Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2024)

[Revenge]

 

[StormRic]

PTC-9 ('Helene') já tem o primeiro aviso:

"
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
[...]
KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane
when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and
northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to
specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in
these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart "

Primeira ameaça é para a ponta Oeste de Cuba, acumulado de 300 mm para o período de hoje até Sábado 28 12utc.

 

[Aurélio Carvalho]

Para um possível furacão vai andar bem bem rápido!!

 

[StormRic]

Continua a previsão de Helene se intensificar até Cat.3, 'major hurricane'.
Mais um ataque às costas do Golfo da Florida.

Entre as várias ameaças deste futuro furacão, a precipitação prevista bem para o interior do continente é uma das mais significativas:

105 nós antes do landfall amanhã à noite (movimento muito rápido pode diminuir a destruição):

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 20.7N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.9N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/1800Z 35.9N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

[StormRic]

Entretanto, AL99 tem rota delineada a caminho dos Açores, mas a probabilidade de adquirir características tropicais ou sub-tropicais é fraca, apenas 20%. A seguir...

 

[Revenge]

Tracking do Helene:

HURRICANE HELENE Tracking Console | Helene Spaghetti Models, Track Forecast Cone, Path, Wind Maps, etc — Hurricane Tracker

Get the latest updates on Hurricane Helene with comprehensive maps and charts, including cone forecasts, spaghetti models, radar, satellite imagery, pressure maps, wind shear maps, and more. Stay informed and track the storm’s progress in real-time with hurricanetracker.net. Essential for weather en

www.hurricanetracker.net

 

[Geopower]

"Hello from the eye of Hurricane #Helene!

View from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3D Orion #NOAA43 "Miss Piggy" from this morning's mission. "

Credit: Nick Underwood, NOAA

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/PDYJUdmP2j6URdu4/

 

[Afgdr]

Panorama atual na bacia do Atlântico: Furacão Helene e duas áreas de investigação designadas por AL98 e AL99.

Invest 98L: Alta probabilidade de formação de tempestade tropical em 2 (70%) e 7 dias (80%).

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized over
the past 24 hours in association with a broad low pressure system
along a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

01h15 UTC

Invest 99L: Aumentado para 40% o seu potencial ciclónico nos próximos 2/7 dias.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near the center
of a gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions could support the low developing some subtropical or
tropical characteristics over the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm could form late this week or this
weekend as the system moves generally east-northeastward, remaining
over the central subtropical Atlantic. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

01h15 UTC

 

[Afgdr]

Entretanto, o NHC atualizou o seu comunicado relativamente ao AL99. Tem, neste momento, elevada probabilidade (80%) de se tornar tempestade tropical (TT) nos próximos 2/7 dias.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized with a gale-force area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Recently-received satellite wind data has revealed that the low is no longer attached to a frontal boundary and is producing a concentrated area of tropical-storm force winds near the center. If these trends continue, this system is likely to become a tropical storm shortly.
The system should continue moving generally east-northeastward, remaining over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Animação de imagens do canal visível:

Animação de imagens do canal infra-vermelhos:

Não deverá representar perigo direto para os Açores, passando a N do arquipélago.

A maioria dos modelos aponta para que se mantenha uns dias na categoria de TT.

 

[Afgdr]

AL99 a desenvolver uma estrutura semelhante a um olho pelas 02h05 UTC:

Deverá ser classificada como Tempestade Tropical Isaac nas próximas horas pelo NHC.

 

[Afgdr]

Formou-se a TT Isaac.

Tópico de seguimento: https://www.meteopt.com/forum/topico/tempestade-tropical-isaac-atlantico-2024-al10.11239/

 

[Afgdr]

Criei um tópico de seguimento do Furacão Helene para um seguimento mais organizado e encadeado: https://www.meteopt.com/forum/topico/furacao-helene-atlantico-2024-al09.11240/

Peço pf que algum administador mova os posts anteriores respeitantes ao acompanhamento da Helene para o tópico em causa.

 

[Afgdr]

Situação atual no Atlântico:

1) Furacão Helene (cat 4) no pós-landfall na Flórida - seguimento em tópico dedicado

2) TT Isaac em intensificação e em vias de se tornar furacão (cat 1) - seguimento em tópico dedicado

3) Invest 98L com elevado potencial ciclónico (90%) em 2/7 dias

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about one thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. Recent satellite imagery
suggests the system does not yet have a well-defined surface
circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form tonight or on Friday while the disturbance moves
generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The
system is then forecast to slow down and turn north-northwestward
late Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

03h55 UTC

4) Futuro sistema de baixas pressões nas Caraíbas Orientais com baixo potencial ciclónico em 2 (0%) e 7 dias (20%)

2. Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea
by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for slow development thereafter, while the system
moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

 

[StormRic]

Até às 12h de hoje ainda se mantinha esta situação, logo a seguir Joyce "nasceu":

Na esteira de Joyce mais uma perturbação tem fraca probabilidade atribuída de se converter em CT, nos próximos 7 dias. E uma nova que poderá seguir o rasto de Helene e entrar no Golfo, afectando a península de Iucatão. Nada mal, para uma temporada que começava a ser dada como moribunda.

 

[StormRic]

Situação actual (18z)