tendo em conta as características locais, você duvida desses valores?

The driest air warms up 1 C /100 m as a maximum. Less dry, less warming. Moist air still warms up with 0,4 to 0,5 K though. But fohn is extremely dry and warms up by 1 K. If you already have very dry air on one side you'll see little extra warming ont he other side of mountains. Certainly away from the sea. In Portugal, locally (according to the theory) it has a maximum of 1,0 K. But if you hve moutains closer to the coast, or the first mountains from the coast, the air is more moist and it warms less rapidly. That is why it works for an intercomparison more inland. It won't work elsewhere or not as good. As I said: in my country it won't work at all....

Exacto o ar seco aquece mais depressa.
Sendo assim, uma zona comprimida e muito seca, deve aquecer bastante.

It maximum temperature rise per 100 m fall would approrixate 1 K. If you think this enclosed area would be very continental, then I would expect winters to be colder....
Now you said I was wrong with my calculations. I think the opposite is true. My calculations can show you which stations are in error (most likely), at least in Portugal and the Guadalquivir valley. I show you how.
Lets look at Hornachuelos (the one you choose, while you said I was cherrypicking)...

Obrigado pela atenção!
Antes tarde que nunca.


,

the nail to the coffin of my calculations....Explain this...
With 38,5 C in july it is 2,2 C warmer than Hornachuelos Agro (which is lower!), it is 2,3 C warmer than Cordoba, which is lower and more inland, it is warmer than Lora del Rio, 30 km to the west and 154 m lower.
So is it because of something special my calculations did not pick up. It is, but my calculations pointed me to this peculiarity...And that is this.
In winter, even though it is higher up and supposedly more continental, it is warmer still! 20 km to the east, at 150 m we find Alomodovar del rio. Which is 2 K colder (8,7 C). In summer, Almodovar is 2,7 K cooler..Cordoba Aeropuerto is also cooler in winter: 1,2 C COOLER). Lora del rio, 30 km closer to the sea and 140 m lower is still 0,7 K cooler. In winter.
And all stations with acceptable, similar sumertemperatures also have wintertemperature that vary little. And in all cases they are clearly colder than those warm winter, "continental" station in the same neighborhood.
Puente Genil (200m) you referred me too: same story. The place with 37,1 in july is 1,7 K warmer in summer than Puente Genil (the second) which is at
170 m. So lower and cooler???
In winter, the warmer one is 1,5 K warmer still. Both are before the warming period (data ending before 1990).
Montijo, Badajoz: look it up. Summer AND winter are much warmer (more than 1 C in winter and more than 3 in summer) . If continentality is the issue, we would not expect it.
Coria (caceres): more 39 C in july! Yes, sure..At 270 m. And also, funny, it is also 1,7 K warmer in winter than Badajoz, which is much 122 km to the south and less "encaixada" and 100 m lower altitude. Any credbility??
La Palma del Condado: clearly warmer than Gibraleon and Escacena in summer and winter. Etcetc.

This has nothing to do with continentallity or being enclosed from marine influences. Winters would be colder too....

Não estamos a falar dos invernos, mas de valores de temperaturas máximas médias, neste caso sobretudo registadas no verão.
Locais ligeiramente mais altos, podem ter verões mais quentes que locais mais baixos e até invernos mais quentes, porque as zonas mais baixas, podem localmente estar mais expostas a ventos mais frios ou a fortes fenómenos de inversão térmica.
Normalmente nem é assim que se passa, mas locais com valores anormalmente quentes ou frios, como estes que estamos a falar, por vezes tem características específicas locais.
Já vi que tem alguma dificuldade em aceitar isso.
Sabe o que são microclimas?
As leis climáticas gerais aplicam-se a microclimas ou a macroclimas?
Você usa regulamentos normalmente aplicados a macroclimas, espero que tenha consciência desse aspecto.
Um microclima precisa de regulamentos gerais e também de regulamentos específicos ( à escala local) senão não era um microclima.

