Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2024)

[StormRic]

Landfall em breve, menos de duas horas

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...EYEWALL OF RAFAEL APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...3 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

Rafael is nearing western Cuba and is expected to make landfall
within the next couple of hours.

The next update will be provided in the full advisory at 4 PM
EST...2100 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 82.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown/Beven

 

[StormRic]

O furacão entrou em terra perto de Playa Majana, mais a Leste do que anteriormente previsto, mais perto de Havana que fica assim dentro da área de ventos >50 nós.

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
415 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL MAKES LANDFALL IN THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA...

Rafael has made landfall in the Cuban province of Artemisa just
east of Playa Majana. Maximum sustained winds at landfall are
estimated to be near 115 mph (185 km/h). The estimated minimum
central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

The next hourly update will be provided at 5 PM EST (2200 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 415 PM EST...2115 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 82.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven

 

[StormRic]

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
800 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...8 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

A few hours ago, Mariel, Cuba reported sustained winds of 80 mph
(130 km/h) and a peak gust of 115 mph (185 km/h) as the eye of
Rafael passed nearby.

The next hourly update will be provided at 9 PM EST...0200 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[StormRic]

Rafael desistiu da costa dos EUA do Golfo, vira para sul na direcção do México.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.

 

[Aristocrata]

Imagem satélite de Vapor de Água:

A zona central do Golfo do México apresenta ar muito seco (áreas a amarelo) o que levará ao enfraquecimento gradual desta tempestade.

 

[StormRic]

A zona central do Golfo do México apresenta ar muito seco (áreas a amarelo) o que levará ao enfraquecimento gradual desta tempestade.

Se ele virar para sul, mas não há consenso dos modelos, alguns viram-no para norte ainda.

Spoiler: Discussão 17

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Rafael has made a resurgence this afternoon. The hurricane has
apparently mixed out some of the dry air from earlier today and
become better organized, with a ragged eye that has emerged in
satellite imagery and a more cohesive ring of deep convection
surrounding its center. On the last pass through the eye earlier
this afternoon, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the
central pressure had fallen several millibars from earlier passes.
They also reported a few observations of 700-mb flight-level winds
in excess of 100 kt, with a peak of 107 kt. These data support
raising the initial intensity to 90 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael this evening.

The improved structure of the hurricane could make it more resilient
to the negative effects of dry air and westerly shear in the near
term, so some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out tonight.
However, the overall model trends favor weakening through much of
the 5-day forecast period as Rafael moves into a drier mid-level
environment and encounters stronger shear by this weekend. The
updated NHC intensity prediction has been nudged upward through 24 h
and downward at later forecast times, but still lies near or above
the simple- and corrected-consensus aids. It is possible that the
hostile environmental conditions could cause Rafael to weaken even
faster and lose organized convection by the end of the 5-day period.

Rafael is moving west-northwestward (295/8 kt) around a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. As
this ridge builds to its north, the hurricane is expected to move
generally westward through Saturday. There is still quite a bit of
track forecast uncertainty thereafter, with larger than normal
spread among the various track models. Many of the models (including
the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) slow Rafael down
and turn it southwestward in response to ridging over the western
Gulf and northern Mexico. However, the GFS and Canadian models show
a slow northward turn between an upper trough over the central U.S.
and a ridge to the east. No major changes were made to the NHC track
forecast this cycle, which continues to favor the former scenario.
However, future larger adjustments to the track forecast could be
required. If model solutions like the GFS were to verify, Rafael
would encounter a stronger shear environment and likely weaken
faster than shown in the official NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.7N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

 

[StormRic]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL GETS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 87.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.

Spoiler: Discussão 18

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Satellite imagery this evening shows that Rafael has become better
organized, with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops
in the eyewall getting colder. However, reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that this has not yet
resulted in strengthening. The central pressure is near 965 mb, and
a combination of 700-mb flight level winds and dropsonde data
supports an initial intensity of 90 kt. Interestingly, this is at
the lower end of the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion is now 280/8 kt, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as
Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. After that,
the track guidance is still quite divergent. The Canadian, NAVGEM,
and COAMPS-TC models call for the cyclone to turn northward or
northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast as it gets affected by
the large deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States.
The GFS, which previously supported this scenario, is now calling
for a slow anticyclonic loop over the central Gulf of Mexico, and
this is also the forecast of the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. The
ECMWF, deterministic UKMET, and the GFS-based regional hurricane
models still show a turn toward the southwest and south as a narrow
ridge builds between the hurricane and the aforementioned trough.
To add to the uncertainty, the GFS and ECWMF ensembles still have
numerous tracks supporting both the northward and southward turns.
Based on the continued guidance spread and continuity from the
previous forecast, the new track forecast continues to lean toward
the southward scenario, although the new track is a little slower
than the previous track to match the overall slower set of guidance.

Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and
the hurricane is crossing a warm eddy in the Loop Current. This
combination should at least maintain the current intensity for the
next 12-24 h, and slight strengthening cannot be ruled out. After
that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear
is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into
the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and
the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show an increased
weakening rate between 24-60 h to better fit the trend of the
guidance. The intensity forecast generally follows the faster
weakening rate of the global and GFS-based regional hurricane
models, as the statistical-dynamical models have a slower rate of
weakening. It should be noted that if Rafael turns northward, it
would move over cooler sea surface temperatures and encounter
stronger shear, which would likely cause a faster weakening than
currently forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[StormRic]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuba-left-without-electricity-after-hit-hurricane-rafael-2024-11-07/

 

[StormRic]

Parece que a temporada continua, agora será a vez da 'Sara':

"
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system
moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward,
the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean
Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally
northwestward, by early next week. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Roberts "

 

[Revenge]

 

[StormRic]

Tempestade Tropical Sara já está adicionada à temporada:

"Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES"

A precipitação e consequentes "potenciais inundações repentinas catastróficas" são o maior perigo deste ciclone tropical, com localmente mais de 500mm possíveis em 72 horas na costa das Honduras:

 

[Orion]

Espantoso, tendo em conta todas as contrariedades. *A* previsão ainda está por se concretizar https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html vs https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html vs http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

A 1 de Dezembro, como sempre, haverá resumo oficial https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml