Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2010)

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Mais um distúrbio tropical, nas Caraíbas, Invest 95L. Para já desorganizado.

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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Clique para expandir...
 
Quase 100% de probabilidade de se formar uma tempestade tropical no mar das caraíbas durante as próximas 48 horas.

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FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Mais um invest a desenvolver-se na mesma região de onde há dias se formou a Paula.

A probabilidade de evoluir para tempestade tropical nas próximas 48h é de 70%.

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FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.
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Mais uma onda tropical a sair do continente africano, com 30% de probabilidades de chegar a tempestade tropical nas próximas 48 horas.

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1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
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Três "invest" no Atlântico...

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
 
Durante o dia de ontem, o invest #92, desenvolveu-se bastante, sendo que esta madrugada o NHC classificou-o como uma tempestade tropical e atribuiu-lhe o nome de SHARY.

Esse sistema está a ser acompanhado no seguinte tópico:
-> Tempestade Tropical SHARY (Atlântico 2010 #AL20)


Quanto aos outros dois, o que se localiza a norte da Guiana e Suriname, tem-se desenvolvido bastante nas últimas horas, a apresenta agora uma probabilidade de 80% de vir a ser classificada como uma tempestade tropical.

Quanto ao outro, encontra-se numa situação mais adversa e sem grandes probabilidades de se poder vir a organizar.

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800 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
Clique para expandir...
 
Entretanto o invest #91 também deu origem a uma tempestade tropical, a TOMAS, 21ª depressão tropical da temporada no Atlântico e 19º sistema a receber nome.

Esse sistema está a ser acompanhado no seguinte tópico:
-> Tempestade Tropical TOMAS (Atlântico 2010 #AL21)

Pela imagem que publicaste já se antevia este desenvolvimento e parece que o TOMAS será um ciclone grande (em extensão geográfica e em intensidade) - o NHC prevê que se torne um grande furacão (cat.SS 3 ou superior) embora as projecções apenas introduzam esse cenário no final do intervalo de confiança (após as 96h). Note-se que a verificarem-se estas projecções e o trajecto previsto, será um grande furacão a afectar o mar das Caraíbas e o Golfo do México.

A página da wikipedia para a temporada de 2010 no Atlântico tem sido uma fonte de informação estatística interessante e é actualizada pelo menos tão frequentemente quanto as saídas dos avisos do NHC, até me pergunto se não será mantida pelas mesmas pessoas... Neste momento diz o seguinte:

This article is actively undergoing a major edit for a short while. To help avoid edit conflicts, please do not edit this page while this message is displayed.
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Antevê-se a chegada de dados comparativos interessantes, uma vez que a época em curso é já uma das mais intensas desde que há registos. Para já, esta temporada é, a par da temporada de 1995, a terceira de sempre com o maior número de tempestades tropicais.
 
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