As long as you measure according to standards that apply in all places and that are possible. So WMO standards (look 'm up). Many station in Portugal and Spain (and elswhere) have or have had big troubles with this. One of the reasons why 50+ temperatures that were measured were not validated. Quite rightly so....

Isso foi no século XIX. Não no século XX, tanto quanto sei.
Os regulamentos mudaram.
E sim, tenho esse objectivo de tirar valores ( ou promover acções nesse sentido) nesses locais de forma séria, penso que é mais honesto do que teorizar e tirar conclusões precipitadas.

There I agree. But as there are no stations, so we discuss. And we discuss on what we do know and that is 1) data from nearby stations 2) theory's and 3) we test 'm. So far, even in places the 2,37 K might not apply (Southern Spain for example) at least in the Guadalquivir valley, it seems to do quite well. I can pick out the station that cannot possibly be correct. The errors in my calculations therefor are within 1 K and most of the time within 0,5 K.

I think that in all likelyhood, we wont find any place in Portugal that has a july maximum of 35,5 C. And a summer maximum of 34,0 C at most. But with global warming clearly breaking through the last 20 years in Europe and Iberia, it is a matter of time. Unfortunately...

Campo maior, que nem fica numa das zonas mais quentes, tem 34,5ºc e o que é que tem assim tão de especial para estar junto a esses 35,5ºc?

E Moura que tem 34,8ºc?
De Moura tem aqui os dados, por exemplo:

http://www.meteopt.com/forum/climatologia/normais-climatologicas-de-moura-4396.html

JS, não vejo evoluções produtivas no nosso debate relativamente ao objectivo deste tópico. E não vejo porque devo acreditar mais na sua opinião, no que a opinião do IM, que alia teoria com prática e foi feita por pessoas muito qualificadas para este tipo de trabalhos.
Não precisa de insistir nestes pontos, porque eu tenho a minha opinião e você a sua.

 

[mesogeiakos]

Olá de Atenas

Peço desculpa pelo meu Português, mas eu uso o tradutor do Google para se comunicar.

Lamento ter de interromper o debate, mas tenho algumas coisas a dizer.

Há uma série de pesquisas sobre 50.0C na Europa. Na maioria das vezes não temos certeza sobre a validade de um registro.

Parece que a Organização Meteorológica Mundial aceita apenas dados de estações com standars WMO

Em 2007, uma extensa pesquisa foi realizada na Europa, para determinar o registro correto.

Parece que o meu país, a Grécia tem o registro oficial na Europa. Aqui em Atenas!! 48.0C in 10/07/1977

http://wmo.asu.edu/europe-highest-temperature

sobre Portugal acho que registro correto está na Amareleja em 2003

Anyway I am sorry for my crappy Portuguese and I hope google translator did not make many mistakes

My best from Greece

 

[belem]

Olá de Atenas

Peço desculpa pelo meu Português, mas eu uso o tradutor do Google para se comunicar.

Lamento ter de interromper o debate, mas tenho algumas coisas a dizer.

Há uma série de pesquisas sobre 50.0C na Europa. Na maioria das vezes não temos certeza sobre a validade de um registro.

Parece que a Organização Meteorológica Mundial aceita apenas dados de estações com standars WMO

Em 2007, uma extensa pesquisa foi realizada na Europa, para determinar o registro correto.

Parece que o meu país, a Grécia tem o registro oficial na Europa. Aqui em Atenas!! 48.0C in 10/07/1977

http://wmo.asu.edu/europe-highest-temperature

sobre Portugal acho que registro correto está na Amareleja em 2003

Anyway I am sorry for my crappy Portuguese and I hope google translator did not make many mistakes

My best from Greece

Olá

Benvindo ao forum.
Tenho gregos na minha família!
Sim, já sabemos que o registo oficial é o da Amareleja, mas como há muitos locais mais quentes em Portugal do que a Amareleja estamos a falar sobre essas regiões e promover a possibilidade de fazer medições nessas zonas.

Obrigado pelo seu input.

 

[mesogeiakos]

Olá

Benvindo ao forum.
Tenho gregos na minha família!
Sim, já sabemos que o registo oficial é o da Amareleja, mas como há muitos locais mais quentes em Portugal do que a Amareleja estamos a falar sobre essas regiões e promover a possibilidade de fazer medições nessas zonas.

