Seguimento Europa 2009

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Um vídeo muito bom hoje da Alemanha (Augsburg), começa com um espectacular timelapse da frente de rajada (gust front) e acaba com muito granizo e vento.

De facto muito bom o vídeo, imagens impressionantes. :surprise:
Belo achado Vince. :thumbsup:
 
Uii, esses vídeos!!!

Quer o de Arnedo, quer o de Augsburg são o estado de sítio!
Algo impressionante!

Por aqui, em Viena, Áustria, houve algo que não percebi bem ontem.
O dia esteve quente e limpo até meio da tarde, altura em que veio a frente de trovoada. No entanto não passou de nuvens altas e pelo que eu vi no satélite as 3 células gigantes que se encontravam ontem na Europa Central passaram duas a norte e uma a sul, e eu estava no meio das 3!

Não houve sequer um pingo ou trovão, apenas vento e nuvens, mas pelos vistos houve mesmo espectáculo do grande na Alemanha!

Mas foi o dia mais quente do ano. Mínima 19º, Máxima 28.5º.
Às dez da noite tinha 23º! Hoje amanheceu calmo, fresco e cinzento, sem qualquer precipitação.
 
Raging storm wallops Germany, leaving one man dead

A Bavarian man was reported dead and a train conductor in Baden-Württemberg severely injured on Wednesday after severe storms swept through the country overnight.
A 26-year-old man was driving an all-terrain vehicle near Hauzenberg in Passau county when a tree fell on him and he later died of his injuries, police reported. Several other people in the region were injured in weather-related accidents too. In Waldenreut a man fell from his roof after attempting to repair storm damage and suffered a shoulder injury.
Meanwhile a woman near Waldkirchen was hospitalised after being struck by lightning in her car.
A family of four camping near Ottach in lower Bayern narrowly escaped with their lives when heavy gusts pushed their camper wagon 30 metres into the Danube river. Police closed the A8 motorway between Adelzhausen and Odelzhausen due to heavy rainfall and gale force winds overnight.
Uprooted trees caused most of the 140 accidents police reported overnight. Many residents also reported flooded cellars. The tempest also hit the world’s largest hops-growing area of Hallertau. Farmers feared more than 2,500 hectares of the total 15,000 hectares planted were damaged by heavy rain.
In the nearby state of Baden-Württemberg, a train derailed after hitting several uprooted trees on the tracks. The conductor was badly injured when a tree bored into the driving compartment, and 75 passengers were evacuated, police reported. A farm near Amtzell caught fire due to lightning, burning 10 cows in a barn to death and causing some €200,000 in damages.
In Konstanz near the Bodensee police reported that the city was covered with at least 10 centimetres of hail for a time. Wind gusts as high as 113 kilometres per hour were also recorded. Train traffic to the city had to be blocked to clean up felled trees and damaged power lines. Authorities estimated several million euros in hail and wind damage to roofs, windows and vehicles. “It looks like a bomb went off here,” a police spokesperson said.
Authorities also closed roads in Esslingen due to falling trees and the several flights from the Stuttgart airport were delayed after the runway closed due to lightning in the early evening.
In the north, on the Weser River near Bremerhaven, police reported that strong winds pushed a Norwegian freighter into three other boats while it was in the docks. In a separate incident a Lebanese ship sustained damage and lost a container overboard. In Braunschweig, police received more than 100 calls for emergency assistance when trees were uprooted, blocking roads and doors to people’s homes. A spokesperson for the fire department said no one there was injured.
As the nasty weather moved south, parts of Austria were also walloped with thunder storms, heavy rain and strong winds throughout Tuesday night. More than 2,700 lightning strikes were recorded in the states of Salzburg and Upper Austria. In Switzerland, a tree landed on a 31-year-old man while he was driving.

The Local Germany`news in English
 
Para quem é de Portugal (clima atlântico) estranha estas tempestades.
Mas aqui na Europa Central é bem conhecido o fenómeno das "monções" europeias, que entre Abril e Agosto fazem cair poderosas tempestades no centro da Europa. Embora creio que são muito mais fracas que as que ocorrem nos EUA.

Sempre que viajei na Europa nos últimos anos nesta alturas presenciei estas poderosas tempestades (na França, Alemanha, Holanda, Itália) e agora, vivendo na Áustria, dá-me oportunidade de ver estas com frequência. Não é nada de fora do normal!

Estas formam-se devido ao calor do verão do clima continental, e à mistura do ar quente do Mediterrâneo e do ar frio do Atlântico norte!
 
Previsão do Estofex para Hoje dia 2 de Junho:




A level 2 was issued for Serbia, N Bulgaria and S Romania mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado.

A level 1 was issued for the Baltic countries, W Belarus and part of Russia mainly for locally excessive precipitation and an isolated landspout.

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure at surface level is present over the eastern half of Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Upper (or mid level) shortwave troughs provide deep lifting and destabilization over NE Spain, S Scandinavia, Italy through Moldova (along the east flank of the major upper trough) and around the dissipating cold pool tracking from Poland northeastward over a stationary Baltic/Russian warm front.

DISCUSSION

...Serbia, N Bulgaria and S Romania...

