Seguimento Meteorológico Livre - 2024

-> https://phys.org/news/2024-03-marine-disrupt-ocean-food-web.html

Ainda quentinho.

noaa-crw_mhw_v1.0.1_category_west_current.png
 
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-> https://phys.org/news/2024-03-meteorology-weak-polar-vortex-weather.html

In a study published in Communications Earth & Environment, LMU meteorologists highlight an additional aspect of stratospheric influence on long-range weather forecasts: Weak polar vortex states, such as the one currently prevailing, are typically followed by reduced uncertainty of 3-5 week forecasts over Northern Europe.

The authors found that ensembles of forecasts show a reduced range of possible weather conditions by about 25%. Such ensembles are made up of a large number of individual forecasts, which typically diverge at longer forecasting periods. After weak polar vortex events, there is less spread among these forecasts over Northern Europe, making the weather more predictable.
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In February 2024, CAMS launched its updated Aerosol Alerts Service, which can send alerts up to three days in advance when the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere for a particular region matches one of the three levels of alert – high, very high, and extreme. Users can register for free and customise their settings, to receive an email alerting them of any episode of increased aerosol optical depth or surface particulate matter concentration in the region of interest they define.

The free-to-use Aerosol Alerts service is based on CAMS aerosol forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System. The alerts are computed based on an evaluation of each forecast, analysing anomalies based on the typical conditions for each location and triggering alarms when certain thresholds are exceeded.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1316 UTC 16/03/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Megan
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
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-> http://satview.bom.gov.au/

55 nós (JTWC; vento médio 1 min). TT intensa.

Ciclone pouco intenso mas quase estacionário + água precipitável colossal...

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... >360 mms em ~15h -> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60801/IDD60801.94153.shtml
 
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Parece que haverá uma visita das poeiras :disgust:

20240317095319-8070ae7be629c56d39386644e41f26ca00f2d846.png
 
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jamestorm disse:
agora só oiço: "este ano choveu tanto, não se podem queixar de falta de água" As pessoas realmente perderam a noção do que é chover muito. nem sequer vai ser um ano na média, possivelmente. Enfim....
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Depende da localização da pessoa que diz isso.
Infelizmente a distribuição da chuva pelo país não é a ideal. Eu, como estou em Aveiro, digo que o resto do mês com pouca ou nenhuma chuva não seria mau.
 
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