Obrigado pelo seu input.

Também estou interessado nesta questão.

Eu fiz minha pesquisa e eu acredito que Portugal pode ter áreas de média máxima de julho até 34.5C (esta é minha opinião)

No entanto Gualdaquivir parece ter maior dinâmica na Península Ibérica nos temps máximas média do verão na minha opinião

Aqui na Grécia dinâmica maior em julho max média está em Attica na bacia de Atenas, com cerca de 34.0C

Hope this helps and again forgive my awful Portuguese

 

[belem]

Também estou interessado nesta questão.

Eu fiz minha pesquisa e eu acredito que Portugal pode ter áreas de média máxima de julho até 34.5C (esta é minha opinião)

No entanto Gualdaquivir parece ter maior dinâmica na Península Ibérica nos temps máximas média do verão na minha opinião

Aqui na Grécia dinâmica maior em julho max média está em Attica na bacia de Atenas, com cerca de 34.0C

Hope this helps and again forgive my awful Portuguese

Moura, em Portugal já ultrapassa esse valor limite de 34,5ºc, atingindo os 34,8ºc.
Mas ainda está algo distante das zonas mais quentes de Portugal.
Normalmente, ficam em locais mais baixos e mais abrigados, ou então em zonas baixas/áridas rodeadas por grandes montanhas, como no caso do Alto Douro e Tejo Interior.
Obrigado pelos dados da Grécia, são sempre interessantes.

 

[J.S.]

Também estou interessado nesta questão.

Eu fiz minha pesquisa e eu acredito que Portugal pode ter áreas de média máxima de julho até 34.5C (esta é minha opinião)

No entanto Gualdaquivir parece ter maior dinâmica na Península Ibérica nos temps máximas média do verão na minha opinião

Aqui na Grécia dinâmica maior em julho max média está em Attica na bacia de Atenas, com cerca de 34.0C

Hope this helps and again forgive my awful Portuguese

No, there is a station near Trikkala reaches 35 C. I read it in the library over here. But it could be 35,4 or 34,5. The highest I ever saw in Portugal was shown to me jsut yet: 34,8 in Moura from 1941 to 1963. But currently it has risen a bot and 35,0- 35,5 is most likely the value for 1971-2000.

The Guadalquivir region reaches slightly higher values and it tops of near 36,5.
Warm enough if you ask me! But it is a much bigger region You could travel for hours and be in the same heath all the time, in Portugal it is more confined to some smaller valleys.

 

[J.S.]

I agree

This is getting not where you want us to go. You evade questions you have no answers for but are in facton topic. There is no reason whatsover to expect the stations that you came up with to give us credible data.
A debate about things we do not know involves thinking. If we come up with certain stations, data etc or theories it involves thinking about them. If you come up with Hornachuelos and I say I think it is not looking alright, I look for reasons other than my theory to get some confirmation...or not. In this case, we can split continentality and urban heat isle effect in one way. Continentallity, you are so full about, means that summers are warmer and winters are colder. In the places you picked as a confirmation that it indeeds gets warmer locally, it turns out that for odd reasons winters are a lot warmer too. This thus indicates the spots you pick do not support your point, namely continentallity of a place.

So, as usual at least in this discussion, you do not go into that. That is a constant. You say: I don't want to talk about winter. We are not, we are talking about the credibility of a metstation. In this case, it is winter that confirms something is not right at all. If it would be another thing that could show us that it isnt properly registrating, Í could use that. In this case, it is winter.

We were not talking about precipotation too, were we. So why do you bring it up then? You bring it up as a proxy for high temperatures somewhere, inland. Wintertemperatures here served as a proxy for the error in a station.

The funy thing is that if you start talking about Moncorvo, you do not have the data we are talking about. You come up with averages. I respond, I do not evade. My response is that in all cases I know of minimumtemperatures are higher and max temperatures (the point here) are lower. Pinhão afterwards confirms this. Its average is higher than Amareleja, but the maximum temperature is 1 C lower.