Moderate instability, shear and strong lift combine today in this region. GFS predicts MLCAPE>1000 J/kg and ICAPE>2 MJ/m² in the left exit region of a 40 m/s jet. The situation resembles that of 2008/04/22 rather well. While DLS is 15-20 m/s in the most unstable area, 0-3 km SREH predicted by GFS and WRF models ranges between 150 and 400 m²/s², and so supercells are likely, with a chance of (very) large hail and severe gusts. 0-1 km LLS is rather good and increases during the evening, and together with the SREH and LCL heights below 1000m the chance of one or more tornadoes is present. Initial cellular storms can coagulate into one or two MCSses, which in delta-theta-e >15K environment and favorable wind profiles for forward propagation can cause damaging winds.

...Baltic area...

Storms are predicted to develop along a stationary boundary, in weak flow, with LCL heights below 1200m. Slow storm propagation, weak cold pools and continuous presence of upper lifting in GFS suggests high local precipitation sums are possible which could lead to flash floods. In addition, if we assume GFS low-level CAPE (0-3 km) in the weak flow, spout type tornadoes/funnels are not ruled out, in particular where vertical vorticity preexists along the convergence zone.
 
Previsão do Estofex para Hoje dia 3 de Junho:



A level 2 was issued for Ukraine and Western Russia mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

At midlevels, a deep trough with center over Scandinavia will stretch into the Eastern part of Mediterranean, remaining quasi-stationary and deepening slightly. Strong flow is observed around the trough with isolated spots of 30 m/s wind speed. To the west a narrow ridge has established over the Eastern Atlantic. Also at upper levels, the trough is very well developed and a jet surrounds its periphery. At the surface a low pressure system with center over Baltic states / W Russia is forecast to deepen, reaching less than 992 hPa by the end of forecast period. Large trough will extend to south, with its axis copying approximately the location of the cold front, which will slowly translate eastwards. A well defined warm front will stretch from the center of the low to the east with and shift northwards during the day. Prominent WAA regime will dominate the warm sector of this cyclone. To the west a cold airmass will invade Central Europe in the wake of the low and a narrow ridge of high pressure will stagnate over Eastern Atlantic.

DISCUSSION

...Central Ukraine through Smolensk-Moscow Upland...

Ahead of the progressing cold front, a belt of moderate instability will develop as the warm and humid airmass with steep lapse rates at mid-levels is advected towards the north. Especially in the southern part of Level 2, MLCAPE values will likely exceed 1000 J/kg. With strong mid-level flow aloft, DLS values should reach more than 20 m/s by 15Z, locally even over 25 m/s. Shear in the lowest 3 km will be quite strong as well, with large swath of values over 15 m/s and by 18Z, due to the strenghtening low level flow, even over 20 m/s. Moreover, backing of the winds ahead of the trough will lead to the increased SREH values, which might exceed 250 J/kg in 0-3 km layer.


Environment seems to be very supportive of well organized convection, with expected storm modes being both multi and supercells. Due to the fact, that flow will be almost parallel to the front and wind shear confined to the lower levels (i.e. weak mid-level storm relative winds), we expect that storms will quickly cluster and isolated storms (possibly supercells) will form one or more MCS, tracking northwards.

Initiation of convection will be easily achieved, as the outflow boundaries from previous convection will probably play a role in the storm formation. At the same time, frontal uplift will combine with the passage of two troughs across the region. With the first isolated storm development, supercells being possible, large hail will be the main threat. Towards the evening, as the low level flow strenghtens, we expect the storms to cluster and in form of MCS track to the north. Bowing segments might develop and considerable chance of damaging wind gusts will be present in such case (supported by the strong shear in the lower levels and enhanced Delta Theta-E values). Strong low -level shear (locally over 15 m/s) and its overlap with moderate instability, enhanced values of SREH 0-1 km, low LCL values point to the threat of tornadoes and even a strong tornado can not be ruled out. Due to the combination of these threats, Level 2 is warranted for this region.


...Moscow area, east-northeastward to the Northern Hills...

To the north, close to the warm front, the release of instability should not be that prominent, but still, MLCAPE values of 500 J/kg should be present. ECMWF is more optimistic than GFS in this case. Strong wind shear will be present, especially at the lower levels with the lowest 3 km shear having more than 20 m/s. At the same time, sharp turning of winds with height (models simulate easterly surface winds, which will turn to southerly direction at 850 hPa level) are expected and therefore, also high SREH values, locally more than 400 J/kg.

Storms that will form in this region will have a high potential to become well organized, including supercells, but probably the storms will quickly cluster towards the evening hours with MCS forming around the frontal region. Large hail might occur with supercells, although this threat will be of less importance than severe wind gusts, which can become widespread in case that bowing segments manage to develop. Furthermore, a belt of very strong LLS and high SREH values will lie close to the warm front. Therefore, a tornado threat will exist, as storms will probably track from the south (where the unstable airmass will be placed) to this region, including the slight chance of a strong tornado.

Weather developments will be closely monitored for a possible update during the day.
 
a imagem de satélite, de há hora e meia.

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Reparem na instabilidade que se vê na zona dos Balcãs e escandinávia/rússia!!!
 
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