Seguimento América do Norte - 2013

ktivnews: http://www.ktiv.com/Global/category.asp?c=197766

Moville IA
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@Jeff_Piotrowski

14 pessoas ficaram feridas em Wayne.
 
Slight Risk para parte de Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, Indiana e Kentucky.
O potencial tornádico é de 5%.

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Tornado Watch está em vigor neste momento para parte dos estados de Illinois, Tennessee e Kentucky.
Até o momento dois tornados foram relatados, um no Tennessee e o outro em Wisconsin.

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Caraca como isso aconteceu assim tao cedo :surprise:

Eu andei pesquisando sobre Casper e e uma cidade com indice pluviometrico incrivelmente baixo o mes de outubro nao passa de 30mm.

Sendo que a cidade tem um clima semiarido :confused:

Isso e bem impressionate !
 
Risco moderado para amanhã nos estados de Ohio, Indiana, Michigan e partes de Illinois e Kentucky.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN IL INTO
IND...OH...SRN MI AND NRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND A PORTION OF THE NERN AND SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER JET NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING SEWD
INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH. ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH THE MID MS...OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...REACHING
WRN PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SFC CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS...WHILE A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND A FEW
TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE
MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S ALONG
COASTAL TX WITH 70 NOT FAR OFFSHORE. A STRONG 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL
ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY WITH MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT DIABATIC WARMING IN MUCH OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR
BELT SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM
WILL BE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH A PLUME OF EWD
DEVELOPING 7-7.5 MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN WAKE OF WARM ADVECTION
STORMS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500-1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER JET EXIT
REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHOULD SFC BASED WARM SECTOR
INITIATION OCCUR...80+ KT MID-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAST
MOVING STORMS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
/SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP/ WILL DEPEND ON MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH LEWP AND
BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES ALSO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

...NERN U.S....

STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OUTPACE THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY
APPROACH THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
MAY PERSIST WITH REMAINING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION LATE THIS PERIOD.
Clique para expandir...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

@NWSSPC- We issued a Day 2 Moderate Risk for severe weather on Sunday. Here are past November Day 2 Moderates (since 1998)
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O SPC emitiu um alto risco de tempo severo para partes de Indiana, Illinois, Ohio e Michigan.
O risco de tornados é alto.
Este é o segundo alto risco de 2013 e o primeiro alto risco em Novembro desde 15 de Novembro de 2005.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...AND SRN MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA...FROM MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND EASTERN MISSOURI NEWD INTO THE LWR
GRT LKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH AND MDT
RISK AREAS...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES/WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS...EXPECTED OVER THE OH VLY AND SRN
GREAT LKS REGION TODAY/TNGT...

POTENT CNTRL PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MID-LVL WIND SPEEDS AOA
100 KTS...WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS/MID MS VLY LATER
TODAY...AND ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY BY EARLY TNGT...BEFORE TURNING
MORE NEWD ACROSS LWR GRT LKS/NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT SHOULD TRACK
FROM SE IA THIS MORNING INTO NRN LWR MI BY EARLY TNGT. COLD FRONT
TRAILING S AND SW FROM THE LOW...NOW EXTENDING THROUGH NW MO AND FAR
ERN KS...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY...OVERTAKING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER MO...AND REACHING WRN OH/N CNTRL KY
THIS EVE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE LWR GRT
LKS...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TNGT/EARLY
MON.

COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG TO INTENSE WIND FIELD WITH APPRECIABLE
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OVER A FAIRLY WIDE AREA WILL YIELD A BROAD
SWATH OF SVR WEATHER FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VLY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST/MOST CONCENTRATED
SVR THREAT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY STRONG AND/OR LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES...SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE OH VLY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
TNGT.

...MID MS/OH/LWR TN VLYS NEWD TO LWR GRT LKS/WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
THROUGH EARLY MON...
LATEST OBSERVED DATA SHOW SFC LOW ALREADY STARTING TO DEEPEN OVER S
CNTRL IA...WITH LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS
CNTRL MO...ALONG AND E OF PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH. AT UPR
LVLS...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT EXIT REGION OF CNTRL PLNS JET STREAK
WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND INTO
NRN/CNTRL IL BY MIDDAY.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WITH THE JET
STREAK...CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60 F/...AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF MERGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING OVER ERN MO AND CNTRL/NRN IL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA FROM ERN IA INTO
FAR NRN IL/SRN WI.

INTENSITY OF LOW TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY WITH 700 MB
SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY /SBCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J PER
KG/...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BEGINNING IN FAR ERN MO...AND
THEN CONTINUING ENE ACROSS MUCH OF IL...IND...FAR SRN WI...SRN MI
AND WRN OH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WHILE STRENGTH OF SHEAR /RELATIVE TO DEGREE OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
AND BUOYANCY/...AND DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN STORMS MAY
PROVE TO BE LIMITING FACTORS...SETUP NONETHELESS APPEARS CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING A FEW LONG-TRACK/POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS EVE AS LINEAR FORCING INCREASES ALONG
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL
BROKEN LINES...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND RESIDUAL SUPERCELL
CIRCULATIONS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND EWD INTO THE
NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD/DCVA...AND PRESENCE OF EXITING
CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGEST AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG WINDS
EARLY MON EWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

FARTHER S...MID-LVL WARMING ON S SIDE OF AMPLIFIED MIDWESTERN JET
STREAK MAY SOMEWHAT HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT/DELAY SVR THREAT IN
VERY MOIST/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER
THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A LOW
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR STORMS /INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A
TORNADO OR TWO/...WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY
TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS RECEIVING ENHANCED AFTN SFC HEATING
Clique para expandir...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
 
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