Norther
Cumulonimbus
Esta melhor organizado neste momento
Seguimento Açores e Madeira - Janeiro 2016
- Thread starter Thomar
- Data de início
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O novo portal está no ar! Novos meteogramas, cartas, e mais. Mais informações neste tópico
Seguimento Meteorológico: Litoral Norte | Interior Norte e Centro | Litoral Centro | Sul | Açores e Madeira | Livre
Previsões: Curto e médio prazo: até 2 semanas | Longo prazo: mensal e sazonal (Regras e links úteis nos 1ºs posts)
Facebook | Avisos IPMA/Alertas ANEPC
Kamikaze
Cumulus
Confirmo o que disse o Peterboss.
É oficial: ele chegou à Terceira.
Verdade seja dita, se permanecesse sempre assim seria menos mau. Ou seja, Muito vento e muita chuva mas ainda nada de catastrófico.
Atenção: Nota-se que, com o passar dos minutos, desde as 6:00, as condições estão a piorar de forma exponencial.
É oficial: ele chegou à Terceira.
Verdade seja dita, se permanecesse sempre assim seria menos mau. Ou seja, Muito vento e muita chuva mas ainda nada de catastrófico.
Atenção: Nota-se que, com o passar dos minutos, desde as 6:00, as condições estão a piorar de forma exponencial.
Hazores
Nimbostratus
Bom dia a todos,
E começou o vento e chuva mais intensa pela zona oeste da ilha Terceira...
Agora sim começa -se a perceber que está não é uma tempestade igual às outras, a sustentabilidade do vento é diferente...
E começou o vento e chuva mais intensa pela zona oeste da ilha Terceira...
Agora sim começa -se a perceber que está não é uma tempestade igual às outras, a sustentabilidade do vento é diferente...
LMCG
Cumulus
Ilha das Flores na Boca da Vereda 26,5 m/ = 95,4 km/h.
Rajadas junto ao solo de 60/70 km/h.
Estive a olhar para os dois modelos mais conhecidos de alta resolução especializados para ciclones tropicais, e nenhum dos dois mantém ventos médios sustentados de intensidade de cat1 (>64kt) a quando da passagem pelos Açores.
HWRF 00-18z
GFDL 00-18z
Mas o NHC mantém esse cenário de ventos de intensidade cat1, embora numa área pequena. Além da normal cautela, pode haver outras boas razões para isso. Primeiro não termos aviões a lançar sondagens como noutras áreas, e assim estamos sempre um bocado às escuras, dependentes de estimativas dvorak por satélite e de modelos, o que aumenta a incerteza.
Outra razão, tal como ontem referi que um modelo global não vê de todo um ciclone tropical desta pequena dimensão, um modelo especializado em dinâmica tropical como os que acima deixei, pode não ver depois bem a dinâmica da fase extra-tropical e as duas actuam em simultâneo a partir daqui. Se leram a discussion que postei atrás, o próprio NHC não se deve sentir inteiramente confortável nestes processos de transição, eles indicam que pediram algum input ao Ocean Prediction Center que tem maior knowhow em meteorologia extra-tropical.
Dito isto, julgo que a pequena área de ventos mais fortes estará entre o centro e uma faixa a leste. Os ventos de intensidade de tempestade tropical esses abrangem uma área mais alargada e o período mais intenso do dia será entre as 9h e as 15h.
HWRF 00-18z
GFDL 00-18z
Mas o NHC mantém esse cenário de ventos de intensidade cat1, embora numa área pequena. Além da normal cautela, pode haver outras boas razões para isso. Primeiro não termos aviões a lançar sondagens como noutras áreas, e assim estamos sempre um bocado às escuras, dependentes de estimativas dvorak por satélite e de modelos, o que aumenta a incerteza.
Outra razão, tal como ontem referi que um modelo global não vê de todo um ciclone tropical desta pequena dimensão, um modelo especializado em dinâmica tropical como os que acima deixei, pode não ver depois bem a dinâmica da fase extra-tropical e as duas actuam em simultâneo a partir daqui. Se leram a discussion que postei atrás, o próprio NHC não se deve sentir inteiramente confortável nestes processos de transição, eles indicam que pediram algum input ao Ocean Prediction Center que tem maior knowhow em meteorologia extra-tropical.
Dito isto, julgo que a pequena área de ventos mais fortes estará entre o centro e uma faixa a leste. Os ventos de intensidade de tempestade tropical esses abrangem uma área mais alargada e o período mais intenso do dia será entre as 9h e as 15h.
Neste momento o tempo mantêm-se como descrito a pouco, mas alerta-se que vai piorar por volta das 8h (hora dos Açores)
LMCG
Cumulus
Em São Miguel o vento está a crescer... 47,7 m/s = 171,72 km/h.
Rajadas junto ao solo de 110/120 km/h.
ACTUALIZAÇÃO ao nível de precipitação;
São Jorge: 16.1mm
Pico: 2.5mm
Terceira: 2.8mm
Graciosa: 1.6mm
Horta: 3.3mm
São Miguel: 2.5mm
Santa Maria: 0.7mm
São Jorge: 16.1mm
Pico: 2.5mm
Terceira: 2.8mm
Graciosa: 1.6mm
Horta: 3.3mm
São Miguel: 2.5mm
Santa Maria: 0.7mm
LMCG
Cumulus
Na Terceira o vento está a aumentar 37,1 m/s = 133,56 km/h.