Precipitation: I do not evade your question. I look into the data and ask you where it actually is. You have no maximumtemperatures for Moncorvo, you have no maximumtemperatures at all for any place in the Douro valley of Portugal that supports your theory and deny all other data as useless. And now, you even do not have a single piece of evidence for 300 mm or less.
Yet this also unknown figure has to support your unknown temperature in an unknown place.

That is not arguing or debating, that is wishfull thinking. And that is what is the constant in your so called debating style. Whether it is the precipiation, average maximumtemperatures, local extreme averagemaxima...You believe all extreme numbers and deny everything that could or does not support it.

In the end, the discussion is between someone going into depth and another not doing anything likewise, other than saying what he said in the beginning "I believe the IM". You believe anything no matter what, as long as it confirms your wishes.

Stations that are not well maintained are tobe found everywhere, certainly in Spain and Portugal also. Ir emeber one picture of Amareleja and I think even that one does not even come close to WMO standards...I can look it up for you. I know of at least a couple in Spain also. But lets not get into this, you are not getting into anything

I saw you wrote to our greek friend that in Portugal we KNOW there are a lot warmer places. We know....any data that confirms it?

 

[belem]

No, there is a station near Trikkala reaches 35 C. I read it in the library over here. But it could be 35,4 or 34,5. The highest I ever saw in Portugal was shown to me jsut yet: 34,8 in Moura from 1941 to 1963. But currently it has risen a bot and 35,0- 35,5 is most likely the value for 1971-2000.

The Guadalquivir region reaches slightly higher values and it tops of near 36,5.
Warm enough if you ask me! But it is a much bigger region You could travel for hours and be in the same heath all the time, in Portugal it is more confined to some smaller valleys.

A bacia do Guadiana ainda tem uma extensão assinalável, mas claro que Guadalquivir tem uma extensão ainda maior.
Zonas muito quentes em Portugal é que são mais confinadas a vales mais pequenos.

 

[mesogeiakos]

Moura, em Portugal já ultrapassa esse valor 34,5ºc, atingindo os 34,8ºc.
Mas ainda está algo distante das zonas mais quentes de Portugal.
Normalmente, ficam em locais mais baixos e mais abrigados, ou então em zonas baixas/áridas rodeadas por grandes montanhas, como no caso do Alto Douro e Tejo Interior.
Obrigado pelos dados da Grécia, são sempre interessantes.

Acabo de ver os dados de Moura .... mas eu acho que são problemáticas ..

eles são apenas 22 anos. Normalmente precisamos de uma série temporal de pelo menos 30 anos.

Por exemplo, há 21 anos na Grécia, temos Sparti com 34.7C (1950-1971) ou por 17 anos, temos Thiseio, Atenas, com 35,2!

 

[mesogeiakos]

No, there is a station near Trikkala reaches 35 C. I read it in the library over here. But it could be 35,4 or 34,5. The highest I ever saw in Portugal was shown to me jsut yet: 34,8 in Moura from 1941 to 1963. But currently it has risen a bot and 35,0- 35,5 is most likely the value for 1971-2000.

The Guadalquivir region reaches slightly higher values and it tops of near 36,5.
Warm enough if you ask me! But it is a much bigger region You could travel for hours and be in the same heath all the time, in Portugal it is more confined to some smaller valleys.

Oficialmente, a mais elevada é de N. Filadelfeia, Atenas, com 33,5!

Trikala é consistentemente baixas quando comparadas com Larisa


Mas para Gualdaquivir acho Andujar poderia ter cerca de 37,5!

 

[belem]

Re: I agree

This is getting not where you want us to go. You evade questions you have no answers for but are in facton topic. There is no reason whatsover to expect the stations that you came up with to give us credible data.
A debate about things we do not know involves thinking. If we come up with certain stations, data etc or theories it involves thinking about them. If you come up with Hornachuelos and I say I think it is not looking alright, I look for reasons other than my theory to get some confirmation...or not. In this case, we can split continentality and urban heat isle effect in one way. Continentallity, you are so full about, means that summers are warmer and winters are colder. In the places you picked as a confirmation that it indeeds gets warmer locally, it turns out that for odd reasons winters are a lot warmer too. This thus indicates the spots you pick do not support your point, namely continentallity of a place.

