Furacão BERYL (Atlântico 2024 #AL02)

Beryl fez landfall em princípio a norte de Tulum, devido a mais uma pequena viragem de rumo pouco antes, desta vez para a direita. O olho já não estava distinto nas imagens de satélite, e mesmo o voo de reconhecimento não encontrou uma estrutura que se pudesse chamar parede do olho.

Mas no radar de Cancún ainda apareciam, já em terra, ecos que denunciavam o centro do furacão:
RadarCancún_20240705-1137utc.webp


"
000
WTNT42 KNHC 050850
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Beryl is nearing landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.
After unexpectedly intensifying some last night against continued
shear, Beryl has plateaued or filled a bit. The last few fixes from
the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission indicated the pressure
rose 9 mb while the peak 700-mb wind in the final NE leg out of
Beryl were down to 102 kt with lower SFMR values. In addition, the
aircraft was no longer reporting an eyewall and the presentation of
Beryl's inner core from radar out of Cancun, Mexico has become more
degraded. On satellite, the hurricane has also become more
amorphous, with a lack of an eye signature on infrared imagery, and
evidence of southerly shear continuing to undercut its outflow. The
initial intensity this advisory was adjusted to 95 kt,
which is
still higher than the satellite intensity estimates, out of respect
of the earlier recon data.

The hurricane appears to now be moving more west-northwestward this
morning, estimated at 285/13 kt
. Beryl should maintain this
west-northwest heading as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today and
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by tonight. "

O aspecto era este às 9:35 utc, pouco antes do que se pode considerar landfall:

Beryl_IR_20240705-0935utc.webp


"
000
WTNT42 KNHC 051451
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z.
The landfall intensity
is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central
pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The
cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the
initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. "

Atravessa a península de Yucatan nesta altura, com aspecto bastante diminuído mas ainda furacão (Cat.1).
Beryl-IR_0705-1515.gif
 
Mesmo depois de entrar no Golfo do México, a previsão do NHC não o intensifica mais do que está agora, passando até por um período apenas como tempestade tropical.
Aguardemos, porque outras previsões anteriores, do já longo percurso de Beryl, também eram conservadoras e foram ultrapassadas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.7N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 21.4N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.6N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.6N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

000
WTNT42 KNHC 051451
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity
is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central
pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The
cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the
initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. For the next 24 h or so,
Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the
western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern
United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely
as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a
combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the
central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the
center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a
northward motion through the break appears likely. While the track
guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty
based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A
stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system
would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the
right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the
forecast track could be necessary later today.

Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected
to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After that,
it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over
the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest.
Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the
new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h
and continue until landfall. One important note is that the GFS
and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after
48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence.
Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently
forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than
forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of
northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue
over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning areas
today. Residents there should shelter in place until these
life-threatening conditions subside.

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in
portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast
late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast. Storm Surge, Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the
advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the
water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.7N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 21.4N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.6N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.6N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Depois de uma rápida corrida atravessando o Golfo como tempestade tropical, Beryl recuperará a categoria de furacão no Domingo, cerca de 19 horas antes do previsto landfall no Texas, menos de uma centena de quilómetros a norte da fronteira com o México. Intensidade dos ventos máximos estará nos 75 nós na altura de entrada em terra.

Beryl_adv28.png
 
Última edição:
Esta estação WU Chemuyil - ITULUM9, perto a norte de Tulum, identifica perfeitamente o momento da entrada em terra, quer no gráfico da pressão quer na intensidade do vento.
Infelizmente sem registo pluviométrico.
A direcção do vento mostra que o centro do furacão entrou ligeiramente a sul desta localidade, inicialmente do quadrante Noroeste e depois virando rapidamente para sul passando pelos quadrantes Norte e Leste. Máximo de vento quando ainda em NO, depois diminuição durante a viragem para N e E e reintensificação já em Sul, assinatura clara da passagem do centro/olho.

WU Tulum_20240705_graf.png


Rajada de 136,8 Km/h cerca das 7h00 da manhã hora local (12h utc); vento máximo sustentado 107,8 Km/h às 6h45.
As rajadas depois da entrada em terra mantiveram-se acima dos 100 Km/h até às 8h15.
 

