Meninodasnuvens
Nimbostratus
Onde posso ver as imagens de satélite passadas? Gostava de fazer um filme daquela sequência de ciclones de 27 de fevereiro a 23 de março.
Eumetview
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Seguimento Meteorológico Livre - 2025
- Thread starter Spider
- Data de início
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O novo portal está no ar! Novos meteogramas, cartas, e mais. Mais informações neste tópico
Seguimento Meteorológico: Litoral Norte | Interior Norte e Centro | Litoral Centro | Sul | Açores e Madeira | Livre
Previsões: Curto e médio prazo: até 2 semanas | Longo prazo: mensal e sazonal (Regras e links úteis nos 1ºs posts)
Facebook | Avisos IPMA/Alertas ANEPC
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Bem em relação a este domingo o Baixo Alentejo deve apanhar apenas chuva fraca, a intensa ja fugiu para o distrito de Évora....
StormRic
Furacão
Frente fria no continente e a imponente depressão complexa nos Açores a tentar unificar o seu centro.
Muito mais visível é a nebulosidade associada à nova ciclogénese do que à velha depressão.
Para a visualização destas pictóricas imagens de massas de ar este é o link.
Muito mais visível é a nebulosidade associada à nova ciclogénese do que à velha depressão.
Para a visualização destas pictóricas imagens de massas de ar este é o link.
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Maria Papoila
Nimbostratus
Chuva brutal aqui no Marquês de de Pombal 
Meninodasnuvens
Nimbostratus
Bem Quinta-feira os parâmetros severidade estão assim: CAPE na ordem dos 1500/2000 J/KG, CIN entre -50 e -100 J/KG, LI entre -2 e 1, o windshear nos níveis baixos e altos encontra-se moderado, logo probabilidade de tempestades moderadas/fortes é alta, se alguém tiver outra análise agradeço a partilha ou correções.
Bem, isso são valores meramente indicativos que dependem bastante de modelo para modelo (e a forma como o calculam), particularmente no que ao CAPE diz respeito. Esses valores de CIN por exemplo, na teoria inibiriam quase na totalidade a possibilidade de convecção. É o que vai acontecer na 4a feira, com muita instabilidade nos níveis altos, mas uma camada de ar seco com origem no norte de África nos níveis médios (e com poeiras) a inibir a convecção, pelo que se pode esperar no máximo nuvens de base muito alta (altocumulus e afins) e potencialmente pingas de lama. A partir de 5a feira à tarde e até domingo os perfis tornam-se mais húmidos a todos os níveis, sem inibição, e vão existir condições de instabilidade para aguaceiros fortes, trovoada e granizo em praticamente todo o continente.
DISCUSSION
... Portugal and parts of Spain ...
Downstream of a vertically stacked vortex W of Morocco/Portugal, a fetch of subtropical air gets drawn towards the Iberian Peninsula and mixes a bit with a N-ward advecting EML from Morocco/Algeria. The overlap won't be impressive but adequate for some diurnal driven MUCAPE build-up over S/CNTRL Portugal and SW Spain. NWP guidance agrees well with this scenario although mid-level lapse rates from ICON come in a tad weaker than IFS/GFS which impacts final CAPE magnitude.
A cyclonic SW-erly flow regime affects the area during the day and embedded low-amplitude waves add some temporal enhanced background QG forcing, although latest data hints at a lull around noon. The airmass becomes virtually uncapped towards Portugal with ongoing slight CIN issues further E towards S-CNTRL Spain.
CAPE/shear space features modest MUCAPE (300-700 J/kg) everywhere with increasing shear from W to E.
Clustering multicells bring some heavy rain and graupel/isolated hail to S Portugal during the day. Slightly improving DLS to 15 m/s during the afternoon also adds a low-end tornado threat mainly to S-Portugal, where LCLs remain rather low. The activity spreads N but weakens betimes as we move into the evening hours with a more stable BL. The risk keeps going over far S Portugal, where best BL moisture offsets rather weak mid-level lapse rates, offering some overnight MUCAPE.
With collapsing shear and storm motion vectors around 5 m/s, heavy rain becomes the dominant issue towards CNTRL Portugal during the night. We added a level 1 to the S part of Portugal for an isolated severe risk and upgraded also parts of CNTRL Portugal for the overnight rainfall threat (mainly driven by IFS/ICON). The latter level area however is an uncertain/marginal one for now and remains displaced from the highest soil moisture anomalies and precipitation amounts from the past weeks.
Further E towards SW/S-CNTRL Spain, kinematics improve substantially. IFS/GFS both indicate a weak inversion in the H7-H75 hPa layer, which could turn onshore moving convection more elevated betimes. In addition, CI seems suppressed a bit towards noon with NWP spread thereafter. Right now we issued a broad level 1 along the corridor of best CAPE/shear overlap in an uncapped airmass. Multicells and a few supercells are forecast with some hail/gust and an isolated tornado with the main focus from Sevilla/Cordoba N to Caceres and potentially into the Madrid area. Some point-source forecast soundings within this sector feature long hodograph signatures with lots of LL SR inflow into potentially deviating storms. This setup has to be monitored closely regarding final CAPE magnitude/CIN strength in further model updates as not much modification is needed for a rather healthy CAPE/shear space.
The level 1 was expanded well E to account for more elevated thunderstorms with some hail risk.
... Other lightning areas ...
A few areas with thunderstorm activity are forecast. This convection should stay sub-severe however. A rather broad high prob. lightning area was added for the Bay of Biscay. This accounts for an NW ward sliding upper low, which could spark a few storms on the regional scale. Ongoing cross-track spread of IFS/GFS keeps this lightning area rather broad for now.
... Portugal and parts of Spain ...
Downstream of a vertically stacked vortex W of Morocco/Portugal, a fetch of subtropical air gets drawn towards the Iberian Peninsula and mixes a bit with a N-ward advecting EML from Morocco/Algeria. The overlap won't be impressive but adequate for some diurnal driven MUCAPE build-up over S/CNTRL Portugal and SW Spain. NWP guidance agrees well with this scenario although mid-level lapse rates from ICON come in a tad weaker than IFS/GFS which impacts final CAPE magnitude.
A cyclonic SW-erly flow regime affects the area during the day and embedded low-amplitude waves add some temporal enhanced background QG forcing, although latest data hints at a lull around noon. The airmass becomes virtually uncapped towards Portugal with ongoing slight CIN issues further E towards S-CNTRL Spain.
CAPE/shear space features modest MUCAPE (300-700 J/kg) everywhere with increasing shear from W to E.
Clustering multicells bring some heavy rain and graupel/isolated hail to S Portugal during the day. Slightly improving DLS to 15 m/s during the afternoon also adds a low-end tornado threat mainly to S-Portugal, where LCLs remain rather low. The activity spreads N but weakens betimes as we move into the evening hours with a more stable BL. The risk keeps going over far S Portugal, where best BL moisture offsets rather weak mid-level lapse rates, offering some overnight MUCAPE.
With collapsing shear and storm motion vectors around 5 m/s, heavy rain becomes the dominant issue towards CNTRL Portugal during the night. We added a level 1 to the S part of Portugal for an isolated severe risk and upgraded also parts of CNTRL Portugal for the overnight rainfall threat (mainly driven by IFS/ICON). The latter level area however is an uncertain/marginal one for now and remains displaced from the highest soil moisture anomalies and precipitation amounts from the past weeks.
Further E towards SW/S-CNTRL Spain, kinematics improve substantially. IFS/GFS both indicate a weak inversion in the H7-H75 hPa layer, which could turn onshore moving convection more elevated betimes. In addition, CI seems suppressed a bit towards noon with NWP spread thereafter. Right now we issued a broad level 1 along the corridor of best CAPE/shear overlap in an uncapped airmass. Multicells and a few supercells are forecast with some hail/gust and an isolated tornado with the main focus from Sevilla/Cordoba N to Caceres and potentially into the Madrid area. Some point-source forecast soundings within this sector feature long hodograph signatures with lots of LL SR inflow into potentially deviating storms. This setup has to be monitored closely regarding final CAPE magnitude/CIN strength in further model updates as not much modification is needed for a rather healthy CAPE/shear space.
The level 1 was expanded well E to account for more elevated thunderstorms with some hail risk.
... Other lightning areas ...
A few areas with thunderstorm activity are forecast. This convection should stay sub-severe however. A rather broad high prob. lightning area was added for the Bay of Biscay. This accounts for an NW ward sliding upper low, which could spark a few storms on the regional scale. Ongoing cross-track spread of IFS/GFS keeps this lightning area rather broad for now.
StormRic
Furacão
Litoral Centro está a ser a região privilegiada quanto a trovoadas, chuva forte e algum granizo. Poucas células mas atingindo perto do topo da escala dos ecos.
StormRic
Furacão
Quais?
O dinâmico do continente tem estado sempre actualizado (cerca de 10 minutos).
Não será por causa da mudança da hora?
StormRic
Furacão
Mas essa mudança já foi há muito tempo, ainda em Março.
Atenção que por exemplo o Sat 24 tem afixada nas imagens a hora já mudada (UTC+1) mas todos os produtos do IPMA, sublinho todos, mantém sempre UTC+0.
Se não houver alternativa de inteligência artificial, o GFS ainda vai acabar por ser uma valente trampa.
Felizmente para eles, todos os 4 novos satélites já estão em órbita
https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-seeks-end-climate-research-premier-u-s-climate-agency
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-federal-expenditures-in-real-time/
Felizmente para eles, todos os 4 novos satélites já estão em órbita
https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-seeks-end-climate-research-premier-u-s-climate-agency https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-federal-expenditures-in-real-time/
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