Parece que há a confirmação de que os GFS aumentarácos membros do "ensemble" de 10 para 14 (2 novos -, 2 novos +) a partir de Fevereiro de 2006, são boas notícias um aumento de 40%
Os dados dos 18 satelites da NOAA serão inseridos nas condições iniciais dos GFS de 2ªfeira na run das 12z (eles já usaram NOAA 14,16 e 17).
Bem se as condições forem favoráveis, poderemos ver uma depreessão associada a um fluxo de ar húmido e quente, que encontraria condições de "ridge" forçado pelo Jet Stream Polar e que pode provocar uma precipitação consideravel no dia 12..
Mas era preciso que as condições fossem prefeitas.
As coisas começam a melhorar ligeiramente a partir de hoje à tarde. Quarta feira teremos mais precipitação, sendo significativa apenas a norte do sistema montanhoso Sintra - Montejunto - Lousã - Estrela.
Aviso lançado pelo Eurpean Storm Forecast Expirement:
" CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 10 Oct 12:00 - Tue 11 Oct 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 10 Oct 09:51 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER
SYNOPSIS
Monday at 9 UTC... in the mid-troposphere a broad trough stretches from near Iceland to the Canary Islands upstream of a blocked flow pattern formed by high pressure over western Russia and the Baltic States and a low over the southern Balkans. Patches of low latent instability linger over the central Mediterranean.
DISCUSSION
...Portugal, western Spain...
Rather warm and moist air is advected northward in the area between Madeira and the Iberian peninsula. Convection is occurring across an area west of Lisbon and further south in association with tropical storm Vince as well as across southern parts of the peninsula. In response to the diurnal cycle, convection should become more widespread over land this afternoon while advection of storms off the sea will become more important as well. With low-level shear increasing to over 10 m/s near Spain, some storms may develop rotating updrafts resulting a small threat of hail, strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The strongest storms are expected across the Portugese and Spanish south coasts, where deep-layer shear will be strongest. "