"000
WTNT45 KNHC 170857
TCDAT5
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of
Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda at about 430 AM
AST, with the National Museum of Bermuda recently reporting light
winds and a
central pressure of 972 mb. The system overall has
become less organized as
drier air has infiltrated much of the
circulation's southern semicircle. Earlier aircraft reconnaissance
data supported 75-80 kt as an initial intensity, and with the
degradation in the satellite imagery,
75 kt is chosen as the current
intensity (and operational landfall intensity). The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters should be out again in a few hours to sample the
cyclone.
While the current moderate shear is forecast to weaken today,
it
will take some time for the vortex to recover from the dry air as
it moves across warm waters north of Bermuda. Thus little change in
intensity is anticipated in the short term, and re-strengthening
could begin tomorrow. This should be a fairly short-lived window,
however, since Ernesto will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf
Stream on Monday while moving into a strong wind shear environment.
Therefore, steady weakening is forecast for the work week, and
Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition near or
just east of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, a bit lower in the short-term to
account for recent guidance. "
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Passagem do olho sobre o aeroporto pouco antes das 10utc, pressão mínima 973hPa, vento mínimo 13 Km/h, rotação do vento de SE passando por Sul para Oeste e fixando-se.
A entrada de ar seco na circulação de Ernesto destruiu grande parte da convecção profunda, ajudado pelo
shear.