Eu só falei na continentalidade como um dos factores.

So, as usual at least in this discussion, you do not go into that. That is a constant. You say: I don't want to talk about winter. We are not, we are talking about the credibility of a metstation. In this case, it is winter that confirms something is not right at all. If it would be another thing that could show us that it isnt properly registrating, Í could use that. In this case, it is winter.

Já vi que os dados de Hornachuelos deixaram-no confuso, só porque os seus cálculos deram errado. Tal como Montoro.
Paciência, JS, a dinâmica climática nem sempre é paralela à ideia matemática que tem dela.

We were not talking about precipotation too, were we. So why do you bring it up then? You bring it up as a proxy for high temperatures somewhere, inland. Wintertemperatures here served as a proxy for the error in a station.

Ok. Mas onde está a prova que aqueles dados de inverno estão errados?
Só porque fica um pouco mais alto?
Mirandela não é mais fria no inverno do que Moncorvo e não é mais baixa?
Como já disse, JS, estamos a falar de microclimas, locais que são diferentes do normal.

The funy thing is that if you start talking about Moncorvo, you do not have the data we are talking about. You come up with averages. I respond, I do not evade. My response is that in all cases I know of minimumtemperatures are higher and max temperatures (the point here) are lower. Pinhão afterwards confirms this. Its average is higher than Amareleja, but the maximum temperature is 1 C lower.

Que confusão... Eu apenas disse que Moncorvo tinha sensivelmente a mesma média geral para os 2 meses mais quentes que BEJA, que fica mais a sul e mais baixa em altitude ( embora menos no interior), para confirmar que a continentalidade é um dos factores com mais peso no Alto Douro que no Alentejo.
E os dados de Moncorvo, já lhe foram enviados...

Precipitation: I do not evade your question. I look into the data and ask you where it actually is. You have no maximumtemperatures for Moncorvo, you have no maximumtemperatures at all for any place in the Douro valley of Portugal that supports your theory and deny all other data as useless. And now, you even do not have a single piece of evidence for 300 mm or less.

Você é que é preguiçoso e não seguiu as minhas instruções.
Quer que ponha aqui os resultados do google?

Yet this also unknown figure has to support your unknown temperature in an unknown place.

Sim, a única pessoa aqui a falar de dados desconhecidos e criar cálculos disparatados, contrariando versões oficiais científicas aprovadas e aceites não sou eu.

That is not arguing or debating, that is wishfull thinking. And that is what is the constant in your so called debating style. Whether it is the precipiation, average maximumtemperatures, local extreme averagemaxima...You believe all extreme numbers and deny everything that could or does not support it.

Eu acredito em teorias suportadas por evidências práticas, que certamente não são as suas, mas as do IM.

In the end, the discussion is between someone going into depth and another not doing anything likewise, other than saying what he said in the beginning "I believe the IM". You believe anything no matter what, as long as it confirms your wishes.

Quem me dera.

Stations that are not well maintained are tobe found everywhere, certainly in Spain and Portugal also. Ir emeber one picture of Amareleja and I think even that one does not even come close to WMO standards...I can look it up for you. I know of at least a couple in Spain also. But lets not get into this, you are not getting into anything.

Podia ajudar e tornar-se útil, contactando as autoridades competentes, em vez de encher o meu tópico com os seus desabafos inoportunos.

I saw you wrote to our greek friend that in Portugal we KNOW there are a lot warmer places. We know....any data that confirms it?

Sim, dados oficiais e científicos, produzidos no campo de estudo.
Sinceramente não acredito que professores universitários profissionais em meteorologia, não saibam utilizar cálculos básicos e idênticos aos seus. Eu diria que foram mais longe, teorizando com cálculos muito mais complexos e tiraram dados do campo.
Foram esses dados que coloquei aqui e se quiser ponho outra vez.