Dan
Moderação
... em rodapé li que segundo o IM é chuva que caio é normal para a época mas para o IM quando é que algo será anormal ...
Por aqui tem chovido algo considerável, infelizmente não tenho valores que possa fornecer, neste momento 17,7C.
Segiundo o Estofex, a situação tende a agravar-se para amanhã...
DISCUSSION
...Portugal and SW Spain...
Broad upper-level trough will continue to stall between the Azores and Portugal.... Same procedure at lower levels with an SW-NE elongated LL depression west of Portugal....
An interesting note is that GFS and UKMET both see a shallow warm core evolution with this system, which would support an increase in convection around the center, but latest IR images and model outputs do not look excessively supportive for any significant ( possible subtropical )development.
Main concern for scattered TSTM activity continues to be along the belt of rich subtropical moisture, stretching all the way up to Portugal and SW Spain.... 12Z sounding of Lisboa ( 02.11.) already showed nice veering at low levels and some slight cooling during the next 12 hours at the mid-levels should support slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates and hence more robust instability values.
A slightly enhanced tornado risk exists mainly in the level-1 area due to low LCLs and some veering, but main threat should be an excessive rain risk due to very high PWAT values and slow storm motion.
Boas Pessoal!
E o Estofex
excelente análise
"Portugal and SW Spain...
Broad upper-level trough will continue to stall between the Azores and Portugal.... Same procedure at lower levels with an SW-NE elongated LL depression west of Portugal....
An interesting note is that GFS and UKMET both see a shallow warm core evolution with this system, which would support an increase in convection around the center, but latest IR images and model outputs do not look excessively supportive for any significant ( possible subtropical )development.
Main concern for scattered TSTM activity continues to be along the belt of rich subtropical moisture, stretching all the way up to Portugal and SW Spain.... 12Z sounding of Lisboa ( 02.11.) already showed nice veering at low levels and some slight cooling during the next 12 hours at the mid-levels should support slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates and hence more robust instability values.
A slightly enhanced tornado risk exists mainly in the level-1 area due to low LCLs and some veering, but main threat should be an excessive rain risk due to very high PWAT values and slow storm motion. "
A imagem de satélite vê-se o poptencial junto ao Litoral a Norte do Tejo para hoje ao fim da tarde, a ver vamos pq até agora não choveu ainda nada
http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bi...nt=36&intervall=30&refresh=10&playmode=Endlos
Curioso.... Pelos textos deles, os tipos do Estofex só têm acesso à informação disponibilizada na Net e no entanto estão a anos-luz em eficácia nas previsões em relação ao IM
É um site construido numa ordem de voluntariado, que por acaso tem excelentes análises, são dissidentes
Aveiro e o Porto hoje ao fim da tarde serão afectados