psm
Nimbostratus
Cuba comprou 2 ciclones por 1 trajecto igual não tem piada mas quem diria que ele iria fazer o mesmo trajecto do Gustav, ao passar perto do mesmo sitio, é preciso ter azar.
Agora no Golfo do México há algumas horas, o Ike parece querer desafiar aquela crista que os modelos dizem que o vai desviar para Oeste... Na animação do NHC parece estar a seguir mais para NW do que para WNW, embora o último aviso (há minutos) não faça referência a nenhuma alteração significativa das anteriores previsões...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 101755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Parece que a trajectória do Ike tem sido mais para NW do que inicialmente se previa.
THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON
AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR
MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF
RUN...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE
LATEST GFDL RUN....WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT. IN THIS CASE IT IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.
Mas por isso é que o NHC repete constantemente que as pessoas se tem que concentrar no cone e não na linha, o próprio nome da previsão do NHC é "cone de x dias" e não "linha de x dias".
Mandatory Evacuation Called for Jefferson and Orange County
Date: September 11, 2008 07:00 Hours
Elected Officials in Jefferson and Orange County have called for a mandatory evacuation effective at 6:00 am today. Elected Officials in Hardin County have not called for an evacuation at this time. Officials learned during the night that the State of Texas will be sending resources to our region today to assist in the evacuation process. The track of Hurricane Ike has been uncertain but has been moving slightly north along the coast. Due to this movement and the availability of resources, the decision was made to call for the evacuation.
Beaumont Transit buses will not be running regular routes today. They will only be operating in support of the evacuation effort. Buses should should start running at 8:00 AM today. Beaumont residents needing assistance in transportation for evacuation should begin moving to the assembly sites.
Beaumont assembly sites are;
1. Dunbar Elementary - 825 Jackson
2. French Elementary - 3525 Cleveland
3. Martin Luther King Middle School - 1400 Ave A
4. Ozen High School-3443 Fannett Rd
5. Smith Middle Sdchool-4415 Concord
6. South Park Middle School-4500 Highland Ave
The Main Assembly Point is Westbrook High School at 8750 Phelan Blvd. If someone has a car and can get to Westbrook HS, they can be evacuated by bus.
DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS
MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65
KT. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT
QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)