Rajadas junto ao solo de 90 km/h.
Chuva em Angra do Heroísmo parou.
Apenas sopra o vento mas com fraca intensidade.
Apenas sopra o vento mas com fraca intensidade.
O padrão do campo de vento estimado para as 6z é mais ou menos isto:
Valores em nós (kt). Rajadas e zonas mais altas são superiores.
Valores em nós (kt). Rajadas e zonas mais altas são superiores.
Kamikaze
Cumulus
Como afirmou o LMGC, posso confirmar que, segundo informação recebida há minutos, neste preciso momento, as rajadas já andam na ordem dos 90 km/h nas cotas menos elevadas.
Para os mais desatentos, os Açores são ilhas de origem vulcânica e, inclusivamente, com vulcões activos. Logo, por consequência, são ilhas com uma orografia extremamente elevada, o que leva a índices extremamente elevados de vento. Comparações com outros fenómenos recentemente ocorridos no continente português são, muito respeitosamente, francamente exageradas.
Para os mais desatentos, os Açores são ilhas de origem vulcânica e, inclusivamente, com vulcões activos. Logo, por consequência, são ilhas com uma orografia extremamente elevada, o que leva a índices extremamente elevados de vento. Comparações com outros fenómenos recentemente ocorridos no continente português são, muito respeitosamente, francamente exageradas.
Novo aviso das 9h
Vento revisto ligeiramente em baixa, mas mantém ainda a classificação de Furacão.
Vento revisto ligeiramente em baixa, mas mantém ainda a classificação de Furacão.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016
...ALEX WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AZORES...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES
LATER THIS MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 27.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central
Azores
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located
near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is moving toward
the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A northward motion and a faster
forward speed are expected this morning and afternoon, followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest tonight and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions
of the central Azores this morning.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the
next day or so. However, Alex will likely lose its tropical
characteristics by this afternoon or tonight while it moves over
colder waters.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). Wind gusts to tropical storm force continue to be
reported over portions the eastern and central Azores.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread across
all of the eastern and central Azores this morning. Hurricane
conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by late
morning.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through today, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall should
diminish across the Azores by late afternoon.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of
Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016
The overall convective pattern of Alex has continued to erode since
the previous advisory. However, conventional and microwave satellite
imagery indicate that there is still enough inner-core convection
and a small radius of maximum winds to warrant keeping Alex as a
hurricane for this advisory. Satellite classifications continue to
decrease, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based
on a blend of the TAFB current intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt and
a current T-number of T3.5/55 kt.
Alex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial
motion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track
slightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position,
there are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then
northwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow
in the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over
the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track,
the center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the
central Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and
regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the
consensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.
Most of the coldest cloud shield has now shifted into the western
semicircle, a signal that extratropical transition is likely
beginning. With Alex now moving over 16C sea-surface temperatures,
and with colder water still ahead of the cyclone, transition to
an extratropical cyclone should be complete within the next 12
hours. However, global models suggest that there will be enough
baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds after
transition occurs despite the cold waters of the north Atlantic.
The 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant
based on quality wind reports from ship BATFR17. The wind field is
expected to continue to expand as Alex undergoes extratropical
transition at higher latitudes. The wind radii forecasts are based
primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 36.8N 27.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 41.4N 27.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/0600Z 48.7N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 62.3N 37.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016
...ALEX WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AZORES...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES
LATER THIS MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 27.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central
Azores
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located
near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is moving toward
the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A northward motion and a faster
forward speed are expected this morning and afternoon, followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest tonight and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions
of the central Azores this morning.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the
next day or so. However, Alex will likely lose its tropical
characteristics by this afternoon or tonight while it moves over
colder waters.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). Wind gusts to tropical storm force continue to be
reported over portions the eastern and central Azores.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread across
all of the eastern and central Azores this morning. Hurricane
conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by late
morning.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through today, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall should
diminish across the Azores by late afternoon.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of
Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016
The overall convective pattern of Alex has continued to erode since
the previous advisory. However, conventional and microwave satellite
imagery indicate that there is still enough inner-core convection
and a small radius of maximum winds to warrant keeping Alex as a
hurricane for this advisory. Satellite classifications continue to
decrease, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based
on a blend of the TAFB current intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt and
a current T-number of T3.5/55 kt.
Alex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial
motion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track
slightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position,
there are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then
northwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow
in the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over
the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track,
the center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the
central Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and
regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the
consensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.
Most of the coldest cloud shield has now shifted into the western
semicircle, a signal that extratropical transition is likely
beginning. With Alex now moving over 16C sea-surface temperatures,
and with colder water still ahead of the cyclone, transition to
an extratropical cyclone should be complete within the next 12
hours. However, global models suggest that there will be enough
baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds after
transition occurs despite the cold waters of the north Atlantic.
The 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant
based on quality wind reports from ship BATFR17. The wind field is
expected to continue to expand as Alex undergoes extratropical
transition at higher latitudes. The wind radii forecasts are based
primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 36.8N 27.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 41.4N 27.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/0600Z 48.7N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 62.3N 37.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
LMCG
Cumulus
O vento continua a aumentar... em Santa Maria já vai nos 39,0 m/s = 140,4 km/h.
Junto ao solo 90/100 km/h.
LMCG
Cumulus
Em São Miguel o vento está a crescer... 48,9 m/s = 176,04 km/h.
Rajadas junto ao solo de 120 km/h.