Anexos

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Alguns registos da passagem do furacão Beryl pela Playa del Carmen:

1720196630823.webp


1720196693306.webp


1720196710835.webp


1720196869956.webp


Fonte:

 
Registos pluviométricos muito variáveis em algumas estações ao longo da costa desde Cancún até Chemuyil.
Alguns pluviómetros que não funcionaram, mas há registos de 103,4 mm em Puerto Morelos; 101,4 mm e 86,1 em Cancún sul, BenitoJuarez e Paseo del Mar respectivamente; 63,8 mm em Playa del Carmen.
 

Anexos

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Última edição:
Haverá surpresas pela aparente inflexão mais pronunciada para a direita, quase em rumo noroeste?
Provavelmente não é uma surpresa, mas a última previsão é realmente de uma trajectória mais para a direita do anterior rumo, ou seja aquilo que o NHC chama de desvio para Leste e aparentemente o ECMWF está à frente na detecção desta variação.

732
WTNT42 KNHC 052045
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except
for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data
from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become
less organized. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat
uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the
inner core.

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope.
The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track
, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.


Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. After that, it could take
12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of
Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during
this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly
shear. Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity
guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start
around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit
generous. However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening. The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional
watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.

4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.2N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 23.2N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 26.5N 96.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 27.8N 97.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...AT COAST
96H 09/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 32.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Convecção periférica bem longe para norte do centro de Beryl pode facilmente em imagens estáticas ser tomada como a posição central da própria tempestade, mas na verdade o centro de Beryl está a sul, a sair nesta altura da penínsyla de Yucatan pela costa norte, num rumo já bastante próximo de noroeste.

Beryl-IR_0706-0005.gif


A recente previsão já quase exclui o território mexicano do segundo landfall, desviando a entrada em terra mais provável bastante para norte, cordão litoral de Corpus Christi, cerca das 15h/16h utc de 2ªfeira dia 8 (10h/11h AM CDT). Esta mais longa permanência de Beryl sobre as quentes águas costeiras do Texas (com temperaturas superficiais em anomalia positiva importante) dará mais tempo ao renovado furacão para intensificação, daí a previsão ter subido para os 80 nós já em terra.

Beryl_adv29A.png
 
A história notável de Beryl parece acabar hoje, reduzido a uma tempestade tropical banal e à possibilidade de ainda chegar a furacão na altura de landfall na costa do Texas, não passando da categoria 1.

Beryl_adv32_track.webp


No entanto... a convecção está a reagir às águas quentes do golfo, à diminuição do shear e ao abrandamento do movimento para WNW/NW.

Beryl-IR_0706-1515.gif
 

Anexos

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Pouco a dizer sobre Beryl, neste momento uma vulgar TT, algo elusiva quanto à sua trajectória que teima em derivar sempre para a direita das previsões, e neste último aviso não é excepção: já passou mesmo para Leste de Bay City. Quão longe já vai o cone de incerteza da fronteira mexicana. E os avisos já chegam a Galveston.

"000
WTNT32 KNHC 072345
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus
Christi Bay, has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been
discontinued. "

Beryl_adv37A_zoom.png


Beryl-IR_20240708-0045.gif
 
Última edição:
É incrível que os modelos/NHC não tenham sistematicamente visto/previsto a constante deriva da trajectória de Beryl para a direita/Leste.
Neste momento até Galveston tem aviso de furacão! É preciso ver a sequência completa das sucessivas previsões para compreender que há certamente algo que os modelos não vêem ou não têm dados e/ou o NHC não sabe interpretar. Há um factor a escapar, qual?
Beryl_adv38_zoom.png


Beryl-IR_20240708-0435.gif



Hurricane Warning is in
effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through
Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf
Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is
also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


000
WTNT62 KNHC 080358
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...BERYL IS AGAIN A HURRICANE...

Data from the National Weather Service Doppler radar near Houston,
Texas, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Beryl is
upgraded to a hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected
before landfall on the Texas coast.

NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also
reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
Última edição:
Beryl em terra a atingir Houston.

Beryl_adv40_zoom.webp


"000
WTNT62 KNHC 081359
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA...
...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of
58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).


A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently
measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake "

Beryl-IR_20240708-1435.gif


"
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

The strengthening forecast by the regional hurricane models began
in earnest just after the last advisory was issued. Doppler radar
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Beryl regained hurricane strength near 04Z, and intensification
continued until the just-occurred landfall of the 28 n mi wide eye
on the Texas coast. The landfall central pressure was near 979 mb,
and the maximum winds were near 70 kt. "
Beryl_adv39_zoom.webp
 
Última edição: