Previsão e Seguimento dos Ciclones no O. Índico - Temporada 2017/2018

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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43 - 23:30 PM IST November 15 2018
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GAJA (BOB09-2018)
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Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast: Red Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm GAJA over southwestern Bay of Bengal moved further west southwestwards with a speed of 17 km/h during past 6 hours and lay centered near 10.5N 80.3E, about 55 km east southeast of Nagapattinam (Tamil Nadu) and 50 km east northeast of Vedaranniyam (Tamil Nadu).

It is very likely to move west southwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu coast, south of Nagapattinam within next 3 hours as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 55 knots gusting to 65 knots.

As per the satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal between 9.5N to 12.5N and 78.5E to 82.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 60 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high. Estimated central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 992 hPa.

Storm Surge Warning
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Storm surge of height of about 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of Puducherry at the time of landfall.

Damage Expected over districts of Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of Puducherry:
Major damage to thatched huts/houses, roof tops may blow off and unattached metal sheets may fly. Damage to power and communication lines. Major damage to Kutcha & minor damage to Pucca roads. Breaking of tree branches and uprooting of large avenue trees. Damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.

Forecast and Intensity
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12 HRS 10.3N 78.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS 10.5N 76.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
 
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