Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2024)
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Afgdr
Cumulonimbus
Depois de várias semanas de muita atividade tropical, eis que o Atlântico se encontra mais calmo:
Existe apenas uma área sob investigação - Invest 94L - com baixa probabilidade de se tornar um ciclone tropical (20% em 2 e em 7 dias).
Existe apenas uma área sob investigação - Invest 94L - com baixa probabilidade de se tornar um ciclone tropical (20% em 2 e em 7 dias).
Afgdr
Cumulonimbus
Até ao momento, foram nomeados 13 sistemas tropicais no Atlântico, dos quais 9 foram furacões e 4 atingiram a categoria de major hurricane. Houve um "potencial ciclone tropical", que não chegou a ser nomeado.
O sistema com maior longevidade foi Beryl (10 dias), seguido de Leslie (9,5 dias). O sistema mais intenso foi Milton (180 mph), seguido de Beryl (165 mph), os únicos furacões cat 5 até agora.
A ACE atual situa-se nos 140,6 - o que faz de 2024 uma época acima do normal.
O sistema com maior longevidade foi Beryl (10 dias), seguido de Leslie (9,5 dias). O sistema mais intenso foi Milton (180 mph), seguido de Beryl (165 mph), os únicos furacões cat 5 até agora.
A ACE atual situa-se nos 140,6 - o que faz de 2024 uma época acima do normal.
Incrível Oscar, repentinamente, literalmente sem aviso, aparece como furacão:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure
located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier
this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image
that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better
organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on
the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation
was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery
missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band
scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First
light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation
has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense
overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has
formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak
estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with
a 35 kt initial intensity.
Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This
motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is
initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the
north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon
expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to
slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba
in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue
amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically
deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical
cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple
TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF
forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of
southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker
members slower and further west and stronger members being captured
by the trough.
Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for
strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity
forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the
eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite
rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its
north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There
could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the
circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and
could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down.
After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small
Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the
middle of next week.
Key Messages:
1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for those locations.
2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure
located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier
this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image
that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better
organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on
the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation
was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery
missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band
scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First
light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation
has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense
overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has
formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak
estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with
a 35 kt initial intensity.
Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This
motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is
initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the
north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon
expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to
slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba
in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue
amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically
deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical
cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple
TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF
forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of
southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker
members slower and further west and stronger members being captured
by the trough.
Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for
strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity
forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the
eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite
rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its
north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There
could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the
circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and
could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down.
After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small
Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the
middle of next week.
Key Messages:
1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for those locations.
2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast
intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the
system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb
flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989
mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A
dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150
m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports
upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained
winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly,
and is substantially higher than the previous one.
Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also
issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a
Tropical Storm Warning.
Key Messages:
1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been
issued for those locations.
2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening.
3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast
intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the
system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb
flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989
mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A
dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150
m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports
upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained
winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly,
and is substantially higher than the previous one.
Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also
issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a
Tropical Storm Warning.
Key Messages:
1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been
issued for those locations.
2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening.
3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Oscar é um furacão bastante pequeno.
IR Satellite Loop for Hurricane OSCAR | Tropical Tidbits
Hurricane OSCAR IR Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Última edição:
80 nós previstos para as próximas 24 horas (perto do limite superior de Cat.1), esta temporada não deixa de surpreender:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
O texto do Aviso #3 também revela a surpresa do próprio NHC:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
O texto do Aviso #3 também revela a surpresa do próprio NHC:
WTNT41 KNHC 192048
TCDAT1
Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar.
After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a
resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that
Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny
hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having
these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to
diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew
for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth
noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are
currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt
from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C
also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval
of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals
with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance
leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A
dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer
mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A
blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed
of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with
hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center,
with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting
tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily
in the northern semicircle.
Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes
indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a
subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the
next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas
this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is
soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging
southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in
Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter,
as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the
hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning
back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little
further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA
and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few
models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence.
The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very
small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the
fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or
hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right
now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is
at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an
estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more
intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite
susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions.
SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear
increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very
dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the
storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today,
small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity
changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is
able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the
deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest
forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time.
Key Messages:
1. Oscar is expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this
evening and overnight, and could bring hurricane conditions to
eastern Cuba during the next day or two. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a
Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.
2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. Minor coastal
flooding is also possible along the north shore of Cuba later on
Sunday.
3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
TCDAT1
Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar.
After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a
resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that
Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny
hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having
these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to
diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew
for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth
noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are
currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt
from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C
also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval
of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals
with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance
leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A
dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer
mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A
blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed
of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with
hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center,
with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting
tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily
in the northern semicircle.
Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes
indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a
subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the
next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas
this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is
soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging
southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in
Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter,
as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the
hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning
back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little
further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA
and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few
models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence.
The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very
small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the
fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or
hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right
now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is
at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an
estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more
intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite
susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions.
SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear
increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very
dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the
storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today,
small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity
changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is
able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the
deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest
forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time.
Key Messages:
1. Oscar is expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this
evening and overnight, and could bring hurricane conditions to
eastern Cuba during the next day or two. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a
Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.
2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. Minor coastal
flooding is also possible along the north shore of Cuba later on
Sunday.
3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
Última edição:
De vez em quando acontece 
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...opical-storms-forecasting-difficult-forecasts
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...opical-storms-forecasting-difficult-forecasts
Já não está previsto que o pequeno furacão Oscar chegue a fazer landfall em Cuba, mas ainda continua com as mesmas previsões de intensidade dos ventos.
Note-se que a zona de ventos com força de furacão tem um raio diminuto, apenas até cerca de 10 Km do centro.
Note-se que a zona de ventos com força de furacão tem um raio diminuto, apenas até cerca de 10 Km do centro.
Como se em Cuba já não tivessem problemas, em particular com os sucessivos apagões da rede eléctrica, o Oscar vai ainda fazer uma visita à costa norte da zona Leste da ilha, nesta nova previsão que contraria a anterior:
Última edição:
O "mini-furacão" ('tiny hurricane') continua com topos muito frios, < -80ºC e um olho mais alargado (24 a 36 Km). Fez landfall na Grande Inagua nas Bahamas de sudeste, e continua em direcção à costa norte de Cuba estando prevista entrada em terra entre Baracoa e Yamaniguey, a sueste de Punta Gorda.
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...OSCAR STEADY IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NORTH
COASTLINE OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 73.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
767
WTNT41 KNHC 201459
TCDAT1
Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Oscar remains a compact hurricane as it nears its next landfall in
the northeastern coast of Cuba. The Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance has been performing another resources permitting
mission, finding that Oscar remains a small hurricane, though the
last several fixes do indicate the eye is a bit larger than
observed yesterday, with a 15-20 mile wide eye. This eye feature is
also being occasionally observed on radar imagery from Guantanamo
Bay. On satellite, Oscar still remains well organized with a small
central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops below -80 C. In
fact, the subjective and objective intensity estimates based on
satellite are quite a bit higher than yesterday at this time. From
the aircraft in-situ data, a blend of the flight level, SFMR, and
dropsonde data still supports a current intensity of 70 kt this
advisory.
Oscar has made its turn to the west-southwest, with the current
estimated motion from recon fixes at 250/7 kt. The narrow mid-level
ridge that was originally north of Oscar has shifted westward while
a weakness develops farther east from a mid-latitude trough, and
that has resulted in the steering over the hurricane shifting more
equatorward, allowing the west-southwestward motion. However, the
trough's weakness will continue to grow and also migrate westward,
and Oscar still seems likely to slow to a crawl after it moves
inland over Cuba. Ultimately Oscar is still expected to reemerge
into the southwestern Atlantic in 36 h and migrate northeastward as
it becomes captured by the deep-layer trough. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and is
quite similar to the prior track forecast.
Oscar appears to be holding its own today, and not much change in
intensity is expected before it reaches the northeastern Cuba coast
this afternoon as a hurricane. There is high terrain in eastern Cuba
that is likely to severely disrupt the small inner-core of Oscar
after it moves inland. Some of the global model guidance (especially
the GFS) shows that Oscar could weaken more over than shown here.
Assuming Oscar survives its passage over Cuba, the NHC forecast
shows it emerging back offshore as a tropical storm in 36-48 h.
Environmental conditions will be quite unfavorable for additional
tropical development by that time, with increasing northwesterly
shear and very dry mid-level air. Ultimately Oscar will finally be
absorbed by a larger deep-layer baroclinic trough over the western
Atlantic after 72 h, similar to the prior forecast.
Key Messages:
1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba.
2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua
Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and
evening.
3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Wednesday. In
addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the
southeastern Bahamas through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
WTNT41 KNHC 201459
TCDAT1
Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Oscar remains a compact hurricane as it nears its next landfall in
the northeastern coast of Cuba. The Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance has been performing another resources permitting
mission, finding that Oscar remains a small hurricane, though the
last several fixes do indicate the eye is a bit larger than
observed yesterday, with a 15-20 mile wide eye. This eye feature is
also being occasionally observed on radar imagery from Guantanamo
Bay. On satellite, Oscar still remains well organized with a small
central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops below -80 C. In
fact, the subjective and objective intensity estimates based on
satellite are quite a bit higher than yesterday at this time. From
the aircraft in-situ data, a blend of the flight level, SFMR, and
dropsonde data still supports a current intensity of 70 kt this
advisory.
Oscar has made its turn to the west-southwest, with the current
estimated motion from recon fixes at 250/7 kt. The narrow mid-level
ridge that was originally north of Oscar has shifted westward while
a weakness develops farther east from a mid-latitude trough, and
that has resulted in the steering over the hurricane shifting more
equatorward, allowing the west-southwestward motion. However, the
trough's weakness will continue to grow and also migrate westward,
and Oscar still seems likely to slow to a crawl after it moves
inland over Cuba. Ultimately Oscar is still expected to reemerge
into the southwestern Atlantic in 36 h and migrate northeastward as
it becomes captured by the deep-layer trough. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and is
quite similar to the prior track forecast.
Oscar appears to be holding its own today, and not much change in
intensity is expected before it reaches the northeastern Cuba coast
this afternoon as a hurricane. There is high terrain in eastern Cuba
that is likely to severely disrupt the small inner-core of Oscar
after it moves inland. Some of the global model guidance (especially
the GFS) shows that Oscar could weaken more over than shown here.
Assuming Oscar survives its passage over Cuba, the NHC forecast
shows it emerging back offshore as a tropical storm in 36-48 h.
Environmental conditions will be quite unfavorable for additional
tropical development by that time, with increasing northwesterly
shear and very dry mid-level air. Ultimately Oscar will finally be
absorbed by a larger deep-layer baroclinic trough over the western
Atlantic after 72 h, similar to the prior forecast.
Key Messages:
1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba.
2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua
Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and
evening.
3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Wednesday. In
addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the
southeastern Bahamas through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...OSCAR STEADY IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NORTH
COASTLINE OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 73.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Última edição:
WTNT31 KNHC 201750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...OSCAR APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 74.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...OSCAR APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 74.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Perfeitamente visível um olho bem formado, landfall iminente.
