Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2024)

Debby a descarregar precipitação, também com bandas periféricas que afectam ainda a sul desde a zona de Cape Coral e a nordeste chegando à fronteira interestadual das Carolinas.

Radar-SE_20240805-18h34utc.png


Os acumulados nas últimas 12 horas superiores a 100mm (alguns entre os 150 e os 200m) já chegam à Georgia e Jacksonville.

Prec12h+100mm-Fl-Norte_20240805-18h48utc.png
 
850
WTNT44 KNHC 052048
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Debby continues to move over land, and based on surface synoptic
and radar observations the center is estimated to be near the
Florida/Georgia border. Assuming a continued weakening since
landfall, the intensity estimate has been reduced to 45 kt, which is
reasonably consistent with the latest WSR-88D radar velocities
aloft.

Debby continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical high,
and the forward motion has slowed to about 035/6 kt. The cyclone
is expected to turn eastward, while moving quite slowly, in a
region of weak steering currents for the next couple of days. This
motion should bring the center of the system back over water by
late Tuesday. In around 72 hours, a mid-level ridge to the east
of Debby is forecast to build somewhat, and as a result, the center
should move inland over South Carolina and turn northward and
northeastward over the eastern U.S. for the remainder of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one and is in good agreement with the corrected model consensus,
HCCA, guidance.

The tropical cyclone should continue to weaken while it moves over
land for the next day or so. By late Tuesday, assuming the center
of the system moves back over water, some re-intensification is
forecast. The NHC forecast continues to show only modest
restrengthening due to the uncertainties, although this may be
conservative.

Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large amounts
of rainfall over the Southeastern U.S. is anticipated.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of
these areas. Residents in the Storm Surge watch and warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 30.5N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1800Z 31.7N 81.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0600Z 32.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1800Z 33.2N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 35.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

"
Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large amounts
of rainfall over the Southeastern U.S.
is anticipated."

213329WPCQPF_sm.gif


RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 150 to 300 mm, with maximum amounts of 450 mm, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 250 a 500 mm of rainfall, with local amounts to 750 mm, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

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Três dias de precipitação excessiva:
 

Anexos

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Depois de passar na zona mais quente das águas do Golfo, Debby vai agora deambular pela costa Leste, com uma primeira saída de terra e recolher humidade da corrente do golfo ao largo das costas dos estados da Georgia e Carolina do Sul. A previsão indica que não se ficará por aí, voltando a terra para "despejar" e com trajectória que faz suspeitar de nova saída para o oceano bem mais a norte, provavelmente no estado de Filadélfia:

Debby_Adv14.png
 

O número de estações com acumulados totais atribuídos a Debby até à data/hora presente é superior ao que é mostrado no mapa, por limitações da visualização.
O valor de selecção foi de 12 polegadas (>300mm). Repare-se como há numerosas estações que registaram acumulados superiores a 500mm.

PrecDebby+300mm_72h-_20240806-18h40utc.png


A área onde existem acumulados >500mm em mais detalhe (e maior número de estações selecionadas):
PrecDebby-FL-N+300mm_72h-_20240806-18h49utc.png


A faixa abrangida por aqueles valores situou-se no sector sueste de Debby durante o trajecto para nordeste e depois ENE, os totais acumulando ainda com a precipitação registada nas bandas laterais durante o percurso do centro ao largo da costa oeste da Florida.
 
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