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Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2024)
- Thread starter StormRic
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Última edição:
Acumulados atingem cerca de 130 a 140mm na costa sudoeste, até Tampa.
Estações cujo acumulado excede os 60mm/6h (o que seria o critério de aviso vermelho aqui para Portugal).
A menos de 18 horas do previsto landfall.
Estações cujo acumulado excede os 60mm/6h (o que seria o critério de aviso vermelho aqui para Portugal).
A menos de 18 horas do previsto landfall.
Última edição:
Inundações 
https://water.noaa.gov/
https://water.noaa.gov/
Inundações
Seria muito útil o nosso IPMA/Prociv chegar a este nível, em divulgação pública.
A cerca de 18 horas (ou menos) do landfall, Debby ainda não fechou a circulação em torno do centro:
Algum ar seco no quadrante sudoeste da circulação de Debby tem ajudado a impedir que se forme um centro fechado, um olho.
Isto pode atrasar um pouco a intensificação e a última previsão já não mostra os 80 nós a serem atingidos.
Mesmo assim, 75 nós (> 135 Km/h) ao entrar em terra.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 27.7N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 29.1N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 31.3N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1800Z 31.7N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1800Z 31.9N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1800Z 32.6N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
Debby está a ficar sem tempo para cumprir a previsão.
Na imagem de radar de há minutos o centro é mesmo a característica menos evidente, sobressaindo sim a longa linha de instabilidade que se prolonga e continua a ser gerada desde Cuba. É esta linha que tem produzindo a forte precipitação pela Florida, além de uma mais agressiva linha no lado norte da tempestade. Mais perto do centro observam-se três linhas que tentam fechar a circunferência mas a convecção aí tem pouca profundidade.
O que poderá vir a ser o olho está agora a esboçar-se e parece ter uma circulação já fechada mas com pouca actividade convectiva.
Isto pode atrasar um pouco a intensificação e a última previsão já não mostra os 80 nós a serem atingidos.
Mesmo assim, 75 nós (> 135 Km/h) ao entrar em terra.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 27.7N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 29.1N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 31.3N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1800Z 31.7N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1800Z 31.9N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1800Z 32.6N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
Debby está a ficar sem tempo para cumprir a previsão.
Na imagem de radar de há minutos o centro é mesmo a característica menos evidente, sobressaindo sim a longa linha de instabilidade que se prolonga e continua a ser gerada desde Cuba. É esta linha que tem produzindo a forte precipitação pela Florida, além de uma mais agressiva linha no lado norte da tempestade. Mais perto do centro observam-se três linhas que tentam fechar a circunferência mas a convecção aí tem pouca profundidade.
O que poderá vir a ser o olho está agora a esboçar-se e parece ter uma circulação já fechada mas com pouca actividade convectiva.
Olho evidente no radar (mas não no satélite há 40 minutos), parede a formar-se:
Todo o sistema nebuloso movido por Debby é bem mais importante do que o próprio olho:
Embora os ventos máximos estejam na periferia do olho, a precipitação das diferentes bandas convectivas que se estendem até bem longe serão as protagonistas desta tempestade.
Embora os ventos máximos estejam na periferia do olho, a precipitação das diferentes bandas convectivas que se estendem até bem longe serão as protagonistas desta tempestade.
O olho continua não discernível em IR, mas o radar mostra-o bem:
Debby é furacão nesta altura e ainda poderá intensificar-se um pouco mais antes de landfall.
A previsão do NHC aponta ainda:
- manutenção da classificação de tempestade tropical ao longo do trajecto em terra após o landfall;
- uma permanência maior ao largo da costa dos estados da Georgia e Carolinas, permitindo assim alguma reintensificação antes de voltar a terra.
Acumulados nas últimas 24 horas superiores a 150mm, até agora só existem na zona abrangida por este mapa:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 050255
TCDAT4
Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024
NWS Doppler Radar imagery from both Tampa and Tallahassee along with
reports from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Debby's structure has continued to improve this
evening with a ragged eye becoming apparent. Both NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft have found strong flight-level winds
in the convective band located well to the east-northeast of the
center, with the Air Force plane measuring 700-mb flight-level
winds in the 75-77 kt range. Recent dropsonde data has shown that
the pressure has fallen to around 985 mb. Based on these data,
Debby is being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane at this time.
Although the inner core is still somewhat ragged, the storm's
structure has improved and additional strengthening appears likely
overnight and early Monday while Debby moves over waters of high
heat content in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a favorable
upper-level wind environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again
at the high end of the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected
while Debby moves inland over the southeastern United States. Some
restrengthening is forecast when Debby moves over the western
Atlantic, but there is still higher-than-normal uncertainty in this
portion of the forecast.
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Debby
should continue to move generally northward overnight and early
Monday through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a
mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center onshore along the coast of the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. After that time, the trough
is forecast to move eastward causing the steering currents to
weaken over the southeastern United States. This will result in a
significant slowdown of Debby's forward motion, and the model
spread increases significantly in the 72-120 h time period.
Regardless of Debby's exact forecast track during that time, the
slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall
across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing
likelihood of catastrophic flooding.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in
considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern
Florida through the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown late tonight and Monday morning. Residents in the Storm
Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local
officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning area along Florida's west coast, including
the Tampa Bay area.
4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued
for portions of these areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 28.6N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 30.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 31.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 31.6N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/1200Z 31.7N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 32.1N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 33.0N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 34.7N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
WTNT44 KNHC 050255
TCDAT4
Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024
NWS Doppler Radar imagery from both Tampa and Tallahassee along with
reports from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Debby's structure has continued to improve this
evening with a ragged eye becoming apparent. Both NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft have found strong flight-level winds
in the convective band located well to the east-northeast of the
center, with the Air Force plane measuring 700-mb flight-level
winds in the 75-77 kt range. Recent dropsonde data has shown that
the pressure has fallen to around 985 mb. Based on these data,
Debby is being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane at this time.
Although the inner core is still somewhat ragged, the storm's
structure has improved and additional strengthening appears likely
overnight and early Monday while Debby moves over waters of high
heat content in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a favorable
upper-level wind environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again
at the high end of the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected
while Debby moves inland over the southeastern United States. Some
restrengthening is forecast when Debby moves over the western
Atlantic, but there is still higher-than-normal uncertainty in this
portion of the forecast.
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Debby
should continue to move generally northward overnight and early
Monday through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a
mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center onshore along the coast of the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. After that time, the trough
is forecast to move eastward causing the steering currents to
weaken over the southeastern United States. This will result in a
significant slowdown of Debby's forward motion, and the model
spread increases significantly in the 72-120 h time period.
Regardless of Debby's exact forecast track during that time, the
slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall
across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing
likelihood of catastrophic flooding.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in
considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern
Florida through the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown late tonight and Monday morning. Residents in the Storm
Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local
officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning area along Florida's west coast, including
the Tampa Bay area.
4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued
for portions of these areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 28.6N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 30.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 31.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 31.6N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/1200Z 31.7N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 32.1N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 33.0N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 34.7N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
A previsão do NHC aponta ainda:
- manutenção da classificação de tempestade tropical ao longo do trajecto em terra após o landfall;
- uma permanência maior ao largo da costa dos estados da Georgia e Carolinas, permitindo assim alguma reintensificação antes de voltar a terra.
Acumulados nas últimas 24 horas superiores a 150mm, até agora só existem na zona abrangida por este mapa:
Anexos
Última edição:
Debby em terra desde aproximadamente as 11:00utc, intensidade dos ventos não chegou ao que estivera previsto em discussões anteriores, ficando-se pelos 70 nós.
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
The eyewall of Debby is moving onshore and landfall in the Florida
Big Bend is expected to occur within the next few hours. Doppler
radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the eye of the hurricane
has become a bit more circular and deep convection remains fairly
well organized over the eastern eyewall, and in bands east of the
center that have spread across portions of northern Florida. There
have been numerous reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds,
but the strongest so far is in Horseshoe Beach, where a weather
station recently recorded a sustained wind of 57 kt and a gust to
83 kt. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
maximum winds are likely near 70 kt, and Debby will likely maintain
that intensity or strengthen a little until it reaches the coast.
After landfall, Debby is expected to slow down and turn
northeastward as the steering currents collapse, taking the system
across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia later today through
Tuesday. Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast
U.S. coast late Tuesday and Wednesday before a ridge builds to the
north of the system, which should push it back inland over South
Carolina on Thursday. Although the details of the track forecast
are unknown, there is high confidence that Debby will move slowly
while near or over the southeastern U.S., which will likely result
in catastrophic flooding in some locations. The NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in line with the consensus aids.
Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and Debby
will likely become a tropical storm over northern Florida this
afternoon. If Debby does move back offshore of the southeast U.S.,
there could be a little strengthening before it moves inland once
again. Regardless of the system's strength, the main impact is
expected to be heavy rainfall as mentioned above. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one and near the HCCA
and IVCN aids.
NHC has begun issuing hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates, and they
will continue through landfall.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown through the morning. Residents in the Storm
Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local
officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for several more
hours farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning area along
Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area.
4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of these areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 29.5N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 31.3N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1800Z 31.8N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0600Z 31.9N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/0600Z 33.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 35.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
The eyewall of Debby is moving onshore and landfall in the Florida
Big Bend is expected to occur within the next few hours. Doppler
radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the eye of the hurricane
has become a bit more circular and deep convection remains fairly
well organized over the eastern eyewall, and in bands east of the
center that have spread across portions of northern Florida. There
have been numerous reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds,
but the strongest so far is in Horseshoe Beach, where a weather
station recently recorded a sustained wind of 57 kt and a gust to
83 kt. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
maximum winds are likely near 70 kt, and Debby will likely maintain
that intensity or strengthen a little until it reaches the coast.
After landfall, Debby is expected to slow down and turn
northeastward as the steering currents collapse, taking the system
across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia later today through
Tuesday. Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast
U.S. coast late Tuesday and Wednesday before a ridge builds to the
north of the system, which should push it back inland over South
Carolina on Thursday. Although the details of the track forecast
are unknown, there is high confidence that Debby will move slowly
while near or over the southeastern U.S., which will likely result
in catastrophic flooding in some locations. The NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in line with the consensus aids.
Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and Debby
will likely become a tropical storm over northern Florida this
afternoon. If Debby does move back offshore of the southeast U.S.,
there could be a little strengthening before it moves inland once
again. Regardless of the system's strength, the main impact is
expected to be heavy rainfall as mentioned above. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one and near the HCCA
and IVCN aids.
NHC has begun issuing hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates, and they
will continue through landfall.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown through the morning. Residents in the Storm
Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local
officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for several more
hours farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning area along
Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area.
4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of these areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 29.5N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 31.3N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1800Z 31.8N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0600Z 31.9N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/0600Z 33.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 35.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN
398
WTNT44 KNHC 051455
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually
weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the
cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path
of Debby.
Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.
Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.
Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa
Bay area, through this afternoon.
3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area.
4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
WTNT44 KNHC 051455
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually
weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the
cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path
of Debby.
Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.
Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.
Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa
Bay area, through this afternoon.
3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area.
4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Nesta altura já diminuiram os ventos abaixo da intensidade de furacão, Debby é tempestade tropical e precipitação com acumulados catastróficos continua prevista.
Voltou a previsão de acumulados nos próximos dias que podem superar os 500mm em zonas da costa da Carolina do Sul, estendendo-se os >300mm desde o limite norte da Florida até à Carolina do Norte. Previsão para 5 dias desde hoje às 12:00 utc até dia 10 12:00 utc.
Acumulados nas últimas 24 horas, com a zona de Tampa/St.Petersburg a apresentar os maiores valores e inundações em curso.
A área de landfall e no seguimento para o interior também a ver os acumulados a subirem rapidamente.
No geral, desde 150mm até mais de 250mm, algumas estações com valores até superiores mas de fiabilidade incerta por serem demasiado singulares.
Entretanto, o trilho deixado por Beryl parece ir ser percorrido novamente, ligeiramente mais a sul desta